A good examination of how each side could win in 19 maps.
(Spoiler: The math and the maps favor Trump, but not by a huge margin.)
A few quick observations.
* The undecided vote is still(!) believed to be around 4-6%. How they break could be decisive.
* Disaffected voters could swing the election either way. But the risk is greater for Harris given the extreme rancor in the political left over Israel and Gaza. There are also a lot of Muslim Americans in Michigan. Right now, I'd say that Jill Stein is a dagger pointed at the heart of the Harris campaign.
* The most likely path for a Harris victory (MI, WI and PA), especially if she wins them by very slim margins, could see her elected while losing the popular vote nationally. That would be flipping the usual script as Republicans generally believe the Electoral College gives them an edge in elections. It's how Trump won in 2016. But if this happens for Harris, expect MAGA world to erupt.
I'm from Michigan and several Arab/Muslim leaders on the east side have endorsed Trump. Michigan is going to be absolutely insane Tuesday. I'm not looking forward to the chaos. I don't think there will be lackluster voting numbers Tuesday, but demographic shifts that we've not seen before going both ways.
ReplyDeleteAnd then there is this little surprise... https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4967899-harris-takes-lead-over-trump-in-iowa-poll/
ReplyDeleteAnother poll out of Iowa looks more believable... https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/
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