Crypto is near bear market territory

Crypto is flirting with, or potentially has crossed into bear market territory. A bear market is usually defined as a market index or asset class dropping by 20% from its nominal high trading value. Usually this is based on the price at the close of trading days. However most crypto currencies trade 24/7 so that complicates things a bit. That said, the by far largest crypto currency is Bitcoin  which reached a nominal high just north of $103k per unit in the aftermath of Donald Trump's re-election. During intraday trading today it fell to ~$82.2k which would meet the technical definition for a bear market. As of this comment, it is currently trading at just over $83k.  

Economists are sounding the alarm

Donald Trump’s assault on the US federal government and the world’s interlinked manufacturing system have together reached an economic tipping point.

“It seems almost unavoidable that we are headed for a deep, deep recession,” said Jesse Rothstein, Berkeley professor and former chief economist at the US labour department.

Once the pace of job losses crosses a critical line, the multiplier effects can snowball suddenly.

Prof Rothstein said monthly non-farm payrolls – the barometer of US economic health watched closely by markets – could turn viciously negative by late spring, contracting at rates surpassed only during the worst months of Covid and the Lehman crisis in 2008.

“I think we’re going to see historically large drops. Losses of 400,000 a month are not implausible because people are getting nervous out there.

“It is not just the federal employees being fired: it’s all the other people worried they could be next, so they are cutting back too,” he told The Telegraph.

Torsten Slok, of Apollo Global, said layoffs could approach 1m after factoring in the likely chain reaction through contractors. “We are starting to worry about the downside risks to the economy and markets,” he said.

Mr Slok said it is a mystery as to why credit spreads and equities are still so well-behaved when the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index was now higher than at any time during the great recession.

Read the rest here.

Hello Utah...

"This is RFK Jr, the Secretary of Health calling. I wanted to talk to you about something important..."

RIP: Clint Hill

An American hero. He spent much of his life consumed by guilt (unfairly) for not being a split second faster.

Trump has switched sides

The US formally voted against a UN resolution labeling Russia as an aggressor state and demanding their withdrawal from Ukraine. All while demanding roughly half of Ukraine's GDP and natural resources in exchange for what one administration official described as "implied security guarantees." Trump's track record does not suggest much respect for the word "implied."  

Never in my life did I think I would live to see a US president, of either political party, reduce himself and this country to being the shoe-shine boy for a KGB dictator bent on restoring the Soviet Empire by force and terror. Ronald Reagan must be spinning in his grave.

Attention NATO; the United States of America has left the building. 

Boston in 1903

Sunday of the Last Judgement (Meatfare)

Pope Francis' Condition Worsens

ROME — Pope Francis was in critical condition Saturday after he suffered a long asthmatic respiratory crisis that required high flows of oxygen, the Vatican said.

The 88-year-old Francis, who has been hospitalized for a week with a complex lung infection, also received blood transfusions after tests showed a condition associated with anemia, the Vatican said in a late update.

“The Holy Father continues to be alert and spent the day in an armchair although in more pain than yesterday. At the moment the prognosis is reserved,” the statement said.

Earlier, doctors said that Francis was battling a pneumonia and a complex respiratory infection that doctors say remains touch-and-go and will keep him hospitalized for at least another week.

The Vatican carried on with its Holy Year celebrations without the pope on Saturday.

In a brief earlier update on Saturday, Francis slept well overnight.

But doctors have warned that the main threat facing Francis would be the onset of sepsis, a serious infection of the blood that can occur as a complication of pneumonia. As of Friday, there was no evidence of any sepsis, and Francis was responding to the various drugs he is taking, the pope’s medical team said in their first in-depth update on the pope’s condition.

“He is not out of danger,” said his personal physician, Dr. Luigi Carbone. “So like all fragile patients I say they are always on the golden scale: In other words, it takes very little to become unbalanced.”

Francis, who has chronic lung disease, was admitted to Gemelli hospital on Feb. 14 after a weeklong bout of bronchitis worsened.

Doctors first diagnosed the complex viral, bacterial and fungal respiratory tract infection and then the onset of pneumonia in both lungs. They prescribed “absolute rest” and a combination of cortisone and antibiotics, along with supplemental oxygen when he needs it.

Read the rest here

Crime & Punishment

Pope Francis, sensing he is close to death, moves to protect his legacy (Updates as they come in)

...Even if Francis survives his latest illness, observers see this as a likely turning point as Francis shifts focus from making headway on reform to locking it in. “He may not die now but of course he eventually will,” said one Vatican official. “We all die — and he’s an 88-year-old man with lung problems.”

Read the rest here.

Update: The Vatican reports that the Pope has double pneumonia. This is in addition to his previously diagnosed polymicrobial infection. Given his age and history of health problems, I think this must now be regarded as a serious medical situation. 

Update II: Via Rorate a report that RAI (Italy's public broadcasting giant) has placed it's Vatican broadcast service under alert for a potential major news announcement. 

Update III: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has visited the Pope and says he is alert and in good spirits.

Update IV: The Vatican reported on Wednesday evening a "slight improvement" in the Pope's condition.

Moving Fast, Breaking Things, and the Oath of Office

In a remark that might seem to sum up Congress’s current approach to its oversight role, Sen. Thom Tillis (R‑NC) acknowledged the other day that the Trump administration’s opening moves to cut spending and do away with agencies without congressional approval were in some cases not lawful, but said, “Nobody should bellyache about that.” In particular, he said, “That runs afoul of the Constitution in the strictest sense. But it’s not uncommon for presidents to flex a little bit on where they can spend and where they can stop spending.” (I briefly summarized the ongoing lawbreaking spree in this space on Monday, and further likely illegalities have come to light since then.)

One group of thinkers who were given to bellyache when officials acted in unconstitutional ways were the framers of the Constitution, who had in recent memory the “long train of abuses and usurpations” committed in the name of the British crown. To guard against a repeat, they provided in Article II, Section 1, that the president take the following oath: “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” In Article VI, along with declaring that the Constitution “shall be the supreme law of the land,” they provided that Sen. Tillis, along with all his legislative colleagues, “be bound by oath or affirmation to support this Constitution.” 

A lot of good that seems to have done. 

Read the rest here.

Trump Wants Ukraine as a US Colony

Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.

The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv.

The Telegraph has obtained a draft of the pre-decisional contract, marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”.

The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states.

The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licences issued to third parties” for the future monetisation of resources. There will be “a lien on such revenues” in favour of the US. “That clause means ‘pay us first, and then feed your children’,” said one source close to the negotiations.

It states that “for all future licences, the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals”. Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy. The fund “shall have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licences and projects. And so forth, in this vein. It seems to have been written by private lawyers, not the US departments of state or commerce.

Read the rest here.

I think we now what Trump's "peace plan" is. It is the partitioning of Ukraine between Russia and the US. Reminds me of the Hitler-Stalin Pact in 1939.

Sunday of the Prodigal Son

In a rare coincidence Pascha (Easter) falls on the same day this year, April 20th, for both Orthodox and Western Christians. It will not happen again until 2034. Today also marks the beginning of "meatfare" week.

Quote of the day...

“He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.” 

 -Widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte and just posted by President Donald Trump on his social media account.

‘Canada First’ Conservatives primed for Trump fight

OTTAWA — Canada’s Conservative leader used a rally in Ottawa on Saturday to deliver a message to Donald Trump. “Let me be clear: We will never be the 51st state,” said Pierre Poilievre, warning that he is prepared to defend Canadians against the president at all costs.

“We will bear any burden and pay any price to protect the sovereignty and independence of our country,” he said.

The populist leader had been long favored to win Canada’s next federal election, which could come as soon as spring. But the race has been complicated by the arrival of Trump and by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to step down as soon as his Liberal Party chooses a new leader next month.

Poilievre, who has appealed to Canadians by tackling complex issues with pithy slogans, used a Flag Day rally to reset his campaign in response to tariff threats that have scrambled the political landscape.

Trump has pledged to slap Canada with 25 percent tariffs in response to a growing list of grievances. It started with complaints about what Canadian leaders say are small amounts of fentanyl and illegal migration entering the U.S. from Canada, but has since expanded to include banking, and the trade deficit.

“We are slow to anger and quick to forgive. But never confuse our kindness for weakness,” Poilievre said about Canada. “We are mild-mannered and made of steel.”

Poilievre had focused his “change” campaign on overturning Trudeau’s carbon policy. However since the start of Trump’s trade war a new ballot box question has emerged: Which Canadian leader will best defend their interests against the U.S.?

At his “Canada First” rally, Poilievre tackled the question head-on, laying out his vision for the country should he become prime minister, while leaning heavily on Canadian symbols and its history. He promised to “end cancel culture,” restore national monuments and make it a criminal offense to deface them, to expand Canada’s military and to update the citizenship oath with more patriotic language.

“Sometimes it does take a threat to remind us what we have, what we could lose and what we could become,” Poilievre said, pointing to an upsurge in patriotism.

The Conservative leader said Trump has two options: Work with Canada, or lose it as a friend.

As he defined the choices, Poilievre spoke directly to Americans, saying their “energy-hungry future” can not exist without Canada or its oil, gas and critical minerals. He argued that America’s defense is dependent on Canada’s North.

“Carry out the unprovoked attack on our economy and your consumers will pay more and your workers will make less,” Poilievre said. “Gas prices will skyrocket. You will turn a loyal friend into a resentful neighbor, forced to match tariff with tariff and to seek friends elsewhere. Both our economies will weaken, leaving less money for defense and security and our enemies will grow stronger.”

Read the rest here.

When you manage to p*** off Canada, you know you have accomplished something. And oh my but they are not happy. Canadians are boycotting American goods, cancelling vacations to the US and booing our national anthem at sporting events. Since the Second World War the Unites States has managed to accumulate a staggering amount of good will globally. I'm not sure what their objective is, but the current administration with it's bullying behavior and rhetoric seems intent on pouring gasoline all over that and tossing a match. 

More Admirals than Ships?

Pope Francis Hospitalized

Pope Francis, who was admitted to a hospital in Rome for bronchitis, is in “fair” condition with a “respiratory tract infection,” the Vatican said Friday in what is the latest in a string of ailments that have raised concerns about the 88-year-old pontiff’s health.

Earlier on Friday, the Vatican said Pope Francis was admitted to Agostino Gemelli Polyclinic in Rome. He was there “for some necessary diagnostic tests and to continue in a hospital setting treatment for bronchitis that is still ongoing,” the Vatican said. They later confirmed he was in the facility, and that he had canceled his meetings for the next three days.

Francis has made a number of visits to the hospital in recent years, and received abdominal surgery in 2023. He has been struggling with bronchitis in recent weeks and has asked aides to read speeches and addresses.

Read the rest here.

The Principled Resignation

Take notes please. This is how it's done.

What we have here is a Justice Department using its prosecutorial powers and discretion as an instrument of political extortion. The DOJ should be sanctioned. The Attorney General, and all those involved in this affront to the rule of law, should be disbarred for official misconduct and corruption. As much as I think Mayor Adams was very probably guilty as sin, the judge should dismiss all charges against him with prejudice to prevent any further abuse of power by the DOJ in that direction. Whether or not these orders originated in the White House is unclear. Unfortunately, with this Congress no investigation is likely to be undertaken. 

Trump Names His Price

American support for Ukraine has a price tag: $500B worth of mineral riches, said U.S. President Donald Trump. In the second part of an interview with Fox News that aired late Monday, the Republican said the U.S. should get a slice of Ukraine’s vast natural resources as compensation for the hundreds of billions it has spent on helping Kyiv resist Russia's full-scale invasion. “I told them [Ukraine] that I want the equivalent like $500B worth of rare earth. And they've essentially agreed to do that so at least we don’t feel stupid,” Trump said.

Read the rest here.

I love my country, though there are a few aspects of America's distant past that do not exactly fill me with pride. I expect that is broadly true everywhere. And of course, we all have the routine differences in political matters. But until quite recently, and conceding the exception of legalized abortion on demand, I have never felt outright shame for my country for anything it has done in my lifetime. This is a new, and altogether unwelcome sensation. 

Breaking: Trump to Order DOJ to Cease Enforcement of Federal Bribery Law

President Donald Trump is set Monday to sign an executive order directing the Department of Justice to pause enforcing a nearly half-century-old law that prohibits American companies and foreign firms from bribing officials of foreign governments to obtain or retain business.

The Authoritarian Checklist

What are the Core Attributes of Authoritarianism?

• Rejecting established democratic rules and norms.
• Denying the legitimacy of opponents.
• Tolerating or encouraging political violence.
• Curtailing the civil liberties of opponents.
• Breaking down social cohesion to divide and rule a society.

What are the Top 11 Elements of the Authoritarian Playbook?

• Divide and rule: Foment mistrust and fear in the population.
• Spread lies and conspiracy theories: Undermine the public’s belief in truth.
• Destroy checks and balances: Use legal or pseudo-legal rationales to gut institutions, weaken opposition, and/or declare national emergencies to seize unconstitutional powers.
• Demonize opponents: Undermine the public’s trust in those actors and institutions that hold the state accountable. Intimidate or suppress news/media outlets that fail to demonstrate sufficient loyalty to the regime.
• Undermine civil and political rights for the unaligned: Actively suppress free speech, the right to assembly and protest and the rights of minority groups.
• Blame minorities, immigrants, and “outsiders” for a country’s problems: Exploit national humiliation while promising to restore national glory.
• Reward loyalists and punish defectors: Make in-group members fearful to voice dissension.
• Encourage or condone violence to advance political goals: Dehumanize opposition and/or out-groups to justify violence against them.
• Organize mass rallies to keep supporters mobilized against made-up threats: Use fearmongering and hate speech to consolidate in-group identity and solidarity.
• Make people feel like they are powerless to change things: Solutions will only come from the top. 
• Place fanatical loyalists in charge of the armed forces, law enforcement and all other aspects of state security. Their loyalty is to the regime/leader, not the rule of law or the constitution.

At this point, I believe the Trump Administration meets most, but not quite all of the above criteria.

Trump, Vance Question Authority of the Courts

WASHINGTON (AP) — Top Trump administration officials are openly questioning the judiciary’s authority to serve as a check on executive power as the new president’s sweeping agenda faces growing pushback from the courts.

Over the past 24 hours, officials ranging from billionaire Elon Musk to Vice President JD Vance have not only criticized a federal judge’s decision early Saturday that blocks Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency from accessing Treasury Department records, but have also attacked the legitimacy of judicial oversight, a fundamental pillar of American democracy, which is based on the separation of powers.

“If a judge tried to tell a general how to conduct a military operation, that would be illegal. If a judge tried to command the attorney general in how to use her discretion as a prosecutor, that’s also illegal. Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power,” Vance wrote on X on Sunday morning.

That post came hours after Musk said overnight that the judge who ruled against him should be impeached.

“A corrupt judge protecting corruption. He needs to be impeached NOW!” said Musk, who has been tasked by President Donald Trump with rooting out waste across the federal government.

Read the rest here.

The constitutional crisis is accelerating, almost by the minute.