Russia sabotages weapons factories across Europe

Russia has launched a fresh wave of attacks on European armaments factories under the guise of plausible deniability, according to Western intelligence sources.

The Kremlin is recruiting local gang members to sabotage defence manufacturers to test Nato’s resolve.

The attacks appear carefully calculated to fall just short of triggering Article 5, Nato’s mutual defence clause, intelligence officials believe.

Read the rest here.

Report: US has largely exhausted its stockpile of long range missiles in Iran War

Washington — The U.S. has used nearly all of its global stockpile of long-range precision missiles during the war with Iran, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter tell CBS News.

Specifically, the U.S. has used virtually all of its Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, and Precision Strike Missiles, the sources said. Reuters was first to report that the U.S. had used "virtually all" of its long-range precision missiles during Operation Epic Fury. 

CBS News has previously reported that the U.S. has dwindling stockpiles of defensive interceptors and long-range missiles, which has become a pressure point within the administration, and that the U.S. cannot sustain the rate at which it expended precision munitions early in the war with Iran. 

U.S. officials said there are limited inventories of the ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles, and that the most pressing concern involves the number of Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, which have been used faster than the industry can replace them. 

Read the rest here.

Defense decoupling is no longer just a European fear — it’s Trump’s policy

When news broke that the Pentagon wouldn’t sell long-range Tomahawk missiles to Germany, it suggested Washington might fear Moscow would view such a capability in Europe’s hands as dangerous escalation.

The move came on the heels of similar signs of U.S. disengagement that had been going on for weeks, including the decision to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany, halt the planned deployment of a U.S. battalion equipped with Tomahawk missiles, and make severe reductions in planned U.S. contributions of bombers, fighters, destroyers, submarines and other forces needed to bolster NATO defenses in a crisis or attack.

The Pentagon claims these steps are necessary to rebalance European and U.S. contributions to the continent’s defense, but the decision to halt the Tomahawk sale points to a far more disquieting reality: Not only is Washington no longer deploying deep precision strike systems to Europe, it’s also denying its European allies the capacity to arm themselves with these systems out of fear of Russia’s reaction.

In other words, the U.S. is now actively looking to decouple its security from Europe’s.

Read the rest here.

Pentagon officials stunned by Hegseth decision on troops in Poland

Pete Hegseth’s last-minute decision to cancel the deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland caught Pentagon staff and European allies by surprise — the latest example of an abrupt personnel move from the Defense secretary that blindsided both sides of the Atlantic.

It wasn’t clear exactly why Hegseth issued the order, according to three defense officials familiar with the matter. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed anger and frustration with European allies for their failure to help with the Iran war, although Trump has labeled Poland a “model ally” for its high defense spending.

The decision was even more surprising because troops and equipment had already started to arrive in the country. It sent fresh waves of anxiety through European capitals and inside the Pentagon on Thursday about whether such moves could embolden Russia — and which ally might turn into the next target.

“We had no idea this was coming,” said one of the U.S. officials, adding that European and American officials have spent the last 24 hours on the phone trying to understand the decision and figure out if more surprises are coming.

The move follows Hegseth’s announcement this month that the Pentagon would withdraw 5,000 troops from bases in Germany. But that decision followed through on a threat Trump made after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the U.S. was “humiliating” itself with the conflict in Iran.

The 4,000 Texas-based troops were preparing to leave on a long-planned nine month rotation to Poland that includes training with NATO allies when the order to halt came through. The cancellation of this routine mission is especially unusual given that American troops stationed on the continent are a key deterrent to Russia. Trump has insisted that Europe will have to fend for itself — even as he’s railed against allies’ opposition to the Iran conflict — and this latest order suggests the president is serious about reducing the American footprint on the continent.

The Army’s role in Europe “is all about deterring the Russians, protecting America’s strategic interests and assuring allies,” said the Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. “And now a very important asset that was coming to be part of that deterrence is gone.”

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Trump's War is Dangerously Depleting US Military Weapons and Ordinance

Since the Iran war began in late February, the United States has burned through around 1,100 of its long-range stealth cruise missiles built for a war with China, close to the total number remaining in the U.S. stockpile. The military has fired off more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, roughly 10 times the number it currently buys each year.

The Pentagon used more than 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles in the war, at more than $4 million a pop, and more than 1,000 Precision Strike and ATACMS ground-based missiles, leaving inventories worrisomely low, according to internal Defense Department estimates and congressional officials.

The Iran war has significantly drained much of the U.S. military’s global supply of munitions, and forced the Pentagon to rush bombs, missiles and other hardware to the Middle East from commands in Asia and Europe. The drawdowns have left these regional commands less ready to confront potential adversaries like Russia and China, and it has forced the United States to find ways to scale up production to address the depletions, Trump administration and congressional officials say.

The conflict has also underscored the Pentagon’s overreliance on excessively expensive missiles and munitions, especially air-defense interceptors, as well as concerns about whether the defense industry can develop cheaper arms, especially attack drones, far more quickly.

Read the rest here.

The Shocking State of Britain's Navy 2026

Two from CATO

5 Reasons the US Should Not Spend Another Penny on the War with Iran

FCC Threats and the Fog of War: The Government Cannot Be the Arbiter of Truth

Army chief says Switzerland can't defend itself from full-scale attack

ZURICH, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Switzerland cannot defend itself against a full-scale attack and must boost military spending given rising risks from Russia, the head of its armed forces said.

The country is prepared for attacks by "non-state actors" on critical infrastructure and for cyber attacks, but its military still faces major equipment gaps, Thomas Suessli told the NZZ newspaper.

"What we cannot do is defend against threats from a distance or even a full-scale attack on our country," said Suessli, who is stepping down at the end of the year.

"It's burdensome to know that in a real emergency, only a third of all soldiers would be fully equipped," he said in an interview published on Saturday.

Switzerland is increasing defence spending, modernising artillery and ground systems and replacing ageing fighter jets with Lockheed Martin F-35As.

But the plan faces cost overruns, while critics question spending on artillery and munitions amid tight federal finances.

Suessli said attitudes towards the military had not shifted despite the war in Ukraine and Russian efforts to destabilise Europe.

He blamed Switzerland's distance from the conflict, its lack of recent war experience and the false belief that neutrality offered protection.

Read the rest here.

Military Folly: The Trump Class "Battleships"

Trump Announces New Class of Battleships Despite Century of Evidence Proving the Large Warships Are Obsolete

The ‘Trump-class’ battleship faces a large obstacle in its way: Reality

NY Times: US Military Superiority is Declining Dangerously

President Xi Jinping of China has ordered his armed forces to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027. Though the United States maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity on how it would respond to an invasion, Republican and Democratic presidents alike have said that America would defend the island nation. The Pentagon has produced a classified, multiyear assessment that shows how such a conflict would play out: the Overmatch brief.

The report is a comprehensive review of U.S. military power prepared by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment and delivered most recently to top White House officials in the last year. It catalogs China’s ability to destroy American fighter planes, large ships and satellites, and identifies the U.S. military’s supply chain choke points. Its details have not been previously reported.

The picture it paints is consistent and disturbing. Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, said last November that in the Pentagon’s war games against China, “we lose every time.” When a senior Biden national security official received the Overmatch brief in 2021, he turned pale as he realized that “every trick we had up our sleeve, the Chinese had redundancy after redundancy,” according to one official who was present.

The assessment shows something more worrying than the potential outcome of a war over Taiwan. It shows the Pentagon’s overreliance on expensive, vulnerable weapons as adversaries field cheap, technologically advanced ones. And it traces a decades-long decline in America’s ability to win a long war with a major power.

War games can be wrong; analysts sometimes overstate adversaries’ abilities. Yet this larger point should not be ignored. Nearly four decades after victory in the Cold War, the U.S. military is ill prepared for today’s global threats and revolutionary technologies.

Read the rest here.

You know you are in trouble when even the NY Times is sounding the alarm over national defense.

Britain's Defense Buildup: Lots of talk but not so much money

LONDON — Keir Starmer tore up the script this year to pledge a massive British defense spending hike. So why is the country's military still preparing to make cuts?

Just ahead of his crucial first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in February, the U.K. prime minister announced his government would spend 2.5 percent of GDP on defense by 2027 — and hit 3 percent in the next parliament.

In June he went further — joining NATO allies in promising a move to 3.5 percent by 2035. Britain’s bold direction of travel was warmly welcomed by NATO members, including the U.S., which has sent a clear message under Trump that Europe must become more self-sufficient on security.

Yet inside Whitehall, anxiety is rising about how the U.K. will match lofty rhetoric with reality — and military chiefs are already locked in a fight with the all-powerful Treasury to get cash in the here and now.

The recent government-wide budget delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves contained nothing new for national security, while the Ministry of Defence is currently locked in a fraught battle with the Treasury over a landmark investment plan.

One U.K. defense official, not authorized to speak publicly, said: “Our position is becoming untenable. You can’t talk about leadership in Europe when we haven’t put our budget up at all.”

Read the res here.

China's navy is the world's largest and expanding at breakneck speed

...Suoyuwan park in Dalian, which juts out of north-eastern China into the Yellow Sea, has stunning views of one of China's largest shipyards, and is a place to gather and be merry.

But to White House analysts thousands of miles away in Washington, this cradle of Chinese shipbuilding is part of a growing threat.

In the last two decades, China has ramped up investment in shipbuilding. And that has paid off: more than 60% of the world's orders this year have gone to Chinese shipyards. Put simply, China is building more ships than any other country because it can do it faster than anyone else.

"The scale is extraordinary… in many ways eye-watering," says Nick Childs, a maritime expert with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The Chinese shipbuilding capacity is something like 200 times overall that of the United States."

That commanding lead also applies to its navy. The Chinese Communist Party now has the world's largest, operating 234 warships compared to the US Navy's 219.

China's explosive rise has been fuelled by the sea. The world's second-largest economy is home to seven of the world's 10 busiest ports, which are critical to global supply routes. And its coastal cities are thriving because of trade.

As Beijing's ambitions have grown, so has its arsenal of ships - and its confidence to stake a louder claim in the South China Sea and beyond.

President Xi Jinping's China certainly wants to rule the waves. Whether it will is the question.

Read the rest here.

Largely overlooked in this otherwise good story is the fact that China's navy is concentrated in the Western Pacific. The US Navy is spread all over the world. 

Germany is rearming, with potentially huge implications

...Across Germany, both politicians and members of the public have been going through a similar transformation. The country’s army, officially named the Bundeswehr — which translates as “federal defense” — was established by the United States during the Cold War. It was designed to support NATO rather than ever lead a conflict, for fear that a German military could be misused as it was during World War II. This supporting role suited Germany’s leaders: Throughout the latter half of the 20th century, the country’s politicians carefully shaped an image of a peaceful nation that prefers influencing global politics through trade and diplomacy. After the end of the Cold War the Bundeswehr began scaling down, with military spending falling from a high of 4.9 percent of GDP in 1963 to just 1.1 percent in 2005.

But in the months following the Russian invasion, then-chancellor Olaf Scholz surprised the world by announcing a radical change in German foreign policy, including a €100 billion ($116 billion) plan to beef up its army. Then in early 2025, five days after the February election of new chancellor Friedrich Merz of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), Donald Trump invited Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky into the Oval Office for a browbeating broadcast around the world that signaled his lack of interest in standing up to Russia. A shocked Merz, who had campaigned on a platform of low taxes and low spending, immediately agreed with Scholz to work together to reform the country’s strict borrowing laws — which were embedded in the constitution — and build up its defense capabilities as quickly as possible with a €1 trillion loan, which amounts to about 25 percent of the country’s GDP. According to Lorenzo Scarazzato, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), this type of defense spending was previously unheard of during peacetime. “Countries that spend this much are usually those at war, or autocratic states that don’t have democratic oversight,” he said.

The following month, Germany’s lawmakers voted to back the plan, setting the country’s military on track to be the best-funded in Europe and the fourth-biggest in the world. In Merz’s view, Europe didn’t just need to arm itself against Russian aggression, but also “achieve independence from the USA.” Later in the year, NATO members would agree to raise their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, at Trump’s behest.

Read the rest here.

This is a longish read, but very good.

Europe must assert hard power or become a ‘hunted animal,’ France’s top general warns

PARIS — Europe's disunited governments are in denial about the extent to which violence is shaping global politics and must step up to assert their combined force as a hard power, the chief of defense staff of the French military has warned in a sweeping interview.

"A weakened Europe may find itself tomorrow as a hunted animal, after two centuries of the West setting the tone,” General Thierry Burkhard said in unusually outspoken remarks to POLITICO and French newspaper Libération.  "It's not only about armed forces, but about the fact that hard power dynamics now prevail."

Burkhard warned that Europe's fragmented countries would have to bind together more tightly as a strategic force to counteract the "spheres of influence" being built by China, Russia and the U.S.

"On the one hand, European countries have never been so strong. On the other, there is a form of denial from governments and populations in the face of the level of violence in the world today," he added.

The French general's reality check echoes a growing number of warnings about Europe's weakness.

Former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi also stressed last week the EU had to stop pretending it could exercise global influence just as an economic force and consumer market. He insisted the bloc had received a "very brutal wake-up call" from Donald Trump that it needed to think in far more strategic terms about security and defense spending.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Wednesday accused the European Union of sliding into irrelevance on the world stage. "We must be willing to pay the price of our freedom and our independence,” she said.

Read the rest here.

Germany May Revive the Draft

BERLIN — Germany may need to turn to compulsory measures to get more soldiers into the ranks of its depleted military, say senior lawmakers from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservatives.

The government is drafting legislation to revitalize a shrinking Bundeswehr, but so far efforts to recruit more troops have relied on voluntary measures. Now, senior conservative lawmakers are warning that may have to be backed up by a return to the draft.

“If it turns out that the significant personnel needs for a Bundeswehr capable of defense and deterrence, especially in light of the new NATO plans, cannot be met through a purely voluntary model, compulsory elements will have to be introduced,” said Thomas Erndl, who represents the Christian Democrats on the parliamentary defense committee. 

Read the rest here.

Various...

‘Amateur hour’: Washington aghast at Trump administration’s war plan group chat

America’s rich scramble to open Swiss bank accounts over Trump fears

Trump says countries that purchase oil from Venezuela will pay 25% tariff on any trade with U.S.

Americans Are Buying an Escape Plan

That Portrait (I'm  not seeing the big deal. I saw it and it looks pretty good to me.)

US could default on debt as soon as July

Erdoğan seizes geopolitical moment to snuff out democratic opposition

Tesla Sales in Europe Crater

More Admirals than Ships?

Bret Stephens- D.E.I. Will Not Be Missed

In December 2015 the Obama administration decided to allow women to serve in all combat roles. “There will be no exceptions,” Ashton Carter, then the secretary of defense, announced. Women would be accepted as “Army Rangers and Green Berets, Navy SEALs, Marine Corps infantry,” among other demanding roles previously open only to men.

As for physical standards, those would not change: “There must be no quotas or perception thereof,” Carter said.

In some ways, the policy has produced inspiring results. More than 140 women have completed the Army’s elite Ranger School, and a few have passed the Marines’ Infantry Officer Course (though none, as yet, have become SEALs). Women serve with distinction in other combat roles, including as fighter pilots and tank commanders.

In other ways, however, the policy has realized the worst fears of its early critics. Though it has elevated women who meet the same physical standards as their male counterparts, it has also led to an erosion of standards. From the initial laudable goal — equality of opportunity for all, regardless of gender — the military has been sliding toward something else: equality in outcomes. That is what today is usually meant by the word “equity,” at least in the context of diversity, equity and inclusion, or D.E.I.

Take the Army’s efforts to create gender-neutral fitness requirements, known as the Army Combat Fitness Test. The test, developed over a decade, was designed to be rigorous, requiring soldiers of either sex to meet physical standards appropriate to the roles they might perform — with the toughest requirements for jobs like artillery soldiers, which require a lot of muscle.

But that caused a problem: Women were failing the test at noticeably higher rates, according to a RAND study. Among active-duty enlisted soldiers, the fitness test had a pass rate of 92 percent among men but only 52 percent among women. (Female officers did better, with a pass rate of 72 percent.) Democratic senators, including New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand, were also putting pressure on the Army to delay implementation of the test, arguing, as The Washington Post reported in 2020, that it “could undermine the goal of creating a diverse force.”

The Biden administration yielded to this complaint.

Read the rest here.

Russia and China Are Sabotaging Undersea Power and Communication Cables

Russia’s connection to the rupture of an undersea cable between Finland and Estonia is raising a new bevy of fears over the sabotage of critical power lines.

The new incidents come as tensions between the West and Russia and China have risen over the war in Ukraine, and as the world braces for a shift in U.S. leadership as President-elect Trump prepares to take office. 

The Estlink-2 power cable between Finland and Estonia was allegedly cut on Christmas by a Cook Island-flagged ship called Eagle S. Western officials claim the ship is part of a vast Russian shadow fleet working to circumvent western sanctions. 

The incident adds to a larger problem related to the security of undersea infrastructure, as China has also been accused of three incidents since 2023 that have disrupted power lines in European waters.

Dozens of cables are ruptured each year, usually accidentally, and it’s unclear if the latest events were intentional. Still, European leaders are sounding the alarm. 

“Recent Baltic Sea sabotage attempts are not isolated incidents; they form a deliberate pattern aimed at damaging our digital and energy infrastructure,” said European Union foreign policy head Kaja Kallas in an interview with German newspaper Welt.

Read the rest here.

Our Next Secretary of Defense

Here's Donald Trump's new defense secretary, Fox News' Pete Hegseth, hawking grenade soap so you can join the "well-groomed militia."

JFC.

Are all these people total grifters? pic.twitter.com/PyKHOn0SCu

— Art Candee 🍿🥤 (@ArtCandee) November 13, 2024

Words fail.