The Republican Naderites

John McCain effectively sealed the GOP nomination for the presidency of the United States yesterday with the withdrawal of Gov. Romney. This was swiftly followed by the predictable howls of rage from the far right wing of the Republican Party. I for one am delighted. I have long been a bit of a fan of Senator McCain even though I do disagree with him from time to time. I find a man who is willing to put principal over party loyalty and patriotism over political expediency both refreshing and sadly rare among those who serve in Sodom on the Potomac. That’s not the only reason I am delighted though.

For some years I have been increasingly concerned with the growing influence of the radical right wing of the party. They are what I have hitherto referred to as the 100%ers. As in you're 100% with us or 100% against us. They are characterized by people like radio talk show hosts Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck and by those who hang out on right wing political websites like Free Republic. One can also include in this group various elements of the Protestant Evangelical movement like Dr. James Dobson and the late Rev. Jerry Falwell. Their influence has I think been by and large unhealthy. It has greatly contributed to the sense of politics no longer being about public service and more about a perpetual state of war with power being the ultimate goal, along with the annihilation of the “enemy.” “Enemy” being more often Democrats and liberals than Islamic Jihadists.

Their take no prisoners approach to politics has been profoundly harmful to the American ideal of liberal (in the classical sense of the term) democracy. Gone are the days when a Jefferson could write “I do not agree with what you say but will defend to the death your right to say it.” Now we live in an age where, at least on Free Republic, expressing a politically incorrect thought will get you labeled as a traitor and produce calls for your execution. In fairness the Democrats have their own extremists on the political left. And their own web sites that they tend to gravitate towards. And the harm they have done is also visible with their vicious attacks on the character of anyone slightly to the right of Gus Hall. Also like our own 100%ers they have in the past done much injury to their own party by maintaining a degree of influence over it that is vastly disproportionate to their numbers.

But tonight I am celebrating. For the first time in a while I entertain real hope that the strangle hold the far right has exercised over the GOP may be about to be severely weakened. A significant number of the right wing are so furious that McCain is going to be the GOP nominee that they are threatening to sit the election out or support a third party candidate. The general theory behind this is that after the GOP gets its clock cleaned in November everyone will remember who is really calling the shots and will be appropriately deferential to the Free Republic types in future elections. However I think they have gravely miscalculated.

First if McCain does loose in November (a very real possibility) there is likely going to be a hunt for those responsible. My guess is that there will be a great deal of finger pointing (there always is after a lost election, just ask the Democrats). And the far right and Evangelical Protestant mafia are in the process of painting a giant bull’s eye on themselves. Again look at what happened in 2000 and again in 2004. Large numbers of the left wing of the Democratic Party who were mightily displeased with the “moderate” and “centrist” policies of the Clinton Administration defected and backed Ralph Nader. In 2000 this undoubtedly cost Al Gore the election. In ’04 a strong argument could be made that it also severely hurt John Kerry bid for election which was lost by a whisker. The recriminations were swift and furious against the far left, who basically threw a temper tantrum and decided they would teach their fellow Democrats a lesson by handing the country to George W Bush for what turned out to be eight years.

There are of course a couple of important differences between Democrats and Republicans though. One of them being that Democrats tend to be somwhat forgiving of disloyalty to the party. Republicans by and large are not (just ask John McCain). My guess is that rather than the vast majority of mainline conservatives crawling back to the far right and begging them to come home again after a McCain defeat that they will anathematize the “traitors.” The GOP party establishment will waste no time in planting the blame directly on the shoulders of those who are even as I type doing all in their power to undermine McCain’s chances of election in November. The vast majority of the party will never forgive them for putting the Clintons back in the White House. Nor should they.

But there is another possible way that the GOP’s Naderites could be in the process of hanging themselves. What if McCain wins?

OK. Have you stopped laughing yet? Good.

Because it’s not at all certain that he will loose. I will be the first to admit that it’s not looking good this year in terms of the temperament of the country. Most Americans (including yours truly) have had enough of G. W. Bush and am more than ready to see the backside of him. The war is unpopular, the economy appears to be going south, and Lyndon Johnson has a stronger claim to being a fiscal conservative than this president. These are all elements which do not give rise to any sanguine sentiments for the future. But there are some favorable signs that many are missing.

The Democrats have never met an opportunity that they could not come up with a way to blow. And they may be in the process of doing just that. It’s early February and John McCain is now clearly the nominee presumptive of the GOP. But it will be April at the earliest before the Democrats have a clue who their nominee will be. Right now it’s locked in a dead heat between Obama and Clinton. Both camps are digging deep for money, money that will not be available for the general election in November. And the longer this two way race goes on the more bitter it is likely to get. It is not at all beyond the realm of possibility that the Democrats may be on their way to a brokered convention with fully 40% of their delegates being so called super delegates. That is essentially party big shots and members of Congress etc. And it may fall on them to hand the nomination to one or the other. I am hard pressed to think of a faster way to alienate the followers of the loosing candidate.

But I can think of one way. Michigan and Florida both have been disqualified and their delegates barred because they violated party rules and scheduled early primaries. Hillary Clinton broke (at least in spirit) the pledge signed by all the candidates not to participate in those primaries. She won them both and is now demanding that their delegates be seated at the convention. That would give her an extra 300+ delegates and a credible edge over Obama. Maybe even enough of an edge to convince the super delegates to hand her the nomination. The resulting row could make the one in the GOP look like a disagreement over whether to have Italian or Chinese take out for dinner.

And while the Democrats are slugging it out McCain will be raising money and spreading his message. It needs to be remembered that McCain’s various and well publicized fights with the President and other members of his own party may give him some level of immunity from the hostility that many voters have felt towards the way the Republicans have been running things for eight years. He has always been very popular with moderates and independents and he may also draw off some conservative Democrats, especially if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. It might be enough to counterbalance those extreme conservatives who are busy taking “the pledge” over at Free Republic and elsewhere (“I will under no circumstances vote for John McCain.”).

So what do these people think will be their level of influence in the administration of a man who they are doing their level best to bury, should he actually win? Let's just say that they should forget sitting out the election. They had better actually go out and vote for Hillary or Obama. If McCain wins the only way Rush and Dr. Dobson will see the inside of the White House for the next four to eight years is going to be if they stand in line with the tourists.

Yes, I am cautiously optimistic that the long reign of the radical right over the GOP may be finally about to be curbed. Let’s just hope that the price for breaking their malicious lock on power is not eight more years of the Clintons renting out the Lincoln Bedroom at the White House. And I don’t even want to think about the Supreme Court justices they will nominate.