The latest war news

• US military sources are reporting that the Russian Army has suffered severe degradation in Ukraine. Intelligence believe that conservatively 10% of the initial invasion force has been killed, wounded or taken prisoner. Losses in equipment, including tanks and armored personal carriers are even higher as a percentage. 
• Fears that Russia may be considering use of poison gas remain high. However, there is no evidence that such an attack is imminent.
• The US Government claims that more than 2,000 Ukranian children in the Russian occupied areas of eastern Ukraine have been abducted and forcibly transported to various parts of Russia.
• A source within the Russian Security Service (FSB) has released documents which, if legitimate, indicate that the Russians are planning a campaign of ethnic cleansing within areas occupied by the Russian military. This would include mass forced deportations of civilians to Russia and the summary execution of anyone connected to pro-Ukranian groups or demonstrations.
• The Ukrainian Army has launched a counter offensive which has driven back the Russian Army in a number of locations. The Ukrainians claim to have liberated the city of Mykolaiv near the capitol city of Kyiv. Meanwhile US sources report that the Russians have pressed into the city of Mariupol which has been devastated in a weeks long siege. Much of the city has been destroyed and there are reports of hundreds or more corpses littering the wreckage unburied. Many of them civilians. 
• The supply and logistics situation within the Russian Army operating in Ukraine continues to deteriorate. In some units, food and ammunition are at critically short levels.
• Russian opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny has been convicted of additional charges of fraud and contempt of court and sentenced to a further nine years in prison. The proceedings have been more or less universally described as a kangaroo court. 
• At least one in five Ukrainians have been displaced by the war. More than three million have fled the country. 

Ukrainians are being kidnapped

Multiple sources are reporting that the Russian Army is forcibly deporting thousands of Ukrainian civilians to Russia. 

A Memorandum on the Next Conclave Is Circulating Among the Cardinals

Here it is.

HT: Dr. Tighe

Lloyds and DNV withdraw Certification from all Russian Ships

These are two of the world's largest entities that certify ocean going vessels, including super yachts, for insurance purposes. What this means, is that any Russian ships certified by either of these entities may now be operating without insurance. This is a bit complicated as there are other certifiers, but these are the two used by the vast majority of ships and luxury yachts. In order to enter ports and refuel, most ships are required to show evidence of insurance. I'm not certain if this applies to all vessels owned by Russian entities or just Russian flagged ships. But this has the potential to be highly disruptive.

Update: At least one source is suggesting this is primarily being done to vessels owned by sanctioned persons, which would mostly limit it to luxury super yachts owned by Putin's cronies. More than a few of which have suddenly left their ports and turned off their satellite tracking beacons, which is against maritime law.

The Economic Consequences of Putin's War

The big western brands showed Vladimir Putin how to do it. While the Kremlin’s army was getting bogged down in Ukraine, Coca-Cola and Starbucks lost no time in closing their doors to Russian customers.

But the most emblematic move of all came from McDonald’s, which has shut all 850 of its outlets in Russia. The availability of Big Macs in the Soviet Union was seen in 1990 as evidence that the west’s old cold war foe was turning its back on communism, but the past fortnight has rekindled memories of the bad old days. There were queues outside McDonald’s when it first opened in Moscow. Last week, Russians queued for one last burger before the pull-out began.

One of Putin’s predecessors in the Kremlin – Lenin – once said there were decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades happen, and that’s true of the period since Russian troops moved across the border into Ukraine on 24 February.

It is not just that Russia faces a brutal recession. It is the shattering of the idea of a seamless post-cold-war global economy. It is the return to days of higher defence spending in the west. It is the possibility that governments may backpedal on their net zero carbon pledges.

“Putin has created his own worst nightmare,” says Mohamed El-Erian, chief economist at Allianz and president of Queens’ College, Cambridge. “He has united the west in a way it hasn’t been for a long time; he has been the catalyst for arms to Ukraine on a large scale; he has changed Germany’s approach to military spending; and he has brought the Russian economy to its knees. It is incredible.”

Freezing the bulk of Russia’s reserves has meant the central bank has struggled to shore up the rouble, which has plummeted by a third on the currency markets. Capital controls have been introduced, interest rates have more than doubled, and annual inflation is heading for 20%. The stock market has been closed and financial markets fear Moscow may default on a sovereign debt repayment later this week.

Read the rest here.

On the eve of the Great Fast

I beg forgiveness for any injury I may have caused, especially through this blog. No blogging until after Clean Wednesday.

Oil Surges

In overnight trading as of this posting...

Oil futures are at $126/barrel of West Texas Crude. That's the highest level since 2008.

The yield on the 10yr US Bond has fallen to 1.7%.

Gold has risen to 1,992/oz. Silver is at 26.15/oz

Bitcoin, after briefly rising to $43,000 as Russians were buying anything where they thought they could stash cash not subject to sanction or crippling inflation has retreated to a little over $38,000. 

US stock futures are currently down about 1.2%.

Finally something amusing from Ukraine

From Rod Dreher. (Adult language)

I don't think the civilized world has cheered this loudly for a country under attack by a powerful predatory neighbor since Belgium in 1914. 

Russia Prepares Law Against "Fake" News on War in Ukraine

The law, expected to be voted on tomorrow, makes it a criminal offense punishable by 15 years in prison to spread false news or reports on the war in Ukraine. The last two independent media outlets in Russia have both announced they are suspending operations. 

METROPOLITAN ONUPHRY APPEALS FOR PENITENTIAL PRAYER AND AN END TO THE “FRATRICIDAL WAR”

Dear brothers and sisters! The faithful of our Ukrainian Orthodox Church!

As the primate of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, I appeal to you and to all citizens of Ukraine. A disaster has occurred. Unfortunately, Russia has launched military actions against Ukraine, and at this fateful time I urge you not to panic, to be courageous, and to show love for your homeland and for each other. I call you, above all, to intensified penitential prayer for Ukraine, for our army, and our people, and I entreat you to lay aside mutual strife and misunderstandings and unite in love for God and our motherland.

At this tragic time, we express our fervent love and support to our soldiers standing guard and protecting and defending our land and our people. May God bless and keep them!

Defending the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine, we appeal to the President of Russia and ask him to immediately stop the fratricidal war. The Ukrainian and Russian peoples came out of the Dnieper Baptismal font, and the war between these peoples is a repetition of the sin of Cain, who killed his own brother out of envy. Such a war has no justification either from God or from people.

I call everyone to common sense, which teaches us to solve our earthly problems in mutual dialogue and mutual understanding, and I sincerely hope that God will forgive us our sins and that God’s peace will reign on our land and throughout the world!

Source

The Russian Economy Has Been Nuked

Over the weekend Vladimir Putin rattled Russia's nuclear sabre. Meanwhile, the west pushed the button. The sanctions are the most rigorous I can remember against any country in my lifetime. Iran, South Africa during apartheid, even North Korea; they all look relatively ok compared to what is going on in Russia. Putin is now radioactive and that is extending to the entire country. This is likely to last a long time. Most of the industrialized world has moved to cut Russia off. The Ruble is one step from being used for toilet paper. The stock market has been closed by the Russian Central Bank to prevent a meltdown. There are reports of near panic buying of necessary comodities in order to unload their money while it still has any value at all. The massive amounts of foreign currency reserves stockpiled for years as a hedge against possible western sanctions are now mostly frozen. Putin does have some gold, which he has also been buying for the last decade or longer. But it's not clear where that is. And even Switzerland has joined the economic blockade. But even if the gold is in Russia, it won't be enough to keep the lights on for long. I feel badly for the Russian people. They can be added to the long list of Putin's victims.

AXIOS

In a rare break with Moscow, the leaders of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) have denounced the Russian invasion and urged their countrymen to support the Kiev government.

“Defending the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine, we also appeal to the President of Russia to stop the fratricidal war immediately,” said Metropolitan Onufry, head of the UOC-MP. Father Mykola Danilevich, a spokesman for the UOC-MP, was more outspoken, saying: ““Putin treacherously attacked our country! We bless everyone for the defense of Ukraine!”

From here. 

Thousands of young Russian men flee to US

Thousands of Russians are trying to reach the United States to claim political asylum and avoid being drafted to the army, the Telegraph can reveal.

Immigration lawyers in America have been inundated with inquiries from Russian men and their families asking if the US will grant them political protection amid fears of conscription, following Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

In recent months, record numbers of Russian citizens have been apprehended on the US border with Mexico, as an easy path to the US offers opponents of Vladimir Putin’s government an escape.

The Telegraph has spoken to bank managers, engineers and fashion designers who have all left their homes in search of a new life in the US after being targeted by police in Russia.

But now, immigration lawyers say the numbers will “skyrocket” amid fears that military-age men will be called up to fight in the war with Ukraine - which has already called up conscripts and reservists aged between 18 and 60.

In 2020, just 467 Russians were detained at America's southern border. Last year, that number soared to 9,376 - a result of the Russian crackdown on dissent following widespread protests spearheaded by opposition leader Alexei Navalny, experts say.

But the numbers are still increasing. Last month, 1,028 Russians and 248 Ukrainians made their way across the border, mostly crossing from Tijuana to San Diego.

“We have never been so busy,” said Ekaterina Mouratova, a Russian-American immigration lawyer based in Miami. “But the number is going to skyrocket. I have got tons of emails in the last few days - hundreds. They are mostly men between 20 and 55 who are asking if they can get protection from the US if Russia does a mandatory military draft. These people do not want to go to war.

Read the rest here. (paywalled)

What's the difference between the UN and the League of Nation?

The League never actually gave Hitler or Stalin a veto. Otherwise, I see no real difference.

Russian Bonds Downgraded

Standard & Poor's has downgraded Russian sovereign bonds to 'junk' status. That's going to hurt.

Russia Invades Ukraine

Russia launched a large-scale military operation tonight with the stated object of "demilitarizing and de-nazifying Ukraine." The irony being that Putin has been employing Hitler's playbook from 1938-39, almost verbatim. 

Russia Moves Against Ukraine

• Russian President V.V. Putin has announced formal recognition of two separatist regimes in Eastern Ukraine. Both have been widely described as puppet regimes of the Kremlin.
• Mr. Putin has ordered Russian troops to enter those self-proclaimed states for the purpose of "peace keeping."
• Russia's formal declaration recognizes all of the claimed territory of the two secessionist groups, including large swaths of territory held by the Ukrainian government.
• In a speech to the Russian nation Mr. Putin questioned the legitimacy of Ukraine's existence as an independent state.
• Mr. Putin has requested and received permission from the Russian Duma to deploy troops outside of Russia. The request was made in response to Russian claims of mass genocide being perpetrated by the government in Kyiv against ethnic Russians. Those claims have been emphatically denied by Ukraine and received with ridicule by the international community.
• Mr. Putin has issued a series of demands to Ukraine that include formal Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea which Russia seized in 2014, that Ukraine adopt a policy of what Moscow termed "strict neutrality" including a permanent pledge never to join NATO, and a formal demand that Ukraine effectively disarm itself and surrender all heavy weapons including any arms supplied by the United States or other powers. Presumably they would have to be surrendered to Russia. 

Ukraine

War may be imminent, or it may not. But if it comes one thing is certain; thousands will be killed and wounded. And most will be Orthodox Chrisitians. 

Lord have mercy.

Britain: National Power Grid to tap electric cars when in need of extra juice

Electric car owners will be called on to help Britain avoid an energy crunch as suppliers prepare tariffs allowing them to draw power from parked vehicles at times of low supply or high demand.

Cars which are charging on driveways are to be plugged into a system responsible for balancing the National Grid for the first time, in an experiment aimed at easing the burden on the country's creaking energy infrastructure.

It will lay the groundwork for a national rollout of the technology if successful, paving the way for millions of electric cars to act as a giant battery so that power supply is stable at times of low wind speeds after the transition to green energy.

In the trial, which will begin at some point from April to June, car owners will agree to allow the grid to draw power from their vehicles and release it as and when required. They will be paid for energy which the grid drains off.

Read the rest here.

According to the comments, the planned rebate will be 15/p per kwh. The problem is that the car owners are charged 19/p per kwh by the power grid.