Metropolitan Hilarion Alfeyev is suspended

Read the full story here.

HT: Blog reader John L.

My thoughts...

This is disturbing. Hilarion has a reputation as a staunch theological conservative. But, and this is extremely important, he is not believed to be a member of Putin's cheerleading squad. It has been hinted that this may have been the reason for his exile to Hungary. Over the last decade+ the ROC has become a de facto department of the government, serving as a religious propaganda agency for the Putin dictatorship. While not directly attacking Putin, that would have been dangerous (and not just politically), Hilarion has been notable for his public reticence on political subjects. Privately... well there have been a lot of rumors about his views on things like the war in Ukraine (not a supporter), political corruption and so on. And it is fair to note that Hilarion lives quite well. But this is not unusual among the princes of the Russian Church. 

For his part, Putin is an old KGB man. And one of their favorite tactics for dealing with clergy who wouldn't tow the party line from the old days in Soviet occupied Eastern Europe, was to accuse the priest of being homosexual. This was most commonly done with Roman Catholic priests because the Communist Party was never able to establish quite the same level of control over that church as they did over the ROC. Some church historians and biographers have suggested this as one of the reasons why John Paul II was so slow to act on the clergy abuse crisis in the Catholic Church. He had seen the secret police in Poland use that tactic to smear inconvenient members of the clergy on multiple occasions. 

To be clear, I don't have information that I would call coming from a credible source. And it's entirely possible that these new allegations could be true. It would be foolish to think that the ROC is immune from clerical sex scandals. But I will make a couple observations. First, the ROC clearly holds a special status of high favor within Russia and enjoys the patronage and protection of the Putin regime, which the church repays with its full throated professions of loyalty. Secondly, nothing of any real consequence at that level of government, or quasi government institutions, happens without the Kremlin's discreet nod. Which is to say that scandals touching on prominent persons or institutions don't become public without the approval of the state. 

Could this be the real thing? Yes. One thing worth noting is that the principle accuser is not living in Russia. But it also has all the hallmarks of an old fashioned KGB character assassination plot. For now, I would adopt a wait and see approach while keeping in mind who really controls things in Russia, and by extension, its branch of the Orthodox Church.

Religious Liberty in the States

Read the report here. 

Biden bows out

I don't think anyone needed a crystal ball to see that this was all but inevitable. On a human level I feel kinda bad for the man. But political parties exist to win elections. And politics broadly speaking is a full contact sport. If you can't take the hits you should stick to golf. 

I can so picture Nancy Pelosi channeling the Godfather when deciding that Biden had to go. "It's not personal Joe; it's strictly business."

The Republican Convention

“What starts out here as a mass movement ends up as a racket, a cult or a corporation.”
— Eric Hoffer, “The Temper of Our Time” (1967)

Well, it's over. That's probably the kindest thing that can be said. Long time readers of this blog will know I am not a fan of what the GOP has become over the last decade-plus, so I will keep this brief. One would be hard pressed to find a similar example of near endless mendacity coupled with sheer idolatry in the context of a political rally, outside of totalitarian states like Russia, China and N. Korea. The only thing missing was a golden calf with Donald Trump's likeness for its head. Trump's acceptance speech was agonizingly long and rambling, even for him. Filled with his usual litany of lies and grievances, excepting his cult followers and sycophants in the right wing press/media, it is likely to be recorded as among the worst acceptance speeches in modern American political history. By contrast, and as much as I detest Trump, I have to concede that his 2016 speech was actually pretty good as political theatre. 

And then there is the mess in the Democratic Party. Sometimes, it is difficult not to conclude that this country is under some especially harsh divine judgement.

Who has shaped JD Vance's World View?

In a political party whose populist base has come to embrace conspiracy theorism coupled with a deep suspicion of intellectuals, who are generally lumped in with the much disdained but vaguely defined "elites," JD Vance stands out as something of a rarity. Unlike Donald Trump, who appears to be borderline illiterate, at least on subjects like history and social/political philosophy, Vance is well read and intellectually curious. Politico has an interesting piece listing some of the people who are known to have helped shape his world view.

Read it here. 

The Debt Delusion: Why Modern Monetary Theory Is a Luxury Belief

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell made the rounds on Capitol Hill this week, discussions about the Federal Reserve’s expectations for inflation have once again come to the forefront. Unsustainable government spending is raising inflationary pressures with potentially devastating consequences for the US economy. In this context, the belief that debt doesn’t matter, especially championed by proponents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), appears more detached from reality than ever.

This notion, prevalent on the political left, claims that a government that issues its own currency can never run out of money in the same way a household or business might. Advocates argue that such a government can always print more money to pay off its debts, thereby sidestepping any constraints imposed by traditional fiscal discipline. While this might sound appealing, it’s a classic example of what sociologists call a “luxury belief”—an idea that is primarily held by those insulated from its real-world consequences.

“We are a sovereign currency, we can print all the money we want”—former House Budget Committee Chair John Yarmuth (D‑KY) at a congressional hearing.

Luxury beliefs, as sociologist Rob Henderson describes, are ideas that confer status on the rich while often burdening the less fortunate. The concept has traditionally been associated with cultural and social norms, but it applies equally well to economic theories like MMT. Proponents of this “magic money” theory, often shielded by their own economic stability, pay too little heed to how elegant theories on paper can lead to catastrophic outcomes in the real world.

A key argument against MMT’s false promise is that printing money for the sake of financing government spending leads to inflation. When a government prints money to cover excessive spending, it increases the money supply without a corresponding increase in goods and services. This creates an imbalance between available resources and the money available to purchase them, with the result being inflation—an increase in the price level that erodes the purchasing power of money. For the wealthy, this might mean adjustments to their investment portfolios or higher prices on certain items. For the poor and working class, however, inflation can be devastating.

Read the rest here.

Peter III of Antioch, the Filioque and Rome

Not going to excerpt this one. But it's well worth the read. 

J D Vance and the triumph of the isolationists

MILWAUKEE — Former President Donald Trump didn’t just select a running mate here – he doused political kerosene on the raging Republican fire over foreign policy.

By tapping the 39-year-old Sen. J.D. Vance, one of the party’s leading national security doves, Trump strengthened the hand of the isolationist forces eager to undo the hawkish GOP consensus that has endured since the Reagan era.

Should Trump prevail in November, the non-interventionists will have one of their most articulate advocates at Trump’s side. What worries the hawks is that Vance may also be the last adviser in the former president’s ear.

While toeing the party line and praising Vance in their public comments, in private the interventionists ranged from horrified to merely alarmed that one of the loudest critics of aiding Ukraine could soon be first in line for the presidency. The grimaces, sighs and whispered frustrations from the old guard as they made their way through the convention reception circuit were easy to find in the day after the selection.

Read the rest here.

In case further evidence was required that the Eisenhower Reagan era of Republican engagement with the world is over.

Some really bad numbers for Biden

There has been much talk lately about Biden's sinking poll numbers since the debate. Generally speaking, Democrats seem to already be conceding they are likely to lose the election with Biden at the top of the ticket. Republicans are publicly very confident. Privately, some are predicting a near landslide in electoral votes and have quietly begun vying for cabinet posts in the next administration. The recent attempt on Mr. Trump's life seems likely to add fuel to Trump's post-debate surge (or perhaps more accurately, Biden's collapse). 

Perusing the various statistics out there, I started looking at the states everybody is ignoring because they are never in play. (You would be correct; I have no life) And what I found in one really jarred me. 

Some states are so obvious that they don't generate a lot of polling. One of them is New York. The Empire State has not voted Republican since 1984, the year I cast my first vote for Ronald Reagan. Democrats in New York enjoy a roughly 2:1 advantage in voter registration over Republicans, who represent less than 30% of registered voters overall. To give you some perspective, Republicans have a slightly higher percentage of voters in California. New York is the definition of a one-party state with every branch of government and all statewide elected offices controlled by Democrats. 

As of this post, the last two state specific polls conducted in New York were done back in May and June, before Biden's debate meltdown. Those polls gave Biden a lead of 7 and 8% respectively. That averages out to 7.5%.

That is nuts.

In any state other than New York, that would be close enough to move the state from "safe Democrat," to "leans Democrat." But this is still New York, and no, it is not in play. There are enough people in that state who would vote for a cadaver in advanced state of decomposition over Donald Trump to keep it firmly in the Democratic column. 

But Biden should be polling a solid double digit lead there. The fact that even before the debate, his lead was only in the single digits in a state as blue as New York should be a flashing red alert for Democrats (and anti-Trumpers of every persuasion). To my mind, this is a very clear signal that Democrats may be heading for an election wipe out. 

Russia: The brutal cost of Putin's war

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. If anyone knows how to falsify figures to bolster weak causes, it is the Kremlin. 

From Stalin’s manipulation of Soviet productivity statistics during his Five Year Plans, to Khrushchev’s exaggeration in the Cold War of his missile numbers, no entity has proved as effective at fabricating facts to demoralise, unsettle and outmanoeuvre opponents.

Today, in a similar manner, Putin points at Russia’s 144 million citizens and argues, through his propaganda mouthpieces, that it is “impossible” for Kyiv to win his war, given Ukraine’s population is a paltry 37 million.

By this logic, figures released by British intelligence this week – that Russia lost more than 70,000 troops in the past two months, averaging daily conflict highs of 1,262 and 1,163 in May and June – become irrelevant. “Russia can always find more men”, one hears people say, justifying Western inaction.

Except it can’t. Raised on documentaries about the “unstoppable” Russian bear – capable of tearing its way through Eastern Europe, as it did in the Second World War – we forget that this is not possible in modern Russia. Nor is it even desirable for Moscow.

For one, while Putin has conducted several large-scale mobilisations, he remains cautious both in terms of the numbers of men he recruits and where they come from, prioritising conscripting in poorer communities far away from the power centres of Moscow and St Petersburg; often marginalised ethnic minorities. Already, some of these communities have given all they can, with reports of entire generations of men being wiped out in some towns and villages, triggering widespread, if localised (for now), protests.

Moscow’s caution in this regard means it is obliged to empty prisons, exonerating murderers and rapists so they can serve in the Russian army or mercenary outfits like Wagner. Again, this resource is not infinite: numbers are now said to be so low that Moscow is turning to women’s prisons. Given that, by design, women only make up 4 per cent of the Russian army, this is extremely telling.

But these are still relatively minor impediments when considered against broader trends. Russia’s fighting age population, at 14 million, is not gargantuan. With many not eligible or undesirable for recruitment for geographic reasons, the number shrinks further. Many of Russia’s young fled after the full-scale invasion: an estimated 300,000 by mid-March 2022, 500,000 by the end of August, and an additional 400,000 by early October. Estimates put the current number of the departed at over a million.

Then there’s the fact that the full-scale invasion deepened Russia’s demographic crisis. Deaths have outnumbered births in the country since 2000. That – two and half years into the full-scale invasion – as many as 350,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded is indicative of the scale of the catastrophe.

Read the rest here.

Trump v. US: With Great Power Comes Great Immunity

I have no end of uncharitable thoughts about recent American presidents; yet, when I’m cataloging their sins, the words “undue caution” have never sprung to mind. Could it fairly be said of any 21st-century president—George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, or Joe Biden—that his real flaw was being “unduly cautious in the discharge of his official duties”? When it comes to “the most powerful office in the world,” is “undue caution” a problem worth worrying about?

Chief Justice John Roberts insists that it is. In fact, the self-styled judicial “umpire” considers the specter of presidential risk aversion grave enough to justify rewriting the rules of the game. Toward that end, in Trump v. United States, Roberts conjures up a broad suite of criminal-process immunities previously unknown to our Constitution. The new privileges shield the president in the first instance, but they’re really for us—designed to ensure that we Americans will never suffer from an insufficiently energetic executive. Thanks.… I guess?

But if you think greater risks lie in presidential recklessness and contempt for the law, the president’s new immunities may give you pause. Just how much we should worry isn’t clear to me, in part because I’m not sure how much the historically remote threat of criminal prosecution has restrained presidents over the years. But what the Court’s just done definitely isn’t going to help.

I’m certain of this much at least: as a matter of constitutional exegesis, the chief justice’s majority opinion is creative lawyering at its worst. It’s the most flagrant instance of legislating from the bench since Harry Blackmun decamped to the Mayo Clinic medical library to bone up on obstetrics and write trimesters into the Constitution.

Read the rest here.

Prayers please

For all those effected by yesterday's violence. Lord have mercy!

Why Is the U.S. Still Pretending We Know Gender-Affirming Care Works?

Imagine a comprehensive review of research on a treatment for children found “remarkably weak evidence” that it was effective. Now imagine the medical establishment shrugged off the conclusions and continued providing the same unproven and life-altering treatment to its young patients.

This is where we are with gender medicine in the United States.

It’s been three months since the release of the Cass Review, an independent assessment of gender treatment for youths commissioned by England’s National Health Service. The four-year review of research, led by Dr. Hilary Cass, one of Britain’s top pediatricians, found no definitive proof that gender dysphoria in children or teenagers was resolved or alleviated by what advocates call gender-affirming care, in which a young person’s declared “gender identity” is affirmed and supported with social transition, puberty blockers and/or cross-sex hormones. Nor, she said, is there clear evidence that transitioning kids decreases the likelihood that gender dysphoric youths will turn to suicide, as adherents of gender-affirming care claim. These findings backed up what critics of this approach have been saying for years.

“The reality is that we have no good evidence on the long-term outcomes of interventions to manage gender-related distress,” Cass concluded. Instead, she wrote, mental health providers and pediatricians should provide holistic psychological care and psychosocial support for young people without defaulting to gender reassignment treatments until further research is conducted.

After the release of Cass’s findings, the British government issued an emergency ban on puberty blockers for people under 18. Medical societies, government officials and legislative panels in Germany, France, Switzerland, Scotland, the Netherlands and Belgium have proposed moving away from a medical approach to gender issues, in some cases directly acknowledging the Cass Review. Scandinavian countries have been moving away from the gender-affirming model for the past few years. Reem Alsalem, the United Nations special rapporteur on violence against women and girls, called the review’s recommendations “seminal” and said that policies on gender treatments have “breached fundamental principles” of children’s human rights, with “devastating consequences.”

But in the United States, federal agencies and professional associations that have staunchly supported the gender-affirming care model greeted the Cass Review with silence or utter disregard.

Read the rest here.

US & NATO accuse Russia of assassination plots and sabotage

US intelligence discovered earlier this year that the Russian government planned to assassinate the chief executive of a powerful German arms manufacturer that has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, according to five US and western officials familiar with the episode.

The plot was one of a series of Russian plans to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine’s war effort, these sources said. The plan to kill Armin Papperger, a white-haired goliath who has led the German manufacturing charge in support of Kyiv, was the most mature.

When the Americans learned of the effort, they informed Germany, whose security services were then able to protect Papperger and foil the plot. A high-level German government official confirmed that Berlin was warned about the plot by the US.

For more than six months, Russia has been carrying out a sabotage campaign across Europe, largely by proxy. It has recruited local amateurs for everything from arson attacks on warehouses linked to arms for Ukraine to petty acts of vandalism — all designed to stymie the flow of weapons from the West to Ukraine and blunt public support for Kyiv.

But the intelligence suggesting that Russia was willing to assassinate private citizens underlined to Western officials just how far Moscow was willing to go in a parallel shadow war it is waging across the west.

Papperger was an obvious target: His company, Rheinmetall, is the largest and most successful German manufacturer of the vital 155mm artillery shells that have become the make-or-break weapon in Ukraine’s grinding war of attrition. The company is opening an armored vehicle plant inside of Ukraine in the coming weeks, an effort that one source familiar with the intelligence said was deeply concerning to Russia. After a series of gains earlier this year, Moscow’s war effort has once again stalled amid redoubled Ukrainian defenses and punishing losses in personnel.

Read the rest here.

Is Germany’s church tax ‘miracle’ over?

Each year, the journalist Peter Winnemöller noted, hundreds of thousands of people formally left the Catholic Church in Germany. But year after year, church tax income continued to grow.

But what Winnemöller facetiously called the “Kirchensteuerwunder” — the church tax miracle — may be over.

The German bishops’ conference announced July 8 that church tax revenue was 6.51 billion euros (around $7 billion) in 2023.

That’s a lot, of course, but it marked a 5% drop on the year before, when church tax income was a record 6.84 billion euros (roughly $7.4 billion).

What exactly is the church tax? How is the so-called miracle even possible? And is it truly coming to an end?

For many Catholics outside of Germany, the idea of a church tax is bizarre. But within Germany, it’s a largely unquestioned feature of Catholic life.

It’s telling that while Germany’s controversial “synodal way” produced 150 pages of resolutions calling for radical changes to Catholic teachings and practices, it did not offer a single proposal for reform of the Kirchensteuer. 

A cynic might say that’s because the tax helps to keep afloat the lay Central Committee of German Catholics (ZdK), which co-sponsored the synodal way alongside Germany’s bishops.

Perhaps, but it might simply be that few can imagine an alternative to a system that is rooted in the medieval practice of tithing but took on its present form in 1919.

In Germany today, religious communities that are corporations under public law have a right to levy taxes on their members. 

Every person in Germany — including foreigners — who says they are Catholic on an official registration form must pay an 8-9% surcharge on top of their income tax liability, depending on the state in which they live. 

This sum is collected directly from employees’ paychecks on the Church’s behalf by the state authorities, which claim roughly 3% of the total revenue.

The only way for baptized Catholics to opt out of the system is to declare formally that they are leaving the Church, after which they are told they may no longer receive the sacraments, hold Church posts, or serve as baptismal or confirmation sponsors.

Read the rest here.

HT: Dr. Tighe

Note: To the best of my knowledge, Orthodox Christians are not subject to the church tax in Germany. 

Cato Institute: The Court Went Too Far on Presidential Immunity

In Trump v. US, a majority of the Supreme Court has laid down an astonishingly broad view of presidential immunity from criminal prosecution over official actions, even those taken for heinous motives and with no show of justification. We should heed the warnings of dissenting Justice Sonia Sotomayor, joined by Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, who charge the majority with concocting an “atextual, ahistorical, and unjustifiable” array of immunities that will too often place above the law a president bent on criminal misuse of his powers of office. 

Nowhere in the Constitution is there mention of executive immunity, which was a topic of peculiar interest to the Founders and Framers. Alexander Hamilton wrote in Federalist 69 that unlike the “king of Great Britain,” the chief executive of the United States would “be liable to prosecution and punishment in the ordinary course of law,” and in Federalist 77 named “subsequent prosecution in the common course of law,” in addition to impeachment, as checks on “abuse of the executive authority.”

Notwithstanding this history, it was probably foreordained that the court would find some degree of presidential immunity. The US Justice Department under administrations of both parties has long taken for granted an immunity of some dimension or other, and the current Department, former President Trump’s adversary here, did not retreat from that view in this case. Although the court had never had to rule on criminal immunity, a 5–4 majority in the 1982 case of Nixon v. Fitzgerald had recognized an immunity from civil claims, such as for wrongful dismissal, over official presidential actions.

However, the Fitzgerald Court explicitly recognized that immunity from criminal prosecution would raise entirely different issues because the public welfare is far more deeply implicated when a president commits a crime than when he may happen to commit, say, a tort.

Read the rest here.

UK General Election (seeing red)

There is an old saying in politics, that each election is different. Some years you are the windshield, and in others you're the bug. (Unless you're Donald Trump, in which case you never lose.)

Early reports from the UK where the polls have now closed, suggest that Labour is on track for a record majority while the Conservatives appear to have suffered their worst defeat in modern political history. Labour's massive win and the corresponding collapse of the Tories, appears to be at least in part due to the infighting on the right. Specifically, the rise of the new Reform Party and its rightwing populist leader Nigel Farage. Exit polls suggest that Reform, on track to win perhaps 13 seats, actually got a larger share of the popular vote than the Liberal Democrats, on track to win around 60 seats. That means that they are almost certainly responsible for a very large number of normally safe Conservative seats swinging to Labour. 

The other news, some might call it a silver lining in a very dark cloud, is that it looks like the SNP, Scotland's leftwing secessionist party, has been absolutely pasted.  The numbers are not firm as of this post, but exit polling suggests they are on track to lose around 80% of their seats in Westminster. In all cases the beneficiary being Labour. It should be noted that Scotland has a devolved parliament, and the SNP still controls the government there with the next Scottish election not scheduled for another two years. 

Supreme Court punts on a potentially huge sleeper case

The Supreme Court has declined to hear a case with potentially major repercussions. The case involves a man convicted decades ago of a fairly trivial non-violent crime that could have allowed for a prison sentence. However, he served no time and has not been in trouble with the law before or since. Current Federal law prohibits anyone convicted of a crime punishable by more than a year in prison, the customary definition of a felony, from ever being able to own or possess a firearm, irrespective of whether the crime was violent or not. He has sued to have his gun rights restored. The US Court of Appeals in a split decision sided with him and the state appealed to the Supreme Court. The high court returned the case in question to the lower courts for reconsideration in light of its recent decision upholding a ban on firearms ownership by someone under a domestic violence restraining order. In that case, the 8-1 decision specifically stated that the government had a legitimate right to disarm people who could be reasonably seen as a threat to others. If that is now the legal standard, then this could have far ranged consequences. 

It is long established in law that convicted felons can be deprived of some of their civil rights. Until fairly recent times most states routinely barred felons from voting, serving on juries or holding elective office. Today, 49 of the 50 states have laws that more or less automatically restore some of those rights. (Virginia is the outlier.)  The conditions vary from state to state, but typically the right to vote is restored after an offender satisfies the terms of their sentence. However, almost all states do not allow for guns to be owned by persons with a criminal record, and the Federal law has been on the books since the late 1960s. 

I don't see how the courts could go down this particular path without upending all of this. Are they going to elevate the right to own a gun above the right to vote etc.? Are they prepared to strike down centuries of legal precedent and affirm basic civil rights for anyone not actually in prison? 

For the most part, the press and media have given only passing attention to this case and seem to be missing entirely its broader ramifications. This could be the legal equivalent to a ticking bomb. 

Carl Bernstein: Biden's debate melt down was not a "one off"

Journalist Carl Bernstein is calling President Biden’s debate performance against former President Trump last week a “horror show” and said his sources close to the commander in chief say what happened is not a one-time problem.

Bernstein said he’s been talking to several sources who are near Biden, those who love him, support him and raised money for his reelection, but they are “adamant that what we saw the other night, the Joe Biden we saw, is not a one-off.”

“There have been 15 to 20 occasions in the last year and a half when the President has appeared somewhat as he did in that horror show that we witnessed,” Bernstein told CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Monday evening. “And what’s so significant is that the people that this is coming from, and also how many people around the president are aware of such incidents.”

Read the rest here.

This can't go on. For the sake of the country, the president needs to stand aside and end his ill-considered bid for reelection. The decline in the president's health is clearly serious and likely to accelerate. Setting aside the obvious fact that he is unlikely to be able to defeat Donald Trump, which would be catastrophic, Mr. Biden is simply unfit to be president for another four years. The frantic denials from the White House are reminding me of 1944 when those around FDR knew he was gravely ill and went to great lengths to cover it up. In the increasingly improbable event that Biden is reelected, we should all understand that the next president is almost certain to be Kamala Harris. 

The Supreme Court Ruling

I'm a constitutional conservative and this was a very bad decision with no foundation in originalism. The Founders would be appalled. I expected a finding for some immunity, but that it would be very narrowly defined. The old academic "what if..." someone plants a nuclear bomb in a city and only he knows where it is. He is taking the 5th. Can the POTUS authorize torture? Yes, of course. But that is a much more extreme version of the old debate about whether it's OK to run a red light if you are rushing someone to the hospital with life threatening injuries. Any claim of immunity for a crime should be examined on a case-by-case basis and tested with the question; would failing to break the law result in grave harm to the country or substantial loss of life, and this being so obvious and self-evident that the president might be rightly regarded as derelict in their duty if they failed to act? This decision goes way too far.

Alice Linsley: Changing the Church by Stealth

The shrinking Episcopal Church welcomes all. It prides itself on diversity and inclusion. In 1976 the General Convention of ECUSA affirmed homosexual behavior when it passed the “we are children of God” resolution.

In 1977, Bishop Paul Moore (NY) ordained the lesbian Ellen Marie Barrett to the priesthood. She served as Integrity's first co-president along with the late Louie Crew.

Most Episcopalians slept through these changes, many of which were launched with great stealth, as Crew admits in this statement from his paper "Changing the Church": "More 'irregular' ordinations of women took place… after our convention. In Washington at the time, on a missionary journey to our new chapters in the east, Jim Wickliff and I yielded to the counsel of friends who advised that our visibility at the ordination might put in jeopardy lesbians among all early ordinands."

However, the consecration of Gene Robinson in November 2003 stirred many to wakefulness, but by then it was too late to reverse the disastrous course of the Episcopal Church.

There is a popular saying Lex orandi, lex credendi. It means that that there is a direct relationship between the law of praying (lex orandi) and the law of believing (lex credendi). Change the prayers of a community and you can change their beliefs. Innovation can direct people's thoughts away from the received tradition. That happened when the Episcopal Church introduced its 1979 prayer book. It should have been called "A Book of Alternative Services" as was done in other Anglican Provinces that introduced experimental liturgies in the 1970s.

By comparing the ECUSA/TEC prayer book to the Book of Common Prayer 1928 one sees the degradation of orthodox theology and the exultation of TEC's social justice agenda. Even advocates of the 1979 prayer book recognized that it presents heterodox theology, what Urban T. Holmes termed a "differentiated" theology. An Episcopal priest and theologian, Holmes understood that the liturgical revisions of the 1970s drew more on Process Theology and modern philosophy than on Scripture, Tradition, and the Church Fathers. In reference to the Episcopal Church 1979 Prayer Book, he wrote, "It is evident that Episcopalians as a whole are not clear about what has happened. The renewal movement in the 1970s, apart from the liturgical renewal, often reflects a nostalgia for a classical theology which many theologians know has not been viable for almost 200 years. The 1979 Book of Common Prayer is a product of a corporate, differentiated theological mind, which is not totally congruent with many of the inherited formularies of the last few centuries. This reality must soon ‘come home to roost’ in one way or another."

Holmes added, "The church has awakened to the demise of classical theology."

Holmes admitted that the 1979 prayer book is not orthodox, and it does not align with what Anglicans have always believed and how they have always prayed.

Read the rest here.

The New York Times calls on Biden to end his bid for re-election

To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Race

The Debate: And the winner was...

Dean Phillips

Defund the Police has new supporters

House Republicans on Wednesday advanced legislation that would slash funding for the Department of Justice and U.S. attorneys’ offices across the country, the latest attempt by the G.O.P. to punish federal law enforcement agencies that they claim have been weaponized against conservatives, especially former President Donald J. Trump.

The spending bill, approved along party lines by a subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee, would cut funding for salaries and other expenses at the Justice Department by 20 percent, and for U.S. attorneys’ offices by 11 percent.

It comes as the Department of Justice is prosecuting two federal cases against the former president and presumptive 2024 Republican nominee, one related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and the other concerning his retention of classified materials.

It is also an early example of how House Republicans are again trying to inject the annual government spending bills with partisan policy mandates aimed at amplifying political grievances and culture war issues. A similar process played out last year, but the most conservative measures were ultimately jettisoned in bipartisan negotiations with Senate Democrats and the White House.

Read the rest here.

Damian Thompson on the rumors from Rome

A month ago, 18,000 young people walked on pilgrimage from Paris to Chartres Cathedral in order to demonstrate their love of the Traditional Latin Mass — an intricate and solemn ceremony which, to the horror of Pope Francis, is attracting an unlikely following among Generation Z Catholics.

Inside the 800-year-old cathedral, the Mass was celebrated by Cardinal Gerhard Müller, once Pope Francis’s doctrinal chief and now one of his leading critics. His meticulous ritual actions were followed with rapt attention by the congregation.

Very few of them were born when this rite of Mass was mothballed after the Second Vatican Council in 1970. Even the 76-year-old Müller was ordained priest long after it had disappeared from parish life. He has only recently learned to say it, in response to an unprecedented demand created by Pope Benedict XVI’s bold decision in 2007 to make the Traditional Latin Mass or TLM available to Catholics everywhere.

But will the annual Chartres pilgrimage ever happen again? This week Rome is buzzing with rumours that Pope Francis — a veteran opponent of the old liturgy, which he regards as reactionary and effeminate — is planning to ban the Latin Mass from almost every Catholic church in the world.

Three years ago Francis instituted a partial ban that ejected TLM faithful from churches that, in some cases, they had paid to restore. The retired Benedict was grief-stricken by the decision but had taken a vow of silence. In the United States, the heartland of the Generation Z renaissance, many traditionalists can now hear the old Mass only in church halls, basements or school gyms.

The Vatican official responsible for enforcing Francis’s ruling, ironically entitled Traditonis Custodes (Guardians of Tradition), is his liturgy chief Cardinal Arthur Roche, a native of Batley, West Yorkshire, who has approached his task with Cromwellian zeal.

Read the rest here.

UK Election: Poll predicts huge win for Labour

A new poll commissioned by the right leaning Daily Telegraph suggests Labour is heading for a landslide win in the July 4th election. The poll puts Labour on course to win more than 500 seats in the next parliament, while the Conservatives may hold as few as 53 seats. If this proves even remotely accurate, it will deliver the largest electoral majority in British history and leave the Conservative Party on political life support. Among the secondary parties, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to be only a few seats short of the Tories while the secessionist Scottish National Party would see its numbers drop by 40 to just eight. More than half of current ministers are believed in danger of losing their seats, including Rishi Sunak who could become the first sitting Prime Minister to lose his seat in a general election. The right-wing Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party) headed by Nigel Farage is not expected to win any seats but is likely to contribute to the Tory collapse. 

The poll is a bit of an outlier, with most others showing a big win for Labour but not quite the existential collapse of the Tories that this one is predicting. And the pollsters acknowledge that around 100 seats are close enough that some could remain Conservative. But even in a best-case scenario for the Conservatives, Labour is likely to walk away with a de facto election proof majority leaving them firmly in government for at least the next ten years.

Story here (paywalled)

Update: Another poll, this one from Sky News. It's also pretty grim for the Conservatives, if perhaps just a bit less apocalyptic. 

Report: Vatican considering crack down on Tridentine Mass

Rorate Caeli reports that "the most credible sources" are warning of an effort within the Holy See to impose what may amount to a near total ban on the pre-Vatican II Catholic Mass. Details, such as they are, can be found at the link.

Pope Francis is well known for his hostility to Catholic traditionalists and has already taken steps to restrict the use of the older sacramental rites. If the report is accurate, this would be a massive escalation of his campaign to suppress the ancient liturgical patrimony of the Western Church.

Update: There have been some follow-up posts over at Rorate that are worth a read. The contempt for traditionalist Catholics behind this movement is quite shocking. On which note, it bears repeating that any church that holds these kinds of views, or believes a single bishop has the right and authority to suppress the liturgical patrimony of more than a billion people, is one that we Orthodox can never be in communion with. 

Presbyterian troubles

And then there is this.

Ivory Coast Breaks with United Methodists

The Methodist Church in the Ivory Coast has broken with the United Methodist Church following the US church's adoption of pro-alphabet rules and guidelines at its recent general conference. This effectively removes around 1.2 million members from the global United Methodist Church at a stroke.

Back (sort of)

The most unpleasant road trip I can remember is over. What should have lasted three days turned into almost a week as I was stricken by a nasty case of what turned out to be Norovirus. For three full days I was flat on my back (when not dashing for the bathroom) in a Red Roof Inn off I 95 in a small town in Georgia. Thank God for the sympathetic staff at the hotel and the local urgent care clinic who, when I finally broke down and went, swiftly diagnosed the illness and hooked me up to an IV to help rehydrate me and mitigate the nausea. The illness has now passed but I am still extremely run down. I hope to catch up with the backlogged emails etc. over the next couple of days.

Traveling

I am traveling and expect little or no posting for the next few days. Please be patient with comment moderation or waiting for replies to emails. 

Libertarians Pass on Trump and RFK

The Libertarian Party chose one of its own as its presidential nominee on Sunday night, capping a grueling day of elimination voting and a boisterous four-day event, where both Donald J. Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. unsuccessfully sought to court the group’s backing.

The nominee, Chase Oliver — an openly gay former Democrat who in 2022 forced a runoff in a race for a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia — beat out nine other candidates at the party’s national convention in Washington, including Mr. Kennedy.

Mr. Kennedy, who was a late addition to the official list of potential nominees on Sunday morning, was eliminated in the first round of voting Sunday afternoon, with 19 votes — just 2 percent of the total. Mr. Trump, who was not an official candidate, received six write-in votes in the first round.

The Libertarian Party is among the better-established minor parties, with name recognition and placement on the majority of state ballots in November. The Libertarian nominee is guaranteed to be on the November ballot in at least 37 states, a number that party leaders say they expect to grow in the coming months.

With its emphasis on unfettered individual liberties and limited government, the party draws supporters from across the political spectrum. Libertarian Party faithful call for the dismantling of the regulatory state — including, for some, the abolition of the Internal Revenue Service and the F.B.I. — as well as the legalization of drugs and sex work. Broadly, the party has embraced cryptocurrency, opposed tariffs and foreign military spending, and called for the release of the WikiLeaks founder, Julian Assange, who is being held in the U.K. and faces espionage charges in the U.S.

A theme of the party’s convention, displayed proudly on badges and signs at the convention, was: “Become Ungovernable.”

On Sunday, it almost was. The party took more than seven hours, and seven rounds of elimination voting, to get a presidential nominee — and even then the party nearly ended up without any candidate at all, as more than a third of the final voters cast ballots for “none of the above.”

Read the rest here.

Say what we will of the Libertarians, they just had a real political convention, complete with shouting, floor fights and multiple ballots to get a nominee. Neither the Democrats nor the GOP have had one in my lifetime. Their conventions are a tightly scripted three day long political commercial. 

On a side note, I have to give a very rare polite nod to Donald Trump, who actually stepped outside his cult bubble to address their convention. I have no idea what he was hoping to accomplish. But he went there and spoke to them. Not surprisingly, the most authoritarian and bigoted former president (and candidate) since Woodrow Wilson got a chilly reception from a party that is about as antithetical to Trumpism as any group I can think of. But he showed up, (Biden didn't although he was invited), and he kept his cool despite being heckled and getting his fair share of what we might call the "Bronx salute." 

Great Britain: Rishi Sunak vows to reinstate "National Service"

As the UK gears up for a general election on July 4th, the Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has vowed to reintroduce National Service (Britain's version of the draft) with an option for some kind of alternative community service. Britain has generally eschewed compulsory military service, except during the two world wars and the early years of the cold war. National Service was formally abolished in 1960. By contrast, military conscription remained in force in the United States until 1973. Polls show Labour with a commanding lead going into the election. 

Details.

Meanwhile, Labour is considering giving 16-year-olds the right to vote.

Catholic Priest Arrested Following Altercation During Communion

This is just bizarre and is getting a lot of coverage. Not surprisingly, most of the reports in the mainstream press/media are omitting important details. The woman was clearly behaving disruptively and attempted to forcibly take the sacrament when the priest, quite rightly, refused to commune her. 

On Campus, a New Social Litmus Test: Zionist or Not?

I'm not going to excerpt this. Read it here.

Eight in 10 New York towns and cities have lost population since 2020

Interesting statistical breakdown, but not terribly surprising.

From here.

Progressives Take a Hit in Oregon

The left took it on the chin in Oregon on Tuesday.

Major progressive figures had mobilized in a safe blue congressional district — and their preferred pick lost. Establishment Democrats, meanwhile, successfully blocked a more liberal candidate from winning the nomination for a key battleground seat.

That means Rep. Pramila Jayapal’s sister won’t be joining the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus in Washington next year. And that national Democrats get their candidate of choice to take on Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer — and avoid a rematch of a race they lost in 2022.

Many of the congressional primaries that were held across Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon were for safe seats — meaning the victors are poised to cruise to victory come the fall. But a handful of battleground races were finalized Tuesday, setting up competitive races, particularly in Oregon.

In addition to establishment Democrats’ big win in the Republican-held 5th District, general election contests were also set between Democratic Rep. Val Hoyle and veteran Monique DeSpain in the 4th District, and between Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas and repeat candidate Mike Erickson in the 6th.

Donald Trump-backed candidates had a good night, as did incumbents. But an abortion-rights playbook flopped for a former Democratic representative in Georgia, and the presidential candidates faced some of their final primary tests of their base appeal.

Here’s what happened in Tuesday’s primaries:

Read the rest here.

Historians on Donald Trump

When historians and political scientists rank presidents from best to worst, Donald Trump invariably comes out at the bottom.

This year, to give one example, the 2024 Presidential Greatness Project released the results of a survey of 154 current and former members of the presidents and executive politics section of the American Political Science Association.

The highest ranked included no surprises: on a scale of 0 to 100, Abraham Lincoln (95.03), Franklin Roosevelt (90.83), George Washington (90.32), Teddy Roosevelt (78.58) and Thomas Jefferson (77.53).

Dead last: Donald Trump (10.92), substantially below James Buchanan (16.71), Andrew Johnson (21.56), Franklin Pierce (24.6) and William Henry Harrison (26.01).

There are other ways to rank American presidents, however: How consequential were they?

By these standards, Trump no longer falls at the bottom of the pack. That’s not necessarily a good thing. My view is that Trump is a consequential president for all the wrong reasons.

After the nation rejected the presidential bids of George Wallace, Pat Buchanan and David Duke, Trump demonstrated that the contemporary American electorate would put a candidate who appeals to voters’ worst instincts in the White House.

Trump has capitalized on the anger, fears and resentments of a besieged but fundamentally decent working class to exacerbate ethnonationalist hostility to immigrants and minorities, creating a right-wing populist antidemocratic movement.

In the process of building this MAGA coalition, Trump has made explicit the racist, anti-immigrant themes that have underpinned the Republican Party for the past half-century.

Persistently, insistently repeating election lies, subverting election norms, raising doubts about election integrity and refusing to commit to accepting the 2020 — or 2024 — vote count, Trump is focused on transforming the Republican Party into a cult with adherents willing to support a nominee who openly plans to undermine — indeed ravage — American democracy.

In that sense, Trump ranks high as a transformative president.

Read the rest here.

Ireland, Norway and Spain Recognize Palestinian State

Ireland is not a surprise. They have never had a warm relationship with Israel. The implications of this could be significant. 

Story here.

Britain to Vote on 4th of July

LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday set July 4 as the date for a national election that will determine who governs the U.K., choosing a day of good economic news to urge voters to give his governing Conservatives another chance.

“Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future,” Sunak said as he stood in heavy rain outside the prime minister’s residence.

Sunak’s center-right party has seen its support dwindle steadily after 14 years in power. It has struggled to overcome a series of crises including an economic slump, ethics scandals and a revolving door of leaders in the past two years.

The center-left Labour Party is strongly favored to defeat Sunak’s party.

The prime minister’s announcement was nearly drowned out by protesters blasting “Things Can Only Get Better,” a Labour campaign song from the Tony Blair era.

Bookies and pollsters rank Sunak as a long shot to stay in power. But he said he would “fight for every vote.”

Read the rest here.

Not a date generally associated with favorable events in British history.

Trump campaign to sue filmmakers behind ‘The Apprentice’

Former President Trump’s reelection campaign plans to sue the filmmakers behind the new biopic film, “The Apprentice,” which follows the former president’s early years in the real estate business, for including what it calls “blatantly false assertions.” 

“We will be filing a lawsuit to address the blatantly false assertions from these pretend filmmakers,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement to The Hill. “This garbage is pure fiction which sensationalizes lies that have been long debunked. As with the illegal Biden Trials, this is election interference by Hollywood elites, who know that President Trump will retake the White House and beat their candidate of choice because nothing they have done has worked.”

“This ‘film’ is pure malicious defamation, should not see the light of day, and doesn’t even deserve a place in the straight-to-DVD section of a bargain bin at a soon-to-be-closed discount movie store, it belongs in a dumpster fire,” Cheung continued.

Read the rest here.

Maybe I need to get out more. Until I saw this story, I'd never even heard of this movie.

Disregard previous post

Ack. I really need to pay closer attention to little things like dates. Thanks to Thomas in the commenst section for pointing that out.

John Stewart on Government Corruption

Slovak Prime Minister Gravely Wounded in Assassination Attempt

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is in life-threatening condition after being wounded in a shooting after a political event Wednesday afternoon, according to his Facebook profile.

The populist, pro-Russian leader, 59, was hit in the stomach after four shots were fired outside the House of Culture in the town of Handlova, some 150 kilometers (93 miles) northeast of the capital where the leader was meeting with supporters, according to reports on TA3, a Slovak TV station. A suspect has been detained, the country’s president said in a televised statement.

A message posted to Fico’s Facebook account said that the leader “has been shot multiple times and is currently in life-threatening condition.”

Read the rest here.

This is the number one news story in almost the entire world... except for the US, where it has received scant coverage by any of the major news networks who remain obsessed with our own politics, Donald Trump's trial, and a just announced political debate set for June. The culture in all three of our 24 hour news networks is embarrassing. 

Archbishop Elpidophoros: Opposition to gay marriage is fascist

From here.

See also this.

This is simply scandalous. It is the sort of drivel I would expect from mainline Protestants, not the head of the Greek Orthodox Archdiocese in North America. The man is an open heretic and should be immediately deposed.  

Between the legitimately fascist ethno-nationalism being preached in Moscow and the byzantine rite Episcopalianism being embraced by the Greeks here in the US, the Church is clearly in a state of crisis. 

HT: Blog reader John L.

San Francisco is Giving Free Booze to Homeless Alcoholics

Words fail.

Donald Trump May Be Talking Himself Into Prison

Normally the sort of charges he is facing in New York would not result in a jail sentence for a variety of reasons. But, should he be convicted, Trump's repeated attacks on the court, judge, prosecutors, witnesses, and even jurors, with the obvious intent of perverting the course of justice and undermining the public's confidence in the fair administration of the law, can be held against him when considering an appropriate sentence.  Bluntly, his behavior has been so egregious that it could be fairly interpreted by the judge and prosecutors as demonstrating a complete lack of repentance and a near absolute contempt for the judicial system and the rule of law in general. 

And that will almost always land you in the crossbarred hotel.

A Thank-You Note to the Campus Protesters

Dear anti-Israel campus protesters:

Though it may take a few years before you realize it, supporters of Israel like me have reasons to give thanks to militant anti-Zionists like you.

Recently, a friend asked what I would have made of your protests if they had been less fervently one-sided. If, for instance, pro-Palestinian student groups at Harvard and Columbia hadn’t castigated Israel immediately following the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. Or if Jewish students and professors hadn’t faced violence, harassment and antisemitic imagery from you or your allies from Harvard to Columbia to Berkeley to Stanford. Or if you had made a point of acknowledging the reality of the Oct. 7 rapes or the suffering of Israel’s hostages and their families while demanding their safe return. Or if you consistently condemned and distanced yourselves from Hamas. Or if all of you had simply followed rules that gave you every right to free expression without trampling on the rights of others to a safe and open campus.

In short, what if your protests had focused on Israel’s policies, whether in Gaza or the West Bank, rather than demanding the complete elimination of Israel as a Jewish state? What if you had avoided demonizing anyone who supports Israel’s right to exist — which includes a vast majority of Jews — as modern-day Nazis?

Read the rest here.

The Methodists Go Hard Left After Schism

The Presbyterian Church of Scotland is in Catastrophic Decline

Christ is risen!

Memory Eternal!

Fr. John Hunkwicke has reposed following a long battle with cancer. I understand he had been ill since at least last summer and had recently been confined to his bed. Some days ago he received the last sacraments of the Catholic Church. If my information is accurate, his most recent blog post (see the sidebar) appears to be posthumous.

Normally I don't blog during the last few days of Holy Week, but felt this needed to be posted directly. I appreciate the notification from Dr. Tighe. 

China is fortifying itself against future sanctions

China is dumping US treasuries and buying Gold

China is arming fast and becoming more aggressive

China using ‘boiling frog’ strategy to mask rising aggression in Pacific, says US commander 

China's military spending concerning given 'failing economy', US admiral says

Scandal and Intrigue in the Twilight of the Francis Pontificate

This is a fascinating look at Francis, his papal court, where it's been and where it's going. One of the better essays I've read on the topic in quite a while. Read it here.

HT: Dr. Tighe

CNN Poll Gives Trump Wide Lead Over Biden

In a two-way race Trump leads by 6%. In a five-way race including RFK Jr and the two far left candidates, Trump leads by 9%. If this poll holds up and is anywhere near accurate on election day, Trump could win an electoral blowout the likes of which we haven't seen since the 1980s. 

Caveat: Right now, the poll is an outlier. It is wildly inconsistent with virtually all recent polling data. So, we will need to see if this a bad poll or if it is the first sign of a major Trump surge. Until things become clearer, team Biden is probably not going to be sleeping well. 

Prayers please

Fr John Hunwicke, whose excellent blog has been in the sidebar for as long as I can remember, is ill. In your charity, please keep him and his family in your prayers.

Anti-Trump Legal Pundits Have Been Talking to Each Other (off the record)

As the Jan. 6 committee was working on its bombshell investigation into the Capitol riot and President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the last election, committee staffers took some time out of their seemingly 24-hour jobs one day in 2022 to brief a group of lawyers and legal pundits on a Zoom call.

The people on the call weren’t affiliated with the investigation or the government. But they would have been familiar to anyone who watches cable news. They were some of the country’s most well-known legal and political commentators, and they were there to get insights into the committee’s work and learn about what to look for at the hearings.

The group’s gathering was not a one-time event, but in fact an installment in an exclusive weekly digital salon, whose existence has not been previously reported, for prominent legal analysts and progressive and conservative anti-Trump lawyers and pundits. Every Friday, they meet on Zoom to hash out the latest twists and turns in the Trump legal saga — and intellectually stress-test the arguments facing Trump on his journey through the American legal system.

The meetings are off the record — a chance for the group’s members, many of whom are formally or loosely affiliated with different media outlets, to grapple with a seemingly endless array of novel legal issues before they hit the airwaves or take to print or digital outlets to weigh in with their thoughts. About a dozen or more people join any given call, though no one takes attendance. Some group members wouldn’t describe themselves with any partisan or ideological lean, but most are united by their dislike of Trump.

The group’s host is Norman Eisen, a senior Obama administration official, longtime Trump critic and CNN legal analyst, who has been convening the group since 2022 as Trump’s legal woes ramped up. Eisen was also a key member of the team of lawyers assembled by House Democrats to handle Trump’s first impeachment.

The regular attendees on Eisen’s call include Bill Kristol, the longtime conservative commentator, and Laurence Tribe, the famed liberal constitutional law professor. John Dean, who was White House counsel under Richard Nixon before pleading guilty to obstruction of justice in connection with Watergate, joins the calls, as does George Conway, a conservative lawyer and co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project. Andrew Weissmann, a longtime federal prosecutor who served as one of the senior prosecutors on Robert Mueller’s Trump-Russia investigation and is now a legal analyst for MSNBC, is another regular on the calls. Jeffrey Toobin, a pioneer in the field of cable news legal analysis, is also a member of the crew. The rest of the group includes recognizable names from the worlds of politics, law and media.

Read the rest here.

For the benefit of anyone new to the blog, I am not the world's biggest fan of Donald Trump. That said, this is leaving a bad taste in my mouth. I'm not sure it's a flaming violation of journalistic ethics, where the boundaries can sometimes be a bit fuzzy. But if this doesn't cross that line, it strikes me as dancing uncomfortably close to it. 

Johnson takes a stand

Political courage from an unexpected source.

Kyrill and the Babylonian Captivity of the Russian Orthodox Church

Obviously, I would not presume to judge any individual's relationship with God. But as an institution, it is becoming clearer, almost by the day, that the Russian Church has gone dangerously off the rails. To which end I find myself substantially in agreement with this short blog post. 

Lord have mercy.

New York City (what's wrong)

This is a really good video explaining what's wrong with New York from somebody who is obviously not hard right in their politics.

Ben Bernanke Takes Aim at Central Bank Forecasts

Central banks the world over failed to predict the surge in inflation that started three years ago. Now they’re trying to learn from their mistakes.

For the Bank of England, that meant commissioning former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to write a review of the U.K. monetary authority’s forecasting system. The implications of the findings, published Friday, could reverberate far beyond Britain.

To be fair to the BOE, it didn’t do particularly worse than others in failing to see that supply-chain problems, energy-price spikes, and geopolitical tensions would generate the worst bout of inflation in a generation. Bernanke, who guided the U.S. through the 2008-09 financial crisis and won the Nobel Prize in 2022 for his work on the impact of bank runs in markets, notes the shocks were difficult to forecast.

“The forecasting and policy challenges faced by the Bank of England in recent years were hardly unique,” said Bernanke, now a fellow at the Brookings Institution. “The Bank, like other central banks and policy institutions, will be working to draw the appropriate lessons from this experience.”

Read the rest here.

Latest Polls: Election is a toss up

An averaging of recent national polls show President Biden has significantly reduced Donald Trump's once formidable lead in the polls to a de facto draw. Real Clear Politics average of polls from the last few weeks show Trump's lead has narrowed to .02 percent in a straight match up between him and Biden. That is a statistical tie. In a five way race with RFK Jr and the two far left independents thrown in, Trump holds a 2 point advantage. However, that is well within the customary margin of error. And with most polls showing around 8% of voters undecided, the election is currently wide open. One point on which Americans are in overwhelming agreement is their dislike of both Trump and Biden, with a super majority of voters expressing deep dissatisfaction with the choice between the two men. Thus far however, this has not translated into any serious support for the third party candidates. All of whom collectively are polling only in the low single digits. (Kennedy's polling numbers have recently fallen off a cliff.) It seems increasingly likely that the election will be decided by uncommitted independents and political moderates.

Recent polling data can be found here. 

Patriarch of the West

Francis has revived the title renounced by Benedict XVI.

Now this is depressing

I've never seen the point in an automatic transmission. Where is the fun? Sure, it will get you from point A to point B. But so will a bus.

The US Stock Market is shrinking. Should we be worried?

The number of publicly traded companies in the United States is shrinking. Jamie Dimon, one of the world’s most influential business leaders, is worried.

At their peak in 1996, there were 7,300 publicly traded companies in the US. Today there are about 4,300.

It’s not that America has 40% fewer companies than it did 30 years ago, it’s that companies are increasingly staying private, largely outside the scrutiny of the public eye.

“The total should have grown dramatically, not shrunk,” wrote Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, in his annual shareholder letter on Monday.

The PE boom: The shrinking public market has private equity to blame — funds that pool money from investors to acquire or invest in companies.

When a PE fund buys a public company, it takes that company private. When it buys a company that isn’t yet public, it is kept that way. That means these funds have complete control over their companies and can encourage them to boost their profits as quickly as possible for a quick sale later down the line.

The number of private companies in the US backed by PE firms has grown from 1,900 to 11,200 over the last two decades, according to JPMorgan data.

Publicly listed companies are subject to regulatory oversight and disclosure requirements, which help ensure transparency and maintain investor confidence. With fewer companies listed, there may be a decrease in overall transparency and investor trust in the market, said Matthew Kennedy, head of data and content at Renaissance Capital.

Additionally, a company owned by PE can obfuscate ownership, what the company actually does and its profit the public and from regulators.

Dimon’s company, of course, makes a huge amount of money from taking companies public, so he’s not exactly an impartial observer. But Dimon said his concerns are broader than JPMorgan’s bottom line: If this trend continues, our understanding of the US economy could become hazier, he argued.

Read the rest here.

The Vatican Says "NO" to Gender Ideology

VATICAN CITY (AP) — The Vatican on Monday declared gender-affirming surgery and surrogacy as grave violations of human dignity, putting them on par with abortion and euthanasia as practices that it said reject God’s plan for human life.

The Vatican’s doctrine office issued “Infinite Dignity,” a 20-page declaration that has been in the works for five years. After substantial revision in recent months, it was approved March 25 by Pope Francis, who ordered its publication.

From a pope who has made outreach to the LGBTQ+ community a hallmark of his papacy, the document was received as a setback, albeit predictable, by trans Catholics. But its message was also consistent with the Argentine Jesuit’s long-standing belief that while trans people should be welcomed in the church, so-called “gender ideologies” should not.

In its most eagerly anticipated section, the Vatican repeated its rejection of “gender theory,” or the idea that one’s biological sex can change. It said God created man and woman as biologically different, separate beings, and said people must not tinker with that or try to “make oneself God.”

Read the rest here.

The pope is (mostly) right. Now there is a sentence I haven't written in a long time. I think I need to lie down for a few minutes. 

Gold Hits Record Highs

Gold prices hit a record high for a seventh straight session on Monday, fueled by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions, while strong economic data failed to dull bullion’s allure.

U.S. gold futures gained less than 0.1% to $2,346.90. Spot gold was just below flat at $2,328.28 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $2,353.79 earlier in the session.

China’s central bank added 160,000 troy ounces of gold to its reserves in March, it said. Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, and some eastern European countries have also been buying gold this year.

Read the rest here.

The Fourth Crusade

Francis and the ‘empty chair’ phase of his pontificate

ROME — Such is the frenetic nature of the Pope Francis papacy that even though Good Friday was less than a week ago, just a few days later it was hard to remember that it actually produced news. In the meantime, of course, we’ve had not only the pontiff’s traditional Easter activity but his latest tell-all interview book, once again, for a moment, transforming the papacy into a species of reality TV.

In this instance, Francis lifted the veil on the inner workings of two conclaves, those of 2005 and 2013, and also dished on his predecessor’s top aide, German Archbishop Georg Gänswein, claiming that he lacks “nobility and humanity” for the way in which he allegedly tried to pit Pope Benedict XVI against Francis.

As Italian journalist Massimo Gramellini put it, “At bottom, Bergoglio [the pope’s given name] is no more than a man of his times. We live in an era in which, some more and some less, we’re all exhibitionists, devoured by an insatiable need to make our lives public, in the hope of being appreciated and understood.”

Despite all that, it’s still worth returning to Good Friday for a moment, because it produced an iconic image of the late stages of the Francis papacy: An empty white chair at Rome’s Colosseum, where the pontiff had been scheduled to preside over the traditional Way of the Cross procession, but where he ended up being a no-show at the last minute due to health concerns.

In a way, it was odd that anyone ever seriously entertained the idea that the 87-year-old pope would physically attend the Via Crucis (Stations of the Cross) on a chilly yet humid Roman evening, exactly the wrong conditions for someone struggling to kick the after-effects of a series of colds, flu, and bronchitis. In all probability, it was likely Francis’ determination that kept the possibility alive until the very last moment, and which led to the specter of his empty chair having to be carted away in front of live TV cameras.

Read the rest here.

Quote of the day...

"If Republicans want to name something after him, I’d suggest they find a federal prison.” -Gerry Connolly (D VA) responding to a Republican proposal to rename Dulles International Airport after Donald Trump. 

This would be hysterically funny if they weren't serious. Trumpism is a cult. 

Before Computers

 
Checking train reservations at Union Station in 1942. From here. (Click the link for full sized image.)

Memory Eternal

Lou Conter has reposed at 102. He was the last living survivor of the USS Arizona sunk at Pear Harbor.

Sunday of St. Gregory Palamas

Israeli High Court Ends Public Subsidies for Ultra-Orthodox Men Who Refuse Military Service

In a step that could have deep political and societal ramifications, the High Court of Justice issued an interim order Thursday evening barring the government from providing funds to ultra-Orthodox yeshivas for students eligible for IDF enlistment — as the legal framework for deferring their military service will no longer exist.

A government resolution from June 2023 instructing the IDF to temporarily not draft Haredi students despite the expiration of a law governing the matter will itself expire at midnight on March 31.

The court decision, which goes into effect April 1, comes after the government delayed for days the submission of a proposal to the court for plans to increase ultra-Orthodox military enlistment, and constitutes a sharp indication from the judges that their patience with repeated attempts to put off decisions on the matter is finally running out.

The political battle over enlistment has thrown Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition into disarray, with National Unity’s Benny Gantz threatening to bolt if the Knesset passes a bill allowing blanket exemptions to remain — even if it does satisfy the court — while the Haredim have said they will quit if the government fails to pass legislation to prevent the draft.

Haredi parties lambasted the High Court’s decision, with the head of United Torah Judaism, Housing and Construction Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf, describing it as constituting “severe harm to those who toil in Torah” and “a stain and a disgrace.”

Read the rest here.

In 1948 when the original exemption from the draft was put in place there were approximately 40,000 ultra-Orthodox Jews living in Israel. Most Haredi had been murdered by Hitler and the Nazis during the world war and there was a serious fear that a significant part of Jewish culture, history, religious thought and study was on the brink of being lost. Today, the ultra-Orthodox make up more than 10% of the country's population. The men generally spend their days praying and studying Torah and other religious texts. Most do not work, but subsist off public stipends, welfare and what income their wives bring in. This, coupled with their refusal to serve in the army in a nation where military service is compulsory for most men, has become a source of not inconsiderable resentment. The Haredi tend to live apart from most of society and often follow the direction of their rabbis with astonishing strictness, including in how they vote. This makes them an extremely powerful political block in Israel due to the country's system of proportionate representation in the Knesset (parliament). The current government is partly dependent on the support of ultra-Orthodox parties for its majority, and they have threatened to bring down the government if their legal privileges are not extended.

Sam Bankman-Fried Gets 25 Years

Meanwhile the great crypto-con continues. As of this post, people are spending near $70,000 a piece for imaginary money called bitcoin. Stulti et pecunia eorum cito separantur. 

If I ever feel some overwhelming urge to play with fake money, I will grab the Monopoly board in the closet.

The RNC is now a fully absorbed part of the Trump cult

With members of his family now firmly in charge at the Republican National Committee, there have been some interesting changes. All donations to the RNC now go first to Trump's reelection campaign and then to the Political Action Committee that has been covering most of his legal bills. No word on what part, if any, is left for other candidates, campaigns or other issues down ballot. One of the first moves by Lara Trump on taking the helm at the RNC was to purge most of the staff with the understanding that they could reapply for their jobs. Among the questions being asked of all new applicants and reapplying purged staffers is "do you believe the 2020 election was stolen?"

Trumpism is a cult.

Russia is murdering Ukrainian POWs

Russia may have executed more than 30 recently captured Ukrainian prisoners of war over the winter months, according to reports received by the U.N. human rights watchdog.

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights “verified three of these incidents in which Russian servicemen executed seven Ukrainian servicemen hors de combat,” reads the latest U.N. report on the human rights situation in Ukraine published Tuesday.

From December to February, as President Vladimir Putin’s invading Russian forces were rapidly advancing in Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region, and attempting to recapture Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region, dozens of execution videos were posted on social media.

In eight of the reported cases, videos showed Russian servicemen killing Ukrainian POWs who had laid down their weapons or using other captured Ukrainian POWs as human shields.

“As of 29 February 2024, OHCHR had obtained corroborating information for one of the videos,” the report reads. “In that video, what appears to be a group of armed Russian soldiers stands 15-20 meters behind three Ukrainian servicemen who are kneeling with their hands behind their heads. After a few seconds, smoke appears from the Russian soldiers’ weapons and the Ukrainian servicemen fall to the ground.”

“One of the armed soldiers then approaches the bodies and shoots at one of the soldiers lying on the ground,” according to the report.

Over the winter Russia also released 60 Ukrainian POWs. One of them confirmed to OHCHR that the incident featured in the video took place near Robotyne in December 2023 and that the killed servicemen were from his unit.

In another incident, three Ukrainian POWs, captured by Russian troops, were executed at the beginning of January 2024 in Zaporizhzhia.

“According to a witness, two Ukrainian soldiers were executed on the spot after their surrender. Russian servicemen killed a third Ukrainian POW who had been injured by a mine while being forced by the Russian servicemen to conduct demining work,” the report states.

The released POWs also told the U.N. that Russian forces had tortured them in captivity.

Read the rest here.

Meanwhile, House Republicans continue to block any aid for Ukraine.