Could Obama shift the Supreme Court to the right?

...Nonetheless, it’s entirely possible that a more conservative court could turn out to be Obama’s paradoxical legacy -- particularly if he only serves a single term. The likelihood of the court shifting to the right is greater than that of its moving leftward.

In part, this could have been predicted even before he took office. It reflects less about Obama than it does the identity of the departing justices, one liberal followed by another. The next oldest justice is Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 77. Conservatives are reaping the benefit of the Bushes, father and son, having selected justices who were relatively young. Justice Clarence Thomas was 43 when tapped, Chief Justice John Roberts was 50 and Justice Samuel Alito was 55.

Only in the case of a departure by 74-year-old Justice Antonin Scalia -- not likely to occur voluntarily during a Democratic presidency -- or Justice Anthony Kennedy, 73, would Obama have an opportunity to dramatically alter the court’s ideological makeup...

...By contrast, it’s likely, although not certain, that a Stevens replacement will be more conservative than the justice himself. If so, this would be largely in line with history. In an interview with Jeffrey Rosen for the New York Times Magazine in 2007, Stevens noted, “Including myself, every judge who’s been appointed to the court since Lewis Powell [chosen by Richard Nixon in 1971] has been more conservative than his or her predecessor.” Stevens excepted Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who replaced the more conservative Byron White.

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