Iowa

Donald Trump won by a comfortable margin. The big surprise according to the press/media was that DeSantis narrowly took second place. I was not shocked as I figured it would be close, but I had thought Haley would be take the number two spot by a slim margin. Beyond all of that I think the press, and Trumpists, are misreading the result's significance.

They are all saying that it is proof of Trump's strength. Some were calling it a landslide. I disagree. Trump took 51% of the vote in a state where he has enormous support among the substantial Protestant Evangelical portion of the population. If that had been anyone other than a former president, and twice nominee of his party, I'd agree that the results were decisive and indicative of a near certain nomination. But we are talking about a former president and two time nominee of the GOP. And he ONLY got a tick over half the vote against two fairly weak opponents. 

This was not a ringing endorsement by Iowa voters and if I were a Trumpist with one foot in the real world, admittedly that's a stretch, I'd be nervous over these numbers. If this had been any other Republican ex-president with the possible exception of Nixon, I'd have expected at least 75% of the vote. A not insignificant number of those voting for DeSantis or Haley have made it very clear that they are not enamored with Trump and want someone else. Some have indicated that they will not vote for him in November. Suggesting that they would either stay home, skip that line on the ballot or vote third party.

Trump lost the last election (YES, he did lose) by around 4.5% of the popular vote. He can't afford to actually lose any of the votes he did get in 2020. 

Is Trump still the overwhelmingly likely nominee of the GOP? Yes. But the nomination is only the first step in the election. Those numbers should be a source of serious concern for team Trump as they eye the November general election.