Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Breaking: Joe Sestak has defeated Arlen Specter

MSNBC is reporting that veteran PA Senator Arlen Specter (D) who defected from the Republican party last year has been defeated by his primary challenger Joe Sestak. This is likely to greatly improve the odds of the GOP gaining the seat in November. It is also further evidence of a powerful anti-incumbent and anti-establishment sentiment in the country at large.


mike said...

"anti-incumbent", eh? i think your political radar is missing the mark here. it's not a nationwide anti-incubent sentiment, but an anti-liberal/progressive/statist one, regardless of incumbency.

my political tea leaves tell me that conservative-leaning incumbents perform markedly better than incumbents who are known progressives and face conservative challengers. it seems you believe that all incumbents regardless of ideological stripe will get shellacked (i.e., the michelle bachman's of the world will perform equally as poorly as the nancy pelosi's and barney frank's).

is my assumption of your view correct?

gdelassu said...

How do you figure that this outcome improves the chances for a GOP pickup? The polls on a Specter-Toomey match-up have been showing a 6.8 point lead for Toomey, with the trend line for Toomey's lead pointing up. The polls for a Sestak-Toomey matchup show Toomey with only a 3.6 point lead and the trendline for Toomey's lead shrinking.

I would be loathe to make an actual prediction about the eventual winner of this race, but if last night's result made a difference, it actually made it harder, not easier, for the GOP to pick up this seat.

reader joseph said...

agree with gdelassu. this will make it more difficult for Toomey, in a state that is more blue than red.