Saturday, April 02, 2016

Some thoughts on a contested or brokered convention

I think it’s even odds that we will end up with a brokered convention and probably about 4:1 that we will at least have a contested one. And I think it likely that if no one is nominated on the first ballot and we go into full brokered mode, break out the cigars and whiskey and start looking for back rooms, that the odds of either Cruz or Trump getting the nomination are slim. One of them needs to win on the first ballot or I think the delegates will look for a fresh face.

And that’s fine with me.

Both Trump and Cruz (who I had very reluctantly supported because… he isn’t Donald Trump) are damaged goods. They have both been enthusiastically rolling in the mud and behaving like 3rd graders. Neither has a snowball’s chance in the hot stinky bad place of beating the wicked witch in November.

So who might the convention turn to in this unpleasant situation?

Despite all the talk of drafting Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney, I don’t see it. They are unpopular with the tea party crowd and if you are going to deny the nomination to the two men who actually arrived in Cleveland with a serious number of delegates then you need to show some consideration for the angry voters that sent them there. And there is no shortage of sound conservative alternatives out there that I think would be acceptable to both the establishment and the right wing of the party.

Here are a few that have come to mind as possible nominees from a brokered convention…

Sen Jeff Sessions of AL
Sen. John Thune of SD.
Former Sen. Tom Coburn of OK (I have always really liked him.)
Sen. Tim Scott of SC (the only African American Republican in the Senate)
Gov. Nikki Haley of SC
Gov. Greg Abbott of TX
Former Gov. Haley Barbour of MS (He is conservative to the core but also has cordial relations with the GOPe)

I doubt any of these people would be perfect. But I do think most would be acceptable to both the establishment and more ideological elements of the party. And most importantly all have strong conservative credentials and I feel confident that they could thump the wicked witch in November.

If either Trump or Cruz is the nominee I will skip that line on the ballot or vote for Gary Johnson.


Prior Martin said...

Nikki Haley will never carry the South. Her removal of the Confederate Battle Flag at the memorial in Columbia, and her coziness with the testosterone challenged Lindsey, has made her persona non grata and damaged goods in the South. Tim Scott is black and the South has had enough of a black presidency. If I can't have Trump or Cruz (not my favorite) I would vote for Jeff Sessions. Otherwise I would be happy for the Wicked Witch to win, it would only expedite the inevitable, the breaking of this country into several smaller countries based on culture and region. The South could rise again.

maximus said...

Had enough "black presidency"?? Despite their obvious ideological differences?? Perhaps many Black Dems, who would've likely supported Hillary, would vote for him.

Odysseus said...

"Here are a few that have come to mind as possible nominees"-

All of whom will suffer catastrophic losses in November. If Trump doesn't win, then it will actually be sort of a relief, even though I support his nomination. All this time I keep convincing myself that the republic can be saved, like a spouse in a broken marriage who keeps hanging on to an impossible situation. If Trump loses and Hillary becomes president, I can finally give up on America and start moving on to the future. Maybe that is what I should have done decades ago.

Prior Martin said...

If Scott was nominated by back room shenanigans his candidacy would be flawed from the beginning and if he attracted black Hillarites he would, if elected, have to appease them and the welfare entitlement culture continues with white tax payers paying for it.

Robert Paxton,
It's best to admit the union has been a mistake from day one and dissolve it, hopefully without a repeat of 1861.

maximus said...


You're simplistic and utterly ridiculous. You're explanation has nothing to do your first ridiculous comment. I shouldn't have even commented since it was a waste of both of our time.

John (Ad Orientem) said...

Civility please...

Unknown said...

The Republicans are in a no win situation of their own doing. If Trump is the nominee, many mainstream Republicans won't vote for him. If Cruz is the nominee, many Trump supporters won't vote for him. If neither Trump or Cruz are the nominee and the Republicans choose someone who didn't go through the primary process, many Trump AND Cruz supporters will not vote for that person. The only way Hillary isn't elected president is if she drops out after an indictment. I believe in any scenario, we will be getting another Democrat as president and the death of the GOP.


Prior Martin said...


You're right, you shouldn't have commented!