Despite low
national approval ratings and the specter of impeachment, President
Trump remains highly competitive in the battleground states likeliest to
decide his re-election, according to a set of new surveys from The New
York Times Upshot and Siena College.
Across the six
closest states that went Republican in 2016, he trails Joe Biden by an
average of two points among registered voters but stays within the
margin of error.
Mr. Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by two points among registered voters, the same margin as his win over Hillary Clinton in these states three years ago.
The poll showed Bernie Sanders deadlocked with the president among registered voters, but trailing among likely voters.
The results suggest that Ms. Warren, who has emerged as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, might face a number of obstacles in her pursuit of the presidency. The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender — including the fraught question of “likability” —
could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate.
And not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also
suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be
decisive.
Read the rest here.
I automatically assume that polls under report Trump's support by between 1-3% given the reluctance of some of his supporters to admit as much. So for Trump supporters this must be more than a glimmer of good news. That said, I remain dubious regarding the value of polls this far from the general election, recent exceptions notwithstanding.Too much can happen and one doesn't need to be a political junkie to grasp that this administration is a nuclear generator for "unanticipated events."
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