Tuesday, September 16, 2008

A Warning Unheeded?

From June 19th 2008

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

Read the rest here.

Right after this came out it got a lot of play for a few days in the media as various talking heads dismissed the RBS warning as alarmist. I seem to recall one commenter calling it irresponsible and likening it to yelling "FIRE!" in a crowded theater.

But what if the theater was really on fire?

Interesting that RBS predicted that things would start coming to a head in September...

1 comment:

James the Thickheaded said...

The trick isn't calling the bottom.... lots of folks got that one... some by simply keeping the same forecast for 10 plus years (The Bear's Lair). No the trick here is calling the turn.