Catholics, Trump and Russia

Put not thy trust in presidents...

Trump's Assault on the Rule of Law via Abuse of the Pardon

President Trump is employing the vast power of his office to redefine criminality to suit his needs — using pardons to inoculate criminals he happens to like, downplaying corruption and fraud as crimes, and seeking to stigmatize political opponents by labeling them criminals.

In the past few days, Mr. Trump has offered pardons or clemency to more than two dozen people embraced by his obstreperous right-wing base, or favored by people in his orbit. Most are political allies, some are former officeholders accused of abusing power for personal gain, and almost all were convicted of white-collar crimes like fraud, tax evasion and campaign finance violations — not far removed from accusations Mr. Trump himself has faced.

“No MAGA left behind,” crowed Ed Martin, the pardon attorney at the Justice Department who suggested that the department should investigate Mr. Trump’s adversaries to shame them if there was insufficient evidence to charge them.

Mr. Trump has used his pardon power, like nearly every other executive tool in his kit, to assert personal dominance over processes generally, if not always, governed by established ethical and institutional guardrails. He professes to abide by the rule of law, but has often shown a willingness to do so only when he defines the rules and the laws.

Mr. Trump has said the current wave of pardons is justified by President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s last-minute reprieves for inmates on federal death row, and pardons he issued to his family — which Mr. Trump called “disgraceful.”

Yet, critics say, Mr. Trump has used the pardon powers of the presidency not to settle accounts, as Mr. Biden did, but to burn the ledger.

“Granting pardons or commuting sentences of public officials or other white-collar criminals convicted of fraud, tax evasion and other breaches of trust is likely to have the effect of normalizing nonviolent crimes,” said Barbara L. McQuade, a University of Michigan law professor who served as a U.S. attorney in the state during the Obama administration.

“Of course, stealing by fraud is still stealing,” she added. “It’s just that this is the way rich people do it.”

Mr. Trump made no secret of his intention to seek retribution against those who prosecuted him at the local, state and federal levels, whom he has described collectively as “scum.” The new pardons are necessary to right the wrongs of a politicized Biden Justice Department that twice indicted him, he has claimed.

Read the rest here.

Urgent Prayers

I do not know the details, however there are widespread reports that an Egyptian court has issued a ruling allowing the government to seize St. Catherine's Monastery in Sinai. This apparently includes all of its property, ancient treasures, manuscripts, icons &c. It would also involve the eviction of the monks. As of this post, the reports are somewhat contradictory, with some being quite alarming and others suggesting that Egypt has no plans to seize the ancient monastery. Updates will be posted as more information becomes available.

HT: Blog reader John L.

Update: Good news. It looks like this was a false alarm. Recent reports and statements from the Egyptian government are categorically denying any change in the monastery's status. 

I promise you free this, that, and the other thing.

Just don't check my math.

Memory Eternal

Why King Charles III is Opening Canada's Parliament

TORONTO (AP) — King Charles III is coming to Canada to deliver a message: Canada is a sovereign nation distinct from the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated suggestion that the U.S. annex its northern neighbor prompted new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to invite Charles to give the speech from the throne on Tuesday where he will lay out the Canadian government’s agenda when Parliament reopens.

The monarch is the head of state in Canada, which is a member of the British Commonwealth of former colonies.

“Canada has a steadfast defender in our sovereign,” Carney said when he announced the visit earlier this month.

Read the rest here.

Traveling

I will be traveling throughout this week. Absent something significant, there will be few or no blog posts during this time frame. Also comment moderation and responses to emails may be a bit slow. Bear with me.

Mr. Biden

On May 19, 2024 the NY Times ran a an op-ed piece under the following headline...

Seven Theories for Why Biden Is Losing (and What He Should Do About It)

To which I posted the following comment...

Politically, it would be helpful if the Democrats did not nominate a man who is in his 80's, with the demeanor of a man in in his 90s.

Seriously. Can we take a moment to address the elephant in the living room? Life expectancy for the average adult male in the US is 77(ish). If he is re-elected, he would be almost ten years beyond that point at the end of his second term of office. Even assuming he is in excellent health for a man of his age, and I have no reason to believe he isn't, you just cannot make safe assumptions about someone's long term health once they get into their 80s. Given his age and the average life expectancy of people who do make it into their early 80s, statistics suggest that the odds of Mr. Biden being able to complete another four years as president are not good. Once you get to that age, things do start to go wrong. 

I think we would have to go back to 1944 for the last time a major party nominated someone who was less likely to be able to serve a full four-year term as president. And in fact, FDR died just months into his fourth term. I don't know who the next president will be. But if Mr. Biden wins the election; I suspect the next president after him will be Kamala Harris.

Obviously, a great deal has transpired since then.  

The Grifter N Chief

Donald Trump caught his first sight of the so-called “palace in the sky” in February as he climbed the red-carpeted steps of the Boeing 747-8.

The Qatari plane was parked at Florida’s West Palm Beach International Airport, and offered a chance for the president to see what a newly refitted Air Force One could look like, easing his frustration with the long-delayed Boeing project.

In the event, it appears to have been more of a test drive. His administration’s plan to accept the $400m (£300m) luxury jet from the Qatari royal family, which he is expected to use after his presidency, is the latest example of what many view as an increased disregard for ethics in Washington under his second term.

During his first term in the White House, foreign governments buying meals and block-booking rooms at Trump hotels set alarm bells ringing.

Yet now the president has created even more opportunities for those looking to curry favour with him – and his children. From pay-to-dine cryptocurrency schemes, a new social media platform that carries advertising and the expansion of their property empire, it has never seemed easier for the Trump family to line their pockets.

“If I had seen it [examples of this behaviour], I would have remembered it, and maybe that just shows they were better at concealing it, because this term, it’s just blatant,” says a former cabinet member during Trump’s first term.

“The kids in particular ... this is about making money. You’re dealing with royal families, and they understand how families work, and that’s the way Trump plays the game. He may not have to say anything himself, they may do it all through the kids.”

Trump’s oldest sons, Donald Jr and Eric, have travelled the globe flogging their fathers name by expanding their property empire during his second term. The president’s children have also been raking in cash from business deals in the Middle East struck before the president’s diplomatic trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates last week.

“We’ve never seen anything like this in American history,” says Norm Eisen, a former White House ethics tsar.

Even for Trump’s staunchest supporters, accepting a multimillion-dollar luxury jet from the royal family of Qatar – a nation that has in the past acted as key financier for Hamas – is a bitter pill to swallow.

“This is probably the first issue of this administration where a lot of my listeners who get mad at me for criticising Trump actually totally agreed that this is a bad idea,” says Erick Erickson, a conservative radio host and long-time voice of the Right.

“It’s been hard to find Trump supporters who think this is a good idea, except for anonymous accounts on Twitter.”

Laura Loomer, a prominent Right-wing activist and Trump loyalist, wrote on X: “The Qataris fund the same Iranian proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah who have murdered US service members. The same proxies that have worked with the Mexican cartels to get jihadists across our border.

“This is really going to be such a stain on the admin if this is true. And I say that as someone who would take a bullet for Trump.”

Ben Shapiro, one of the most loyal soldiers in the Maga cavalry, said on his podcast this week: “I think if we switched the names to Hunter Biden and Joe Biden, we’d all be freaking out on the Right.”

Read the rest here.

Moody's Downgrades US Credit Rating

Moody’s Ratings slashed the United State’s credit rating down a notch to Aa1 from the highest triple A on Friday, citing the budgetary burden the government faces amid high interest rates.

“This one-notch downgrade on our 21-notch rating scale reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns,” the ratings agency said in a statement.

The U.S. is running a massive budget deficit as interest costs for Treasury debt continued to rise due to a combination of higher interest rates and more debt to finance. The fiscal deficit totaled $1.05 trillion year to date, 13% higher than a year ago. The influx in tariffs helped shave some of the imbalance last month, however.

Moody’s had been a holdout in keeping U.S. sovereign debt at the highest credit rating possible, and brings the 116-year-old agency into line with its rivals. Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. to AA+ from AAA in August 2011, and Fitch Ratings also cut the U.S. rating to AA+ from AAA, in August 2023.

Read the rest here.

Long overdue.

Perks now, pain later

For all four years of Donald Trump’s presidency — and those years only — Americans would enjoy benefits like no taxes on tips or overtime, under the massive party-line legislation House Republicans are trying to pass this month.

Then it won’t be until 2029, when congressional GOP incumbents have already run for reelection and Trump is gone from the White House, that voters feel the sting from many of the “pay-fors.” That includes much of the Medicaid cuts estimated to strip health care coverage from more than 10 million people, plus the nixing of clean energy tax perks Democrats created during the Biden administration.

In each slice of the megabill House Republicans are working to tie up this week, policies would kick in immediately that curry favor with voters and add trillions of dollars to the federal deficit — before those costs are ultimately offset with unpopular policies that hit after the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election.

Read the rest here.

What I'm Reading

I just finished "The Great Depression: A Diary" by Benjamin Roth. Roth was a young lawyer with a family in Youngstown Ohio. In 1931 he realized that he was living through historic times and started keeping a diary containing observations about what was going on locally, as well as in the broader world. Originally intended to chronical the economic calamity of the 1930s, he ended up continuing for the rest of his life. This book only covers the period up to America's entry into the World War. Roth's entries are not daily, but sporadic depending on what was going on and what his thoughts were. The book presents a very powerful picture from someone who fell between the very poor and those few who were sufficiently well off that they could ride out the depression with little impact on their lives. The professional men  suffered because clients, or patients for doctors who could actually pay for services were rare. Often business was conducted on a barter basis. Roth's son, who arranged for the publication of the book posthumously noted that at one point things were so desperate his father had to borrow money against his life insurance policy in order to keep food on the table and a roof over his family. Much of the book contains Roth's thoughts as he attempts to make sense of the disaster and what could be done to prevent or mitigate future similar events. 

A rock ribbed Republican, Roth supported Herbert Hoover's insistence on avoiding debt and defending the gold standard. Once FDR abandons gold he can't understand why the country isn't wiped out by hyperinflation. Periodically Roth recorded current stock prices with astonishment as blue chip securities slid to levels that were unimaginable just a few years before. He complained that he wished he had money to take advantage of what he believed to be fire sale bargains as the markets rally, only to watch them crash again to even lower levels. 

Perhaps the most powerful elements of his diary were his descriptions of local conditions. The book contains many personal stories of friends and acquaintances who eschewed conservative investments like government bonds during the good years in favor of stocks and real estate, both of which became almost worthless during the dark days of the depression.  Youngstown was an industrial city that was hit incredibly hard. He writes of businesses shuttering, and people being evicted from their homes because they can't pay the mortgage or rent. And then the houses sit empty as nobody can afford them even at rock bottom prices. A good deal of attention is focused on the collapse of the banks, this being before deposits were insured. 

In one entry from the winter of 1931, Roth records that hours before dawn there were several thousand men lined up outside city hall hoping for a day's work. The entry ends with; "There is great suffering."

The Most Corrupt President in US History (Yet Again)

The royal family of Qatar is planning to gift President Trump a brand new luxury Boeing 747 for use as Air Force 1, and for his private use after leaving office. The bill for the necessary upgrades in security, communications etc., will presumably be footed by the American taxpayer. Of course this is illegal under the US Constitution but Trump and his lawyers have a plan to get around that. The Qataris will officially gift the plane to the US Government, with the understanding that the Air Fore would then gift the plane to Donald Trump's presidential library at the end of term. Of course, he doesn't have a presidential library and has taken no steps towards creating one. (One of the few things I actually approved of after he left office in 2021.) Apparently the plane would then be available for his personal use. Lawyers working for Trump and the administration (more or less the same thing at this point) believe this little shell game will get them past the Emolument Clause in the constitution. 

The level of sheer corruption in this president, his family, and the broader administration defies the descriptive capabilities of the English language. 

Read the story here.

Trump Considering Suspension of Habeus Corpus

White House deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller said Friday that the Trump administration is “actively looking at” suspending the writ of habeas corpus — the constitutional right to challenge in court the legality of a person’s detention by the government — for migrants.

Miller’s comment came in response to a White House reporter who asked about President Donald Trump entertaining the idea of suspending the writ to deal with the problem of illegal immigration into the United States.

Asked when that might happen, Miller responded: “The Constitution is clear, and that, of course, is the supreme law of the land, that the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus can be suspended in time of invasion.”

“So, I would say that’s an option we’re actively looking at,” he said.

Read the rest here. 

The Attack on Freedom of Speech

I just had a disturbing conversation with a green card holder—a legal permanent resident of the United States. He had asked if he thought traveling internationally was wise for him as someone who has criticized President Trump and Israel and whether he should avoid any further criticism and/​or remove any past criticism from his social media before he travels.

In a free society, the answer would be: “You should say whatever you want, criticize whoever you want, and not worry about traveling because the government cannot punish you for what you say.” But until the Supreme Court reaffirms that the First Amendment protects noncitizens in the United States from banishment for their speech—and until President Trump obeys the Supreme Court—we do not live in a free country.

The Trump administration is revoking green cards and visas solely based on speech. Individuals are explicitly being targeted based on “beliefs, statements, or associations” that are “lawful within the United States” but which Secretary of State Marco Rubio has deemed “adverse to the foreign policy of the United States.” Even authoring an op-ed criticizing a foreign government’s foreign policy can now trigger visa revocation. The administration is also searching electronic devices at ports of entry for evidence of “adverse” views.

Read the rest here.

See also this on Trump's orders targeting law firms that have crossed him in the past.

Leo XIV

I'm not easily stunned, but this time I am. He wasn't even on my radar. And he is an American. I know almost nothing about him. Two slightly encouraging signs.... he came out dressed like a newly elected pope (unlike his predecessor). And his papal name is a good one. Leo XIII was a great champion of the poor and working class,  but also doctrinally (small 'o') orthodox.

Making Kookery Great Again

People who question whether the Earth is round — a fact understood by the ancient Greeks and taught to American children in elementary school — might have been political pariahs a decade ago. Now, they’re running local Republican parties in Georgia and Minnesota and seeking public office in Alabama.

A prominent far-right activist who has said, despite years of research and intelligence establishing otherwise, that the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, were an inside job by the U.S. government commemorated the 9/11 anniversary last year alongside President Trump.

And Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, pledged the agency’s support last month for a fight involving so-called chemtrails, a debunked theory that the white condensation lines streaming behind airplanes are toxic, or could even be used for nefarious purposes.

Conspiracy theories that were relegated to random and often anonymous online forums are now being championed or publicly debated by increasingly powerful people. Mr. Trump in particular has embraced, elevated and even appointed to his cabinet people promoting these theories — giving the ideas a persuasive authority and a dangerous proximity to policy.

“The real problem with the ideas and the communication of conspiracy theories is when they get evinced by people with the power to act on them,” said Joseph E. Uscinski, a professor at the University of Miami who studies conspiracy theories. “If some guy, somewhere, thinks the Earth is flat, the answer is ‘So what?’ But when people in power have those beliefs, it becomes a serious issue.”

He added: “You can wind up harming many, many people over a fantasy.”

Anna Kelly, a spokeswoman for the White House, said in a statement that the mainstream media “has tried and failed to paint President Trump as extreme for his entire political career” and that his agenda was “common sense.”

Read the rest here. 

Francis II?

If you are Catholic, or just a curious observer of the transition from the Bergolgian pontificate, here are a few random thoughts. 

Roughly four of every five Cardinal Electors (those under 80) were appointed by Francis. Almost all of them share Francis' progressive inclinations, although the degree may vary. I cannot name any pope who went to such lengths to flood the College of Cardinals with like minded ideologues. For those hoping for a return to something resembling small 'o' orthodox Catholicism, or just a degree of post Vatican II normalcy, the odds are not in your favor. 

By my estimation there are only four Cardinal Electors who can be described as staunch "conservatives." Those being Gerhard Müller (77 Germany), Péter Erdő (72 Hungary), Robert Sarah (79 Guinea), and Raymond Burke (76 USA). Of those, Erdő and Sarah have been mentioned in at least some sources as possible successors. In my opinion Erdő is a long shot. His election would would put someone in the mold of the late Benedict XVI, but at 72 much younger, on the papal throne. That would require a remarkable repudiation of the Franciscan legacy by a significant number of those he appointed. As for Sarah, I think he is on the list simply because the various media and news sources needed another conservative name to try and disguise just how stacked the deck actually is. Sarah will be 80 next month and is considered a traditionalist. So his election would not just be a repudiation of Francis but to at least some degree, of the post Vatican II liturgical reforms. If he emerges on the balcony, I would be stunned. 

Are there any moderate contenders? Depending on how you define that term, I'd say yes. The two most prominent names are Peter Turkson (78 Ghana) and Pietro Parolin (70 Italy). An outside possibility would be Wim Eijk (71 Holland). Of the two, Parolin is perhaps the most widely mentioned name in a conclave where there is little consensus on the likely successor. He is known to share Francis' progressive attitudes on the poor and immigrants, though his theological views are a bit more murky. It is generally believed that he leans left, but may not be the doctrinal wrecking ball that Francis was. Traditionalist Catholics are highly suspicious of him as it has long been rumored that he is hostile to the old rite. Parolin is a career diplomat and is believed to be a power broker in the Vatican Curia. One very strong point in his favor, is his nationality. After almost a half century of foreign popes, Italians are keen to see one of their own as Bishop of Rome and primate of the Italian Church. And there are quite a few cardinals from across the ideological spectrum who will likely want to look first and hard at the Italians to see if there is an acceptable compromise among them. 

Zuppi, and Pizzaballa are the two other Italians frequently mentioned. Zuppi is a radical progressive and rumored to have been the one Francis wanted most to succeed him. Pizzaballa is more of a mystery on doctrinal questions, though he has solid credentials as a diplomat. The fact that he has served as the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem would also make him a rather political choice given recent events in that part of the world. That said, he is only 60 which makes him something of a long shot, unless the cardinals are prepared to roll the dice on a pope likely to outlive most of those electing him. 

Back to the "moderates." Peter Turkson is from Africa and shares Francis' progressive views on the poor and immigration. However, and unlike Parolin, he is believed to be doctrinally conservative. Prior to Francis election he had spoken out rather forcefully on the subject of sexual morality, though he has toned that down over the last twelve years. The alphabet people and their lobby would almost certainly oppose his election. For that reason, I disagree with those labeling him a top tier candidate. However, if there are enough moderates to block a radical progressive from being elected, he could end up as a compromise choice. His odds would likely improve if the conclave does not settle on someone in the first two days. Eijk typically gets mentioned farther down the roster. But like Turkson, his chances might improve if the conclave is deadlocked and the progressives lack the votes to install one of their own. Of the various "moderates" named as papabile, he is likely the most conservative. Some observers have labeled him as a conservative. For that reason alone, I think there would be strong resistance to him among progressives. His age, at only 71 would likely add to those reservations with the likelihood of a long pontificate. 

This brings us to the progressives. I'm not going to go too deep here. The list is long and depressing. Rorate has it pretty well covered for those with a strong stomach. Of the progressives, I think Zuppi and Tagle are the two most mentioned. Zuppi, being Italian, has the lead among his fellow cardinals. Though I think Tagle has more name recognition and is the one that most Catholic lefties outside of Italy are hoping for. 

With all of this noted, I am not sure there has been a conclave in modern times where there was as much uncertainty about the outcome. There are so many possibilities, from so many different corners of the globe that I think anyone would be well advised to take a deep breath before making any predictions here. A lot of conservatives have been trying to calm themselves with the old Italian adage that "a fat pope is followed by a skinny one." The problem is that there are very few skinny Cardinals. The one consideration that might temper the radicals, is the fear that another doctrinal bomb thrower could provoke an outright schism. Most unusually, Cardinal Müller has dared to warn of this openly. Even spoken quietly and in private, such a threat would be shocking enough. The fact that he made it in front of the press cannot be seen as anything other than a flashing danger sign to all of the electors.