Thursday, March 26, 2020

The Stock Market Bounces (and a personal note)

So the stock market just had it's best three day run since 1931. Yep, that's impressive. And I honestly hope that this is the first sign of confidence in a general economic recovery. But something worth remembering is that the early 30's on Wall Street became infamous for bear market rallies. These wild upward ticks, also known as suckers rallies or a dead cat bounce, never fully recouped the earlier losses and always preceded another sharp sell off. 

With a veritable wave of ugly news still waiting in the wings, I have no confidence in this stock market. And now that the government is printing money like it is water and monetizing the bond market, the only asset I'm nibbling in right now, is gold.

To be clear, I'm not making any predictions here. All I'm saying is that these are dangerous times economically and it does not feel like we are near the end. My gut says things may be just warming up. So if you have a well diversified portfolio (stocks indexed, bonds, a solid cash reserve and maybe some gold) I'd just sit tight and wait things out. Nine times out of ten, selling into a financial panic just locks in losses. But I'd definitely not be making speculative investments right now unless it was with money I could afford to lose.

[On a personal note; thank you to those who have inquired about my health. My symptoms have, thank God, been very mild. A persistent dry cough that turned into the achy blahs with on again off again low grade fevers. A little shortness of breath and the urge to lie down every time I did anything even remotely active. This has lasted for around three weeks now and I am sorry to say when it first started I didn't even realize my cough could be more than a reaction to my dogs shedding. Happily the symptoms have been fading lately to the point where I mostly feel fine now. I hope to be able to begin the seven day countdown either tomorrow or Saturday where if no symptoms return I can bust out of this joint. Options of places to go are pretty limited right now but even just a trip to the gas station would be a relief. Stay safe everybody.]


unreconstructed rebel said...

Glad to hear that you are recovering. May I know your age? I am 75, but in very good health, so am not overly worried about it.

Archimandrite Gregory said...

May Our Lady Theotokos and ever Virgin Mary enfold you in her holy mantle of love and protection.