Wednesday, February 12, 2020

The Democrats

Sanders does not surprise me. The old lefty has always had the hearts and affections of that corner of the Democratic Party (and the others of the left) whose favorite color is red. Boot-edge-edge however, is a surprise. I really did not see him as a credible top tier candidate for multiple reasons. In any event I think Trump will crush either of them in the general election.

Sanders will alienate the center left and more than a few Democrats would stay home if he is the nominee, or they will hold their nose and vote for Trump. Boot-edge-edge will loose because Afro-Americans are by and large cool to outright hostile towards the alphabet people. And there is no Democratic path to the White House that does not require about 90% of the black vote. Bluntly, the Mayor of South Bend Indiana who is white and openly homosexual, has no chance of pulling off those kinds of numbers. I am still a bit shocked that he has leapt to the top tier of candidates.

Amy Klobuchar's campaign doesn't have the money or the organizational depth to go the distance despite her surprising third place finish last night.

Biden and Warren, both at one time seen as the two most likely nominees, are now on life support. Warren is probably done. Biden still has a slim chance but he has to carry South Carolina. If he loses there, it's pretty much game over.

With one exception the others should stop wasting everybody's time and stand down. Several already have. I was honestly sorry to see Yang never got any real traction. Like all of the Democrats, he is wrong on almost every issue I care about, but he isn't a nut and he had moments when he seemed willing to think out of the box.

That leaves the one wild card still waiting to make his appearance in the great game... Bloomberg. He's richer than Trump, probably by a factor, and is willing to spend whatever it takes to beat him. He has relatively little baggage beyond his wealth, which among Democrats is hugely controversial. He is liberal but not crazy. He is not corrupt or functionally illiterate. He grasps the dangers of the widening wealth gap, but doesn't think blowing up the economic system is the way to fix it. He has a dreadful view of gun rights. He has never shown much interest in the leftwing cause du jour, namely identity politics. He supports abortion rights but that flag is nowhere near the top of his masthead. And he is fairly centrist on crime and immigration (at least by Democratic standards).

If the Democratic center remains splintered and weak after South Carolina, he may become the anti-Sanders candidate. And I think he is the one Democrat who has a really good shot at beating Trump in November. But he won't show up on the ballot before March 3.

Will it be too late?


The Orthodox Tentmaker said...

Once again, the problem in voting for the “democratic” candidate for President, even if it’s Bloomberg is the coalition that candidate will bring to power along with him.

There really is no choice but Trump and Pence. The “Democratic” Party is and remains the evil party. Fortunately and Providentially, the Republican Party has been less stupid lately, hence all the good judges being appointed currently.

Do you really want to put Bloomberg in charge of the judgeships?


John (Ad Orientem) said...

I am not endorsing Bloomberg for president. I am simply noting that he is not hard left on most issues (gun rights being a notable exception) and if he were to end up in the White House, the world is unlikely to end. As for judges, I am not wild about the idea of him appointing any but I don't see him nominating left wing loons. And the Supreme Court is secure (thank God) barring an unexpected death or retirement from our side. I am reasonably confident that Bloomberg would not be down for any court packing schemes. He understands that would destroy the Supreme Court as an institution and effectively end the rule of law.

All of which said, I am not telling anyone to vote for the man. I am not saying I would. The only decision I have made more or less definitively is that Donald Trump is morally, temperamentally and intellectually unqualified for any elective office, and with one possible exception I will not vote for the man. The one possible exception would be if Sanders gets the nomination and for some unfathomable reason the election looks close.

In that circumstance I might have to take a stiff drink or three, steady my shaking hand, and pull the lever for Trump.