George Will: ‘Texodus’ bodes badly for Republicans

...Hurd is one of six Texas Republican congressman who have decided not to seek reelection next year. Until this year, none of them had, since 2011, experienced the purgatory of being in the House minority. In the 2018 “Texodus,” five Texas Republican representatives retired (a sixth resigned) and two were defeated. Of the 241 Republicans in the House when President Trump was inaugurated, almost 40 percent are gone or going. See a trend?

...In the 2016 House of Representatives elections, no Republican incumbent from Texas lost, and only one was elected with less than 55 percent of the vote. In 2018, two lost and 10 received less than 55 percent. In 2016, four incumbent Republicans in Texas’s House were defeated, and only four won with majorities under 55 percent. In 2018, there were eight losses, and 16 won with less than 55 percent. John Cornyn, who recently stepped down as the second-highest-ranking Republican leader (majority whip) in the U.S. Senate, has won three terms with majorities of 55.3 percent, 54.8 percent and 61.6 percent but seems headed for a more competitive race next year. No wonder Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois, chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, says Texas is “ground zero” for Democrats’ attempts to strengthen their hold on the House.

...In 2008, with the Great Recession underway, John McCain carried Texas by 12 points. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried it by 16. In 2016, Trump (whom Hurd did not endorse) won by nine points. In Texas’s most important 2018 contest for a federal office, incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won by just three. See a trend?

If the Democratic Party can collect Texas’s electoral votes — 38 today, perhaps 41 after the 2020 Census — as well as California’s 55, it will reap 35.5 percent of a winning 270 from just two states. Then the GOP will have almost no plausible path to 270, and Democrats who are currently hot to abolish the electoral college will suddenly say: Oh, never mind.

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