Politics in the air...

It's January in a year that will see the summer Olympics. This means it's also an election year. With this in mind I thought I would contribute my own two cents and see if I can land a job as a talking head on CNN.

The Democrats:
Barack's victory in Iowa was a small earthquake for a number of reasons. First he is NOT the choice of the party big shots. Hillary is. Secondly he does not have the money. Hillary does. And thirdly he is black. Hillary is not. The fact that he not only won but that Hillary came in third(!) adds even more weight to this remarkable upset. It was humiliating for her and it has shattered her creditability as the nominee presumptive. John Edwards is not going to get the nomination barring a major screw up on the part of Barack. Even then I think people would gravitate towards Clinton before Edwards. His support seems to mostly come from some of the institutional base of the party like big labor. Looking forward...

If Obama wins in New Hampshire tomorrow and Hillary does not come in at least a close second she is going to be in serious trouble. It may prove to be a fatal blow to her campaign. No, she won't be dropping out of the race. But South Carolina then becomes do or die for her. And there is something worth noting about South Carolina as opposed to Iowa and New Hampshire. South Carolina does have a significant African American population. Finally look for most of the also rans to drop out of the race after New Hampshire with the likely exception of Dennis Kucinich (the anti war lefty).

The Republicans:
If New Hampshire is likely to be the beginning of the end for the Democratic nominating process it will just as likely blow open the Republican race. Mike Huckabee won in Iowa but I don't see a repeat performance coming in New Hampshire. Two of the GOP's heavy weight candidates mostly skipped Iowa. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani were largely absent. McCain has been stumping hard in NH and I expect him to win there where Huckabee does not seem to be showing nearly as well. In short Huckabee's win in Iowa may well have been a fluke or an anti-Romney vote by a lot of Protestant Evangelicals who are very uncomfortable with Romney's religion (Mormonism). Looking forward...

A McCain win in New Hampshire would be even worse for Romney than Obama winning will be for Hillary. This is Romney's back yard and people there don't typically vote on religious lines. In South Carolina they (at least the Republicans) do. In this respect New Hampshire may prove decisive. It could knock out the one time front runner. But it will otherwise leave the race wide open. McCain and Huckabee will both have one victory and Giuliani is expected to make a major showing down the stretch in the super Tuesday primaries which will involve many of the larger states with more moderate Republican voters. Fred Thompson's place in the race will become tenuous if he does not place at least a respectable third in tomorrow's voting. As with the Democrats, look for the remaining also rans to start dropping out after New Hampshire with the possible exception of libertarian/isolationist Ron Paul who has a small but remarkably dedicated following. Paul has zero chance of winning the GOP nomination. But his stable support and the remarkable amount of money he has been able to raise could allow him to force the major candidates or even the eventual nominee presumptive (once we get one) to address his issues.