Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Iowa

The GOP: It's a three man race now. Everyone else can go home. Trump got schlonged by Cruz but is hardly out. The (un)civil war within the right wing of the party is likely to continue. Meanwhile it looks like the GOP establishment have finally found their candidate.

The Democrats: Hillary is in trouble. She needed a win badly and she ended with a statistical tie. Sanders is very likely going to win comfortably in New Hampshire which means he now has the momentum. Efforts to declare Clinton's nomination inevitable or to convince the left wing of the party that Sanders was a pipe dream have categorically failed. That said, South Carolina comes after NH and the deep South is not likely to be friendly territory for a self described socialist, even among Democrats.

The Bottom line: This is likely going to be a long and bruising campaign season in both parties.

2 comments:

Mark Citadel said...

Elections should be of little concern, beyond how they might serve the interests of the Faithful, and with that in mind, the result in Iowa is just fine. Keep the long game in mind.

Bernard Brandt said...

I will note, as has Jerry Pournelle, that Trump made the mistake of not being present at the most recent debate. That, I believe, hurt him. Whether that mistake will continue to hurt him is open, if not debate, then to a view to the immediate future. As it is, the Republican primaries appear to be resolving to a three man race. I will note in addition, though, this graphic of the HuffPo's synthesis of polls. It still shows Trump far ahead of the rest:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary

That said, the Democratic primaries are, if anything, even more problematic. Hillary has far more in her war chest than does Bernie. The Democratic establishment also appears to be soundly in her corner, as is evident from the six 'coin tosses' that all went in her favor. Statistically, the odds of six consecutive choices are 1.5%. Politically, then, something else is going on. Nonetheless, to paraphrase the poet, "Something is happening, and she don't know what it is." I suppose it all depends upon whether we have the same system of federal criminal justice as we do in the electoral realm (i.e., the best that money can buy). If so, then Hillary will get a pass for her several felonies. If not, Sanders is likely to be the last man standing.

It appears then, as with the Chinese curse, that we are indeed living in 'interesting times'.