Wednesday, May 31, 2023
Monday, May 29, 2023
Saturday, May 27, 2023
Wednesday, May 24, 2023
The Democrats might be in trouble. Their presumptive nominee is already the oldest, by far, sitting president in US history and people of all political stripes are worrying about his health and fitness for office. Beyond which, Democrats are apathetic about him, independents are cool, and conservatives loathe him. That's not a recipe for four more years of Democratic administration. Like someone else we could name, his ego is at odds with political reality. Which is to say that pretty much any Republican whose last name does not start with a 'T' has a reasonable to good shot at beating him.
If there is any good news for Democrats, it is that the most probable Republican nominee's last name does start with a 'T.'
Of the various GOP candidates, the ones with the least likelihood of appealing to the base and getting the nomination, would probably be the strongest in the general election. The Donald is obviously the weakest. No one can energize Democrats like Donald Trump. His nomination would guarantee a massive turnout of their base and his poll numbers among moderates and independents are so poor that it is difficult to see how he carries the swing states, that any Republican must in order to win a general election. All of which said, and I've made this point before, Trump's hold on around a third of the party, including those most likely to turn out in a primary, is cult like. With his opposition deeply divided, he is easily the most likely nominee. The only thing that could derail him IMO would be conviction for one or more serious crimes. And even that is not a given.
Of the various not Trump candidates for the nomination, DeSantis is the strongest. But, while his "Stop Woke" culture war has played well in Florida and with the religious right, it might come back to bite him in swing states in a general election. His support for a near absolute ban on abortion will not help him. Nor will his obsessive feud with Disney, which is making him look petty and vindictive. Not to mention causing alarm among libertarians about his willingness to use the power of the state to punish those with differing political views.
Of the others, none stand out in a way that makes me believe they have a serious shot at the nomination with so many running and dividing the anyone but Trump vote in the GOP. Though, FWIW I think the strongest of the "also running" crowd is Tim Scott. If he somehow got the nomination, Scott would wipe the floor with Biden and win a general election by around five points. Given the level of geographic balkanization in the country, I doubt that would translate into a Reaganesque electoral landslide. But I do think he would sweep all of the swing states and maybe even pick up some left leaning though not dark blue ones, like Virginia and Illinois.
But for now, it's looking like a rematch of the 2020 election with each party set to nominate old, weak and generally unpopular men. It will probably come down to who is the most intensely disliked, and my guess is that Trump will once again win that honor.
Sunday, May 21, 2023
Tuesday, May 16, 2023
Monday, May 15, 2023
Friday, May 12, 2023
Saturday, May 06, 2023
Tuesday, May 02, 2023
Monday, May 01, 2023
Not surprisingly, the Russian government has launched multiple attacks on Wikipedia for its coverage of the invasion of Ukraine. There is now open speculation that at some point Russia will simply move to ban the online encyclopedia entirely.
On a side note, but also of possible interest, there is quite the ongoing contretemps over Wikipedia's presentation of Polish history, especially as it relates to World War II, the Nazi genocide of the Jews and other atrocities from that era. See this.
[Full Disclosure: I have been an active contributor on Wikipedia for many years.]