Hungarian Strongman Victor Orban Concedes Election

After sixteen years in power, the pro-Kremlin ruler was ousted in parliamentary elections. 

Trump is trying to play dictator with the elections

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order to create a nationwide list of verified eligible voters and to restrict mail-in voting, a move that swiftly drew legal threats from state Democratic officials as the president demands further limitations on voting ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

The order, which voting law experts say violates the Constitution by attempting to seize the power to run elections from states, is the latest in a torrent of efforts from Trump to interfere with the way Americans vote based on his false allegations of fraud.

It calls on the Department of Homeland Security, working in conjunction with the Social Security Administration, to make the list of eligible voters in each state, according to the text of the executive order released Tuesday. It also seeks to bar the U.S. Postal Service from sending absentee ballots to those not on each state’s approved list, although the president likely lacks the power to mandate what the Postal Service does.

Read the rest here.

Draw the Line Now Against a Trump Election Takeover

“Pro-Trump activists who say they are in coordination with the White House are circulating a 17-page draft executive order that claims China interfered in the 2020 election as a basis to declare a national emergency that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting,” reports the Washington Post. The executive order would decree various changes to election law that Trump has been conspicuously unable to convince Congress to enact. These could include a ban on no-excuse mail voting, “requiring voters to register anew for the 2026 midterms with proof of citizenship,” and giving various federal agencies answerable to the president “a role in identifying ineligible voters.”

It won’t work. Measures of this sort, assuming there is no other problem with them, have to be enacted by Congress using its Article I, Section 4, powers. Under our constitutional order, changes to election law cannot be imposed on states by executive whim, whether or not some supposed national-security rationale is proffered. 

Per the Post’s reporting, the draft executive order is being pushed by some eccentric characters who have previously promoted conspiracy theories about the 2020 election that have been uniformly rejected by courts and disproved by impartial investigation. In most administrations, such conspiracry theories wouldn’t get an audience at all; however, Trump is an obvious exception, as one of the nation’s leading promoters of election falsehoods and as one who has hired bitter-end “Stop the Steal” officials to fill key jobs relating to election policy. He has also repeatedly floated the idea of attempting at least a partial election takeover without going through Congress. 

To paraphrase a high official of this administration: We can do this the easy way or the hard way. 

Read the rest here.

How Virginia's top court might decide Democrats' gerrymandering fate

Virginia Democrats are moving forward with plans to gerrymander their way to four more congressional seats — but they need help from the state’s top court.

After a lower court blocked Democrats’ efforts to amend the state Constitution and redraw federal congressional lines ahead of this fall’s midterm elections, the Virginia Court of Appeals requested the Virginia Supreme Court weigh in.

That puts the fate of the map — and potentially congressional control after the 2026 midterms — in the hands of a group of justices that observers say can be hard to predict.

Political and legal experts in Virginia agree the state Supreme Court is not overtly ideological, with many describing it as “small-c conservative,” leaning heavily on tradition and precedent rather than handing down ideologically right-wing rulings. And many observers say the court is wary of wading too heavily into political fights. But this time, it’s unavoidable.

“It’s kind of a state Supreme Court tradition to stay away from political matters whenever they can. They like to leave the legislating to the legislature. So this is going to be a really interesting test of that tradition,” said Carolyn Fiddler of the Democratic Attorneys General Association, who attended William & Mary Law School in Virginia and worked in state politics.

Read the rest here.

Trump Calls on Republicans to "Nationalize" Elections

President Donald Trump said Monday that Republicans should nationalize elections, continuing to double down on false conspiracy theories about widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election.

The suggestion — which runs contrary to the Constitution’s delegation of election administration to state governments — comes less than a week after the FBI raided an elections office outside Atlanta, seizing ballots and other voting records from the 2020 election.

“The Republicans should say, ‘We want to take over. We should take over the voting in at least 15 places.’ The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting,” he said during an appearance on former Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino’s podcast, which he relaunched Monday.

The president repeatedly insisted that he won the 2020 election “in a landslide,” alleging without evidence that people “voted illegally” in the election. He also nodded to the FBI’s raid in Fulton County, Georgia, teasing that “you’re going to see some interesting things come out” in Georgia.

Dozens of challenges to the results of that election yielded no credible evidence of widespread voter fraud, and both a statewide audit and a recount requested by the Trump campaign verified that former President Joe Biden won the state.

Trump has intensified his efforts to undermine the results of the 2020 election in recent months, vowing in January that “people will soon be prosecuted for what they did” with regards to the election. His Justice Department has also sued roughly two dozen states, demanding access to their statewide voter registration rolls.

Trump’s latest threat to nationalize voting harkens back to a promise he made last summer to sign an executive order bringing “honesty” to the 2026 midterm elections.

“Remember, the States are merely an ‘agent’ for the Federal Government in counting and tabulating the votes,” he wrote in an August social media post. “They must do what the Federal Government, as represented by the President of the United States, tells them, FOR THE GOOD OF OUR COUNTRY, to do.”

Read the rest here.

Democrat wins solidly red Texas Senate seat in special election upset

Democrat and machinist union leader Taylor Rehmet won the special election Saturday to represent a solidly red Texas Senate district that President Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024, a stunning upset that injected a fresh and urgent sense of a panic into the GOP from the Texas Capitol to the White House heading into November’s midterm elections. 

With ballots tallied from all but a handful of voting centers, Rehmet had 57% of the vote, besting the 43% for his GOP opponent, conservative activist Leigh Wambsganss, who vastly outspent Rehmet as Republicans including Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick mounted a furious funding push in a bid to tilt the election in their favor in the final days. 

Patrick, the Senate’s powerful presiding officer, had raised alarm bells about the race and urged Republicans to turn out — as did Trump, who posted three separate get-out-the-vote messages on social media in the 48 hours preceding the election.

The win will be short-lived for Rehmet, a first-time candidate who will serve out the roughly 11 months remaining in the term of Republican Kelly Hancock, who vacated the seat to become Texas’ acting comptroller. But the outcome serves as a warning shot for Republicans that will likely embolden Democrats as they angle for other red-leaning seats across Texas — and the country — in November. 

Read the rest here.

The Tennessee Special Election

Today's special election to fill a recently vacated congressional seat in Tennessee has been getting a lot of attention. Normally it would be a non-story given that the district is as Republican as San Francisco is Democratic. President Trump carried it by 22 points. But polls have been showing a shockingly close race. This has gotten Democrats excited and Republicans nervous. All of which said, I doubt the Democrats will pull it off. The polls still show the Republican candidate with a modest lead and those same polls have a history of undercounting conservative voters. There's a lot of debate about the hows and whys of that, but it remains true nonetheless. The latest poll showed around 5% of voters as undecided. In that district they almost always break Republican. And there was a margin of error of ~4%. Democrats are hoping that will break their way, but again, history does not suggest that is too likely. Add to that, the Democratic candidate is not a centrist. She is way to the left by Tennessee political standards and has in the past staked out all kinds of really lefty positions like supporting trans/alphabet people etc., pro-abortion, pro-wealth redistribution and so on. That may play well on the left coast and in New York City, but in Tennessee... I'm not seeing it.

In both parties there is a certain class of professional operators who live and breath politics. When they are eating lunch, they are scanning their phone for the latest stories that could impact broad public opinion. They go to bed at night reciting poll numbers and when they dream it's about which districts will need how much money for the coming off year elections. These people are watching this race not to see who wins, but to see how close it is. The serious people in both parties know that flipping the seat is highly improbable. But what has Democrats giddy and Republicans sweating is how close will it be. If the GOP holds the seat, but the margin is single digits, you are going to see alarm among Republicans and elation among Democrats. It will signal a major threat to swing district Republicans and that money will have to be spent defending at least some districts that would normally be considered safe seats. It would likely add to the steady flow of Republican congress people who have announced their plans not to seek re-election. The party leadership would also have to contend with members feeling more free to criticize the administration. Make no mistake, Donald Trump is on the ballot in this election and the forthcoming off year elections. 

The above aside, what if lightning strikes and the Democrats actually manage to flip the seat? In political terms that would be the equivalent of a tactical nuclear weapon going off in the middle of MAGA country. A district Trump won 13 months ago by 22% in a functionally one party state going Democratic, by even a paper thin margin, might well portend a 2026 election wipe out rivaling those of 1974 and 1994. Democrats will be popping champaign corks from Seattle to South Carolina. For Republicans it would be Katie bar the door. 

Democrats run the board, winning by wide margins

Nov 4 (Reuters) - The 2025 off-year elections in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City and California provided an early barometer of how some U.S. voters view President Donald Trump's second term and the Democratic Party's efforts to revive its political fortunes.

Here are some takeaways from election night:

New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger may have provided a blueprint for how Democrats can get their mojo back in next year’s congressional elections.

They have much in common. Each was first elected to Congress in 2018, during the midterms in Trump's first term. This year, they both ran as problem-solving moderates with backgrounds in national security and laser-focused their campaigns on affordability issues while positioning themselves as bulwarks against Trump.

To a party starved for good news, Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, and Spanberger, an ex-CIA officer, provided it. While their wins were not huge surprises given that their states tend to support Democrats more than Republicans, their broad margins of victory may bolster the argument that their approach could work in next year’s midterms, when Democrats hope to wrest back control of Congress.

With votes still being counted, Sherrill appeared to have bested her opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, by a greater margin in New Jersey than Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris beat Trump there last year. There were also signs that Spanberger was outperforming Harris in Virginia.

Sherrill and Spanberger, along with New York mayoral winner Zohran Mamdani, promoted affordability as a central campaign theme.

Spanberger’s “Affordable Virginia” plan focused on lowering healthcare, housing and energy costs, and she vowed to make tech data centers pay “their fair share” of electricity costs. Sherrill’s “Affordability Agenda” targeted similar concerns. She pledged to declare a statewide energy emergency and freeze electricity rates.

Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist, said that while it’s always tricky to determine how off-year election results might play in the next year’s midterms, Democrats can take some lessons away from Tuesday.

“If Trump keeps taking a sledgehammer to people’s pocketbooks, that is an easy thing for Democrats to run on,” Payne said.

Read the rest here.

The New York City Mayoral Race

It's all but over. Now comes the fun part. A socialist mayor in charge of the beating heart of global capitalism, in a country with a far right authoritarian president who is almost certain to suggest Manhattan as the first site for his planned revival of nuclear weapons testing.

Argentina: Libertarians score decisive legislative election win

BUENOS AIRES — Argentines woke up to a politically emboldened President Javier Milei after a dramatic victory in midterm elections on Sunday.

The libertarian president and staunch Donald Trump ally secured more than 40% of the popular vote, and solidified his hold on power in the National Congress, where he had previously struggled to push parts of his agenda through.

The scope of the victory surprised even Milei. His La Libertad Avanza party earned roughly 9 points more than the left-leaning Peronist opposition, and also eked out a victory in the powerful province of Buenos Aires, where Peronists usually dominate. Just over one month ago, the president's party had lost badly in legislative elections in the province of Buenos Aires.

But the story Sunday was very different, and sent a clear message following two years of austerity measures that drastically cut public spending, and helped drive down chronically high inflation. Corruption scandals, and a wild few weeks of economic instability did not dampen the support that he maintains among a sizable part of the population.

The value of the Argentine peso also strengthened considerably on Monday, a show of confidence from the markets after Milei's victory.

Read the rest here.

The gerrymandering wars is a flashing warning light for US democracy

After the extraordinary scene of Texas Democrats fleeing their state to forestall a rare mid-decade gerrymander, Texas Republicans nevertheless moved this week to approve a new congressional map. It is designed to give their party five additional seats in Congress in next year’s midterm elections, as requested by President Trump. 

California Democrats responded this week by rushing to advance their own plan to draw a new congressional map to counter Texas Republicans. Red and Blue states across the country are now predictably threatening to join this bare-knuckle political brawl. 

Although partisan gerrymandering has sadly become a routine practice pushing us further into tribalism and dysfunction, the current crisis should be seen for what it is: a flashing red warning light for our democracy. 

Indeed, if this race to the bottom continues, every aspect of our democratic system of governance could be captured by extreme partisanship, and every last vestige of trust necessary for that system to work could soon be lost. At that point, it may well be too late to change course. 

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) has proposed the best way out of the current standoff: a federal bipartisan embrace of independent commissions to draw electoral maps so that voters can choose their politicians rather than self-interested politicians cynically rigging the system to their partisan advantage.

That would solve the immediate crisis, but we must also confront the larger issue of extremism dominating our politics.

The truth is our democratic system has been completely hijacked to yield outsized power to the partisan fringes. These voters on the far left and right of the political mainstream view politics as an existential tribal struggle that must be won at all costs, and they thus demand that their elected officials engage in tribal warfare and scorched-earth politics. 

Read the rest here.

The New York Mayoral Election

Ok, we have five guys running. One of the contenders Jim Walden, has no chance of winning, but could collect maybe five percentage points worth of votes. Mamdani has a lock on the progressive vote, but it's unclear what percentage that will translate to in the general election. Then you have Cuomo and Adams, both of whom have tarnished reputations but who are likely to split the bulk of the moderate Democratic vote. And tempting as it might be to overlook them, around 1 in 5 New Yorkers are actually registered Republicans. Their candidate, Curtis Sliwa, actually got ~27% of the vote in the 2021 election. 

Right now, I don't see Cuomo or Adams winning. The former is deeply unpopular and seen as just plain creepy. Adams is tainted by credible allegations of corruption. My guess is that it will come down to how many New Yorkers are prepared to roll the dice on an avowed socialist as mayor of a city that is also the beating heart of global capitalism. And we also need to consider the Jewish vote, which typically breaks heavily Democratic. I just can't see Mamdani carrying anywhere near a majority of the Jewish vote with his pro-Palestine record. In a normal election I'd say Curtis Sliwa's odds of being elected mayor of New York City were slightly worse than winning the Powerball. But in a five way race, if he holds that 27%, he's got an outside shot. In last year's election Donald Trump actually got 30% of the vote in New York City. If Sliwa gets the Trump voters, he goes from long shot to credible candidate. If he can pick up another 5-10% from disaffected Democrats and independents, we could... maybe... just possibly see one of the biggest election upsets in the city's history. 

How Biden’s Inner Circle Protected a Faltering President

The people closest to President Biden were well aware that he had changed. He talked more slowly than he had just a few years before, needed to hoist himself out of his seat in the presidential limousine and walked with a halting gait.

“Your biggest issue is the perception of age,” Mike Donilon, the president’s longtime strategist, told him in mid-2022, according to three close aides who heard it. That bit of feedback, delivered repeatedly by Mr. Donilon, was the sort of blunt talk that did not often make its way to a man who had spent a half-century in politics prizing loyalty and deference.

Mr. Biden acknowledged the concerns, but the warnings only ignited his defiant, competitive streak. In April 2023, without convening his family or having long deliberations with aides, he announced he was running again.

Now, as President-elect Donald J. Trump heads back to the White House, demoralized Democrats debate what might have been had the president bowed out in time to let a younger generation run. Mr. Biden, 82, has at the same time made the extraordinary admission that he might not have made it through a second term. “Who knows what I’m going to be when I’m 86 years old?” he said in an interview with USA Today on Jan. 5.

The president’s acknowledgment has put a new spotlight on his family and inner circle, all of whom dismissed concerns from voters and Mr. Biden’s own party that he was too old for the job. And yet they recognized his physical frailty to a greater degree than they have publicly acknowledged. Then they cooperated, according to interviews with more than two dozen aides, allies, lawmakers and donors, to manage his decline.

They rearranged meetings to make sure Mr. Biden was in a better mood — a strategy one person close to him described as how aides should handle any president. At times, they delayed sharing information with him, including negative polling data, as they debated the best way to frame it. They surrounded him with aides when he walked from the White House to the waiting presidential helicopter on the South Lawn so that news cameras could not capture his awkward bearing.

Read the rest here.

The Paths to 270 for Trump & Harris

A good examination of how each side could win in 19 maps. 

(Spoiler: The math and the maps favor Trump, but not by a huge margin.)

A few quick observations. 

* The undecided vote is still(!) believed to be around 4-6%. How they break could be decisive. 

* Disaffected voters could swing the election either way. But the risk is greater for Harris given the extreme rancor in the political left over Israel and Gaza. There are also a lot of Muslim Americans in Michigan. Right now, I'd say that Jill Stein is a dagger pointed at the heart of the Harris campaign. 

* The most likely path for a Harris victory (MI, WI and PA), especially if she wins them by very slim margins, could see her elected while losing the popular vote nationally. That would be flipping the usual script as Republicans generally believe the Electoral College gives them an edge in elections. It's how Trump won in 2016. But if this happens for Harris, expect MAGA world to erupt.

Why the Right Thinks Trump Is Running Away With the Race

The torrent of polls began arriving just a few weeks ago, one after the other, most showing a victory for Donald J. Trump.

They stood out amid the hundreds of others indicating a dead heat in the presidential election. But they had something in common: They were commissioned by right-leaning groups with a vested interest in promoting Republican strength.

These surveys have had marginal, if any, impact on polling averages, which either do not include the partisan polls or give them little weight. Yet some argue that the real purpose of partisan polls, along with other expectation-setting metrics such as political betting markets, is directed at a different goal entirely: building a narrative of unstoppable momentum for Mr. Trump.

The partisan polls appear focused on lifting Republican enthusiasm before the election and — perhaps more important — cementing the idea that the only way Mr. Trump can lose to Vice President Kamala Harris is if the election is rigged. Polls promising a Republican victory, the theory runs, could be held up as evidence of cheating if that victory does not come to pass.

“Republicans are clearly strategically putting polling into the information environment to try to create perceptions that Trump is stronger,” said Joshua Dyck, who directs the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. “Their incentive is not necessarily to get the answer right.”

Last week, the right-wing influencer Ian Miles Cheong shared a survey with his 1.1 million followers on X. The forecast from a new polling company suggested, without sharing its methodology, that the former president would take 74.3 percent of the national vote — a landslide unprecedented in American history.

“Trump is absolutely going to win,” Mr. Cheong wrote. “The data shows it.”

Read the rest here.

Election Lies: Trump is preparing to deny another loss

Former President Donald Trump has escalated his long-running assault on the integrity of US elections as the 2024 presidential campaign enters its final stretch, using a new series of lies about ballots, vote-counting and the election process to lay the groundwork to challenge a potential defeat in November.

Nonpartisan democracy experts say they’re seeing many of the same warning signs that were blinking red before Election Day four years ago, when Trump flooded the zone with election lies and conspiracy theories that he amplified after losing to Joe Biden. His campaign of deception culminated in the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

“The threats have not abated; they have only increased,” said Lindsay Daniels, a senior director at the nonpartisan Democracy Fund, which works to strengthen US democracy. “We saw a lot of activity in 2020 around peddling false claims and frivolous lawsuits. We are already seeing signs now, stage-setting, that these things may be attempted again.”

Trump has made at least 12 distinct false claims over the last two months that raise baseless doubts about the validity of a potential victory by Vice President Kamala Harris. (Recent polls suggest the race is very close, and Trump could certainly still win.)

Trump, who wrongly insists the 2020 election was marred by massive fraud, said at a debate in June that he will accept the 2024 results regardless of who wins “if it’s a fair and legal and good election.” A majority of Trump supporters in battleground states like Michigan, Arizona, and Pennsylvania now say they’re “not at all confident” or only “just a little” confident the results will be accurately tallied, according to recent CNN polling.

Trump has lied about the legitimacy of the vote counts in key states, the reliability of mail-in and overseas ballots, the size of Harris’ crowds at rallies, and more. Here’s a fact check of these and other claims.

Read the rest here.

Some really bad numbers for Biden

There has been much talk lately about Biden's sinking poll numbers since the debate. Generally speaking, Democrats seem to already be conceding they are likely to lose the election with Biden at the top of the ticket. Republicans are publicly very confident. Privately, some are predicting a near landslide in electoral votes and have quietly begun vying for cabinet posts in the next administration. The recent attempt on Mr. Trump's life seems likely to add fuel to Trump's post-debate surge (or perhaps more accurately, Biden's collapse). 

Perusing the various statistics out there, I started looking at the states everybody is ignoring because they are never in play. (You would be correct; I have no life) And what I found in one really jarred me. 

Some states are so obvious that they don't generate a lot of polling. One of them is New York. The Empire State has not voted Republican since 1984, the year I cast my first vote for Ronald Reagan. Democrats in New York enjoy a roughly 2:1 advantage in voter registration over Republicans, who represent less than 30% of registered voters overall. To give you some perspective, Republicans have a slightly higher percentage of voters in California. New York is the definition of a one-party state with every branch of government and all statewide elected offices controlled by Democrats. 

As of this post, the last two state specific polls conducted in New York were done back in May and June, before Biden's debate meltdown. Those polls gave Biden a lead of 7 and 8% respectively. That averages out to 7.5%.

That is nuts.

In any state other than New York, that would be close enough to move the state from "safe Democrat," to "leans Democrat." But this is still New York, and no, it is not in play. There are enough people in that state who would vote for a cadaver in advanced state of decomposition over Donald Trump to keep it firmly in the Democratic column. 

But Biden should be polling a solid double digit lead there. The fact that even before the debate, his lead was only in the single digits in a state as blue as New York should be a flashing red alert for Democrats (and anti-Trumpers of every persuasion). To my mind, this is a very clear signal that Democrats may be heading for an election wipe out. 

UK General Election (seeing red)

There is an old saying in politics, that each election is different. Some years you are the windshield, and in others you're the bug. (Unless you're Donald Trump, in which case you never lose.)

Early reports from the UK where the polls have now closed, suggest that Labour is on track for a record majority while the Conservatives appear to have suffered their worst defeat in modern political history. Labour's massive win and the corresponding collapse of the Tories, appears to be at least in part due to the infighting on the right. Specifically, the rise of the new Reform Party and its rightwing populist leader Nigel Farage. Exit polls suggest that Reform, on track to win perhaps 13 seats, actually got a larger share of the popular vote than the Liberal Democrats, on track to win around 60 seats. That means that they are almost certainly responsible for a very large number of normally safe Conservative seats swinging to Labour. 

The other news, some might call it a silver lining in a very dark cloud, is that it looks like the SNP, Scotland's leftwing secessionist party, has been absolutely pasted.  The numbers are not firm as of this post, but exit polling suggests they are on track to lose around 80% of their seats in Westminster. In all cases the beneficiary being Labour. It should be noted that Scotland has a devolved parliament, and the SNP still controls the government there with the next Scottish election not scheduled for another two years. 

The New York Times calls on Biden to end his bid for re-election

To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Race