Monday, May 20, 2013

Japan’s New Optimism Has a Name: Abenomics

TOKYO — After years of grinding malaise, Japan suddenly has some of its bling back.

A humbled Sony — once a titan of Japan Inc. — recently sprang back into the black for the first year in five years, courtesy of a plunging yen. Honda, another corporate icon, triumphantly announced a return to Formula One racing, rejoining an exclusive club of high-performance carmakers after having slinked away when cash ran low.

Even some of Japan’s wary consumers are beginning to indulge. At the plush Takashimaya department store in Tokyo’s financial district, a clerk reported that $20,000 watches had become hot sellers. And a cut-rate sushi chain, which flourished in difficult times, just started a line of upscale restaurants for customers newly able to afford “petite extravagances.”

The reason for the exuberance? Early — and some say deceptive — signs that new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic shock therapy, called Abenomics, might just be working.

His plan, one of the world’s most audacious experiments in economic policy in recent memory, combines a flood of cheap cash (doubling the money supply in two years), traditional fiscal stimulus and deregulation of Japan’s notoriously ingrown corporate culture. The hope is that this will yank Japan from a debilitating deflationary spiral of lower prices and diminished expectations, stirring what Keynes called the “animal spirits” of investors and consumers.
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3 comments:

Npinkpanther said...

Sounds like a recipe for runaway inflation, debt and an artificial credit bubble to me.

John (Ad Orientem) said...

Maybe. That would certainly be the standard Austrian expectation. But Japan has been suffering from a brutal deflationary depression for 20 years. Their stock market lost 75% of its value. Tight monetary policy and fiscal austerity sound like the Herbert Hoover plan to me.

Npinkpanther said...

Immediate economic growth is not always a good indicator of an economy's long term health, but I guess we shall just have to wait and see how this pans out.