A new poll commissioned by the right leaning Daily Telegraph suggests Labour is heading for a landslide win in the July 4th election. The poll puts Labour on course to win more than 500 seats in the next parliament, while the Conservatives may hold as few as 53 seats. If this proves even remotely accurate, it will deliver the largest electoral majority in British history and leave the Conservative Party on political life support. Among the secondary parties, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to be only a few seats short of the Tories while the secessionist Scottish National Party would see its numbers drop by 40 to just eight. More than half of current ministers are believed in danger of losing their seats, including Rishi Sunak who could become the first sitting Prime Minister to lose his seat in a general election. The right-wing Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party) headed by Nigel Farage is not expected to win any seats but is likely to contribute to the Tory collapse.
The poll is a bit of an outlier, with most others showing a big win for Labour but not quite the existential collapse of the Tories that this one is predicting. And the pollsters acknowledge that around 100 seats are close enough that some could remain Conservative. But even in a best-case scenario for the Conservatives, Labour is likely to walk away with a de facto election proof majority leaving them firmly in government for at least the next ten years.
Update: Another poll,
this one from Sky News. It's also pretty grim for the Conservatives, if perhaps just a bit less apocalyptic.
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