Sunday, February 21, 2016

Ceterum censeo Trump delendum esse

Donald Trump’s victory in South Carolina proves that in 2016, the GOP has split into two. There is the Trump party. And there is the not-Trump party.

In raw terms, the Trump party isn’t especially strong. Voting has concluded in three states. The results there and all kinds of polling on favorability among Republicans suggests he’s got a natural ceiling between 35 and 40 percent. An AP poll conducted this week says 60 percent of GOP voters—60 percent!—have a negative view of Trump.

This is the not-Trump party.

And yet, in that same AP poll, 86 percent of Republican voters say they think Trump can win in November. In light of their dislike, Republicans appear to be making a depressing concession to the dark reality of the present moment—the same dark reality with which everyone who is not in Trump’s thrall is grappling.

With apologies to Shakespeare, Trump is the Colossus of 2016, bestriding the narrow election while other candidates walk under his huge legs and peep about, seeking a little media attention.

The not-Trump party doesn’t want him but to its members and to everyone else he is beginning to seem inescapable.

So what does the not-Trump party do now?

Everybody knows what needs to happen. The GOP field needs to consolidate so that the not-Trump party can speak with one voice, back one candidate, and knock him over.

But that’s not going to happen...

Read the rest here.

Donald Trump is probably going to win the GOP nomination. But with one exception, I see no reasonable possibility of his winning the general election. (If Hillary is indicted all bets are off.). With Trump as its nominee the GOP is likely heading for a once in a generation electoral shellacking. He is going to be the Republican George McGovern.

9 comments:

lannes said...

Everyone wants to be a fortune-teller.

Gaspares said...

Don't want to be a '(Latin) Grammar Nazi' but it should be 'delendum esse'.

John (Ad Orientem) said...

I stand corrected...

August said...

I don't see it. People are angry enough to vote for him in both parties. The most likely thing is he gets in, and then the insiders let the smoke and mirrors stop- stop playing monetary games to keep the stock market up, and generally just stonewall him for four years.

This could happen with Sanders too, though it is less probable that he will win his nomination. Someone in D.C. must know, at least intellectually, that a correction has to happen for any real economic growth to happen, so they have to stop playing money games. An outsider president presents a perfect opportunity to try and divert the blame away from themselves and to the outsider.

Prior Martin said...

The Neo-Cons and RINOS are terrified they will lose control, they can't buy Trump, as he said "I don't want your money I want your vote". Rest assured he'll get mine!

The Anti-Gnostic said...

Trump is a sign of the real split: Globalism vs. Nationalism.

Flambeaux said...

I still think a Trump-Sanders ticket would be well-nigh unstoppable. Not necessarily good. Just electorally dominant.

garasanin said...

I think this article shows there is a reasonable possibility that Trump can beat Clinton:

http://static.currentaffairs.org/2016/02/unless-the-democrats-nominate-sanders-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency

garasanin said...

I think this article shows there is a reasonable possibility that Trump can beat Clinton:

http://static.currentaffairs.org/2016/02/unless-the-democrats-nominate-sanders-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency