Watching Iowa Results

850 PST: 97% of the votes in and only 100 or so votes separate Santorum and Romney.  At this point it doesn't really mater too much which one gets to claim 1st place and which 2nd.  It's a tie.  Ron Paul gave a good speech and we saw that young corporal again, who gave a short but very enthusiastic endorsement from the podium.  I hope he doesn't get in too much trouble for that.  The military severely (and rightly) frowns on active duty servicemen/women doing politics in uniform.  All in all a good night for Ron Paul if perhaps not as good as one might have hoped.  Like I said earlier, the likely real winner is President Obama.

757 PST: 88% of the votes now in.  The gap is widening between the top two candidates and third.  Santorum and Romney, in that order, are in a statistical tie for 1st place with 25% of the vote.  Ron Paul is in third with 21% and it is starting to look like a steep hill for him to climb.  Ron Paul's main hope lies in a large Uof I campus county where only a very small percentage of votes have been counted in order for him to recover enough ground to pull this off.  At the moment I would say that the likely winner of the Iowa Caucuses is Barack Obama.  The President has to be enormously satisfied that he is confronting a deeply divided GOP with his most likely opponent facing rejection from 75% of Republican voters.

711 PST: 48% of the votes now in.  Romney and Santorum neck and neck (24%) with Dr. Paul dropping back slightly (22% ).  Still a statistical tie.  I should also note Gingrich is in 4th with 13%, Rick Perry in 5th with about 10% and Michelle Bachmann last with just 6%.  Jon Huntsman chose not to compete in Iowa and has around 1% of the vote.

700 PST: CNN just had an interview with a young soldier (in uniform which is a bit of a no no) at the Ron Paul HQ who explained why he was supporting Dr. Paul.  He was extremely well spoken and made it clear he did not think our national security was being well served by a policy of endless wars. Sadly the interview got cut off when the camera went dead.

654 PST: Over 30% of the votes are in and less than 200(!) votes separate the first place from the third. This could be a long night.  Glad I'm on the west coast.

612 PST: NYT reports 15% of the vote in and still a 3 way horse race.  Paul is in first by less than a point with Romney and Santorum tied for 2nd place.

603 PST: First thoughts; WOW! 3 way statistical tie for 1st.  Santorum doing better then expected.  Romney still in it but so far he's been a point or two behind Paul and Santorum who are neck and neck.