Wednesday, July 08, 2026

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2026

Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against a multitude of diverse targets, including Russian air defenses, petroleum product transport, other logistics, and electrical substations, is collapsing logistics in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported on July 7 that Ukrainian forces struck eight Russian shadow fleet tankers, including the Venera-3, Sanar-1, Sanar-17, Klimena, Teti, Alexei Savrasov, Ivan Cheremisinov, and Penelopa tankers; one dry cargo ship; and one ferry in the Sea of Azov transporting gasoline to occupied Crimea on the night of July 6 to 7.[1] Brovdi implied that the strikes against the shadow fleet vessels will inhibit Russian efforts to transport gasoline to occupied Crimea, and a local Crimea-based Telegram also reported that the tankers were ferrying gasoline to Crimea.[2] NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) data shows two heat anomalies in the Sea of Azov north of the Kerch Strait on July 7.[3] Brovdi reported on July 7 that Ukrainian forces also struck 44 electrical facilities in occupied Crimea and occupied southern Ukraine between July 1 and 7.[4] Adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Minister, Serhii Sternenko, reported on July 7 that there are fires near the Saky 110 kV and Zakhidno-Krymska 330 kV substations, near the Saky railway station, and near a known S-400 air defense system position in occupied Crimea.[5] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on July 7 that Ukrainian forces also struck two railway bridges near occupied Rozdolne (either 110 or 214 kilometers from the frontline) and Ichki (roughly 257 kilometers from the frontline) that Russian forces used for logistics.[6]

Ukrainian Presidential Office in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea provided a summary on July 6 of Ukrainian strikes against occupied Crimea in June 2026, including on over 15 Russian air defense systems and radar stations; oil terminals in occupied Feodosia; oil tanks at the Kamysh-Burun Combined Heating and Power Plan in occupied Kerch; substations and the Tavriisk Thermal Power Plant in occupied Sevastopol; the Hlibiv underground gas storage facility in occupied Tarkhankhut; the Simferopol gas distribution station; transport and bridge infrastructure, particularly along the A-291 Kerch – Simferopol – Sevastopol – Tavrida and M-14 Rostov-Crimea highways; the Crimean Titan plant in occupied Armyansk; and Russian naval targets.[7] Advisor to the Crimean occupation head Oleg Kryuchkov stated on July 7 that Ukrainian strikes caused power outages in 18 raions in northern, central, western, and eastern occupied Crimea.[8] Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo stated on July 6 that the entirety of occupied Kherson Oblast is suffering from partial or complete power outages and declared a state of emergency on July 7.[9] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky similarly stated on July 6 that Ukrainian strikes caused some power outages in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.[10] Crimea-based Russian telecommunications operators introduced emergency roaming in occupied Crimea as of July 7 so subscribers can connect to other operators’ networks in the event of a complete power outage.[11] Ukrainian forces have been recently intensifying their intermediate-range strike campaign against energy infrastructure, Russian military assets, and logistics in and to occupied Crimea in recent weeks, causing Russian officials to suspend railway service and limit road traffic. These strikes are degrading Russia’s air defense umbrella, impeding its ability to defend against strikes that are increasingly interdicting logistics, depriving Russia of the ability to transport fuel to occupied Crimea, exacerbating fuel shortages, and making it difficult to live and operate in the peninsula.[12]

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