The Democrats might be in trouble. Their presumptive nominee is already the oldest, by far, sitting president in US history and people of all political stripes are worrying about his health and fitness for office. Beyond which, Democrats are apathetic about him, independents are cool, and conservatives loathe him. That's not a recipe for four more years of Democratic administration. Like someone else we could name, his ego is at odds with political reality. Which is to say that pretty much any Republican whose last name does not start with a 'T' has a reasonable to good shot at beating him.
If there is any good news for Democrats, it is that the most probable Republican nominee's last name does start with a 'T.'
Of the various GOP candidates, the ones with the least likelihood of appealing to the base and getting the nomination, would probably be the strongest in the general election. The Donald is obviously the weakest. No one can energize Democrats like Donald Trump. His nomination would guarantee a massive turnout of their base and his poll numbers among moderates and independents are so poor that it is difficult to see how he carries the swing states, that any Republican must in order to win a general election. All of which said, and I've made this point before, Trump's hold on around a third of the party, including those most likely to turn out in a primary, is cult like. With his opposition deeply divided, he is easily the most likely nominee. The only thing that could derail him IMO would be conviction for one or more serious crimes. And even that is not a given.
Of the various not Trump candidates for the nomination, DeSantis is the strongest. But, while his "Stop Woke" culture war has played well in Florida and with the religious right, it might come back to bite him in swing states in a general election. His support for a near absolute ban on abortion will not help him. Nor will his obsessive feud with Disney, which is making him look petty and vindictive. Not to mention causing alarm among libertarians about his willingness to use the power of the state to punish those with differing political views.
Of the others, none stand out in a way that makes me believe they have a serious shot at the nomination with so many running and dividing the anyone but Trump vote in the GOP. Though, FWIW I think the strongest of the "also running" crowd is Tim Scott. If he somehow got the nomination, Scott would wipe the floor with Biden and win a general election by around five points. Given the level of geographic balkanization in the country, I doubt that would translate into a Reaganesque electoral landslide. But I do think he would sweep all of the swing states and maybe even pick up some left leaning though not dark blue ones, like Virginia and Illinois.
But for now, it's looking like a rematch of the 2020 election with each party set to nominate old, weak and generally unpopular men. It will probably come down to who is the most intensely disliked, and my guess is that Trump will once again win that honor.
(Note: This is a tinfoil free zone. I will not approve comments that promote any kind of kookery, including, but not limited to QAnon, Biden stole the 2020 election & etc.)
I agree with all of your observations about Biden (old, tepid enthusiasm, etc). I do not believe, however, that your analysis on the Republican side is thorough enough.
ReplyDeleteThe GOP has two possible nominees: Trump; and not-Trump. If—as seems most likely—they nominate Trump, then I agree with all of your observations above about that scenario.
Any not-Trump scenario (not just DeSantis, but even Scott & al.) imagines a world in which some other Republican had defeated Trump for the nomination. One thing that we know about Trump, however, is that he is not what you might call gracious in defeat. In the unlikely event that someone actually defeats him for the GOP nomination, you can expect a lot of talk of “rigged process” and a third-party MAGA candidacy in the general election. How did it work out for Taft when Roosevelt ran as a Bull Moose? In other words, I would not be so quick to imagine that Tim Scott (or some other non-Trump) could dominate the swing states.
Barring death before Nov. 2024, Trump is going to be in the general election—whether as the GOP nominee or as a spoiler. All of his power as a turn-out engine for the Democrats will be there regardless of how the GOP nomination turns out.
It might be instructive to consider the 1912 election. Wilson did not win only the swing states like IL and NY. Wilson even carried Republican strongholds like MA and KS. That is the sort of thing that happens when one party splits and the other holds together.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, a Tim Scott nomination might not result in the GOP carrying all the swing states. It might even result in Biden carrying (e.g.) TN or UT (etc).
I think those are very good observations. It is difficult to imagine Trump accepting defeat for the GOP nomination and I completely agree that he would deny its legitimacy and mount a 3rd party candidacy.
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