Memory Eternal!

Mom died tonight. It was unexpected though I was able to say goodbye. She was the last member of the family from that generation. Those who have been through this will know the awful grief. Prayers are deeply appreciated.

In a blessed falling asleep, grant, O Lord, eternal rest unto Thy departed servant Geraldine and make her memory to be eternal!

Memory eternal! Memory eternal! Memory eternal!

Making Polio Great Again

Ok. It's time to call a shovel a shovel. Anti-Vax pseudo-scientific nuttery has now gone mainstream in the Republican Party. RFK Jr. is turning the Department of Health and Human Services into an agency dedicated to all out warfare on modern medicine. Florida's Surgeon General wants to end ALL vaccine mandates for kids. Yes, even Polio! If this quack had been in charge a couple of generations ago, we would still have Smallpox in the world. If you don't know what that is, firstly you are very fortunate, and secondly it's because we eradicated it by mass vaccinations. In the 19th century one in four children did not live to adulthood. Vaccines are one of the most important reasons we have reduced infant mortality rates in the developed world to less than 1%. The most dangerous people are always well meaning fools with power. And these kooks are going to get people killed. 

Ray Dalio Warns of Debt, Wealth Inequality and America's Drift Towards Authoritarianism

One of the world’s most prominent hedge fund billionaires has warned that rising inequality is turning the US into an autocratic state and condemned business leaders for failing to speak out against Donald Trump’s policies.

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, said “gaps in wealth” and a collapse in trust were driving “more extreme” policies in the US.

Speaking to the Financial Times, the veteran financier said many western countries were affected by growing inequality, leading voters to turn increasingly to autocratic leaders.

“I think that what is happening now politically and socially is analogous to what happened around the world in the 1930-40 period,” he said.

“Classically, increased wealth and value gaps lead to increased populism of the right and populism of the left and irreconcilable differences between them that can’t be resolved through the democratic process.

“So democracies weaken and more autocratic leadership increases as a large percentage of the population wants government leaders to get control of the system to make things work well for them.”

Concerns about a significant rise in borrowing by the US government were well founded, said Dalio, who has long predicted a reckoning for economies that allow debts to rise.

In his books, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke: the Big Cycle, he has described how large annual spending deficits and unsustainable debt growth had brought the US economy to the brink of a debt crisis – a situation that had worsened over many years.

“The great excesses that are now projected as a result of the new budget will likely cause a debt-induced heart attack in the relatively near future,” he said. “I’d say three years, give or take a year or two.”

Read the rest here.

Unfortunately, the original interview is behind a paywall. But it is getting a lot of attention in the broader press.

Gold Posts New Record

Gold currently trading at ~$3,566 /oz amidst expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates (whether by choice or under presidential coercion), and the risks of a weaker dollar and higher inflation. 

Update: Gold closed at $3,599 /oz. 

China's navy is the world's largest and expanding at breakneck speed

...Suoyuwan park in Dalian, which juts out of north-eastern China into the Yellow Sea, has stunning views of one of China's largest shipyards, and is a place to gather and be merry.

But to White House analysts thousands of miles away in Washington, this cradle of Chinese shipbuilding is part of a growing threat.

In the last two decades, China has ramped up investment in shipbuilding. And that has paid off: more than 60% of the world's orders this year have gone to Chinese shipyards. Put simply, China is building more ships than any other country because it can do it faster than anyone else.

"The scale is extraordinary… in many ways eye-watering," says Nick Childs, a maritime expert with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The Chinese shipbuilding capacity is something like 200 times overall that of the United States."

That commanding lead also applies to its navy. The Chinese Communist Party now has the world's largest, operating 234 warships compared to the US Navy's 219.

China's explosive rise has been fuelled by the sea. The world's second-largest economy is home to seven of the world's 10 busiest ports, which are critical to global supply routes. And its coastal cities are thriving because of trade.

As Beijing's ambitions have grown, so has its arsenal of ships - and its confidence to stake a louder claim in the South China Sea and beyond.

President Xi Jinping's China certainly wants to rule the waves. Whether it will is the question.

Read the rest here.

Largely overlooked in this otherwise good story is the fact that China's navy is concentrated in the Western Pacific. The US Navy is spread all over the world.