Why a Leave Vote May Not Result in a Brexit

The officialdom in England and in much of the rest of the advanced world is suddenly in alarm over the possibility of a Brexit. US Treasury yields sank last Friday as investors ran for cover, and the flight to safety continued today as a surge in the yen led to a 3% fall in the Nikkei.

The UK's elites had been confident that frequent, loud "Don't Touch That Dial" warnings, with vivid descriptions of all of the horrors that would ensue, would herd voters into line well before the June 23 polling date.

Instead, an online poll commissioned by the Independent showed the Leave campaign to be winning by a stunning 55% to 45%. That revelation coming on top of weak economic data from the US, put Mr. Market in a funk. The Financial Times' "poll of polls" puts Leave in the lead by a smaller margin, 46% to 44%.

Moreover, the sense is that with only 10 days to the decision date, the Leave campaign is gaining momentum. The Conservatives have realized that having a bunch of toffs, big banks, and intrusive foreign leaders tell British citizens how economically damaging a Brexit would be seems only to have persuaded voters at most that the people at the top of the food chain would take a hit. Voters seem to be in a bloody-minded enough mood to be willing to take a hit if they can inflict some pain on their putative leaders and take the banking classes down a notch or two. Another sentiment (and one that the elites appear to deny) is that voters are willing to pay an economic cost, even a large one, for more national sovereignity. So now Labor leaders have been moved to the front line of the sales campaign.

But even the referendum next week results in "Leave" getting the most results, that does not mean a Brexit will necessarily happen. There are at least two ways that the will of the public could be thwarted.

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