Iowa Final Polls

Its caucus day in Iowa and the last polls show a race too close to predict the outcome.  Gov. Romney and Dr. Paul are in a statistical tie for first place with former US Senator Rick Santorum (a staunchly social conservative Roman Catholic) rising rapidly in the polls and likely to make a strong 3rd place showing.  So who will win?

Obviously I am pulling for Ron Paul, but I don't have a strong gut feeling on this one way or the other.  There are a lot of factors that could influence the outcome.  If turn out is low that will favor Dr. Paul, as he has by far the most dedicated supporters.  On the other hand a larger turn out could favor Gov. Romney.  Also a lot will depend on how weak or undecided voters go at the caucuses.  Many conservatives detest Romeny but are terrified of a Ron Paul victory.  They may hold their noses and vote for Romney if they think Paul is likely to win otherwise.  Then there are the independents and crossover Democrats many of whom are backing Paul.  But no one knows how many of these there are.  And the last factor is how many votes will Rick Santorum peel away from Romney?

Bottom line; I think we have the makings for a good old fashioned nail-biter here.