The Tennessee Special Election

Today's special election to fill a recently vacated congressional seat in Tennessee has been getting a lot of attention. Normally it would be a non-story given that the district is as Republican as San Francisco is Democratic. President Trump carried it by 22 points. But polls have been showing a shockingly close race. This has gotten Democrats excited and Republicans nervous. All of which said, I doubt the Democrats will pull it off. The polls still show the Republican candidate with a modest lead and those same polls have a history of undercounting conservative voters. There's a lot of debate about the hows and whys of that, but it remains true nonetheless. The latest poll showed around 5% of voters as undecided. In that district they almost always break Republican. And there was a margin of error of ~4%. Democrats are hoping that will break their way, but again, history does not suggest that is too likely. Add to that, the Democratic candidate is not a centrist. She is way to the left by Tennessee political standards and has in the past staked out all kinds of really lefty positions like supporting trans/alphabet people etc., pro-abortion, pro-wealth redistribution and so on. That may play well on the left coast and in New York City, but in Tennessee... I'm not seeing it.

In both parties there is a certain class of professional operators who live and breath politics. When they are eating lunch, they are scanning their phone for the latest stories that could impact broad public opinion. They go to bed at night reciting poll numbers and when they dream it's about which districts will need how much money for the coming off year elections. These people are watching this race not to see who wins, but to see how close it is. The serious people in both parties know that flipping the seat is highly improbable. But what has Democrats giddy and Republicans sweating is how close will it be. If the GOP holds the seat, but the margin is single digits, you are going to see alarm among Republicans and elation among Democrats. It will signal an existential threat to swing district Republicans and that money will have to be spent defending at least some districts that would normally be considered safe seats. It would likely add to the steady flow of Republican congress people who have announced their plans not to seek re-election. The party leadership would also have to contend with members feeling more free to criticize the administration. Make no mistake, Donald Trump is on the ballot in this election and the forthcoming off year elections. 

The above aside, what if lightning strikes and the Democrats actually manage to flip the seat? In political terms that would be the equivalent of a tactical nuclear weapon going off in the middle of MAGA country. A district Trump won 13 months ago by 22% in a functionally one party state going Democratic, by even a paper thin margin, might well portend a 2026 election wipe out rivaling those of 1974 and 1994. Democrats will be popping champaign corks from Seattle to South Carolina. For Republicans it would be Katie bar the door.