As Romney prepares to close the deal, what next?

It's not quite over, but the fat lady is warming up as I type.

Polls strongly suggest that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will win the Wisconsin Primary on Tuesday.  A Romney victory will effectively end what has been a longer than expected and very bruising campaign for the GOP presidential nomination.  No, Wisconsin won't put him over the top in delegates. But it will give him a mathematical lead whose margin is effectively insurmountable by any of the other candidates either alone or in combination.  In short Romney will become the nominee presumptive of the Republican Party.

Things to watch for after Tuesday:

First expect the so called Veepstakes to heat up with increasing speculation on who Romney will choose as his running mate.  The current front runner for that is Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  But a few other names have been floated as well including Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (very popular with fiscal conservatives) and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who is famous for a personality almost as large as his considerable girth.  A few have suggested one of his two principal rivals for the nomination might be chosen.  I think this unlikely however.  The primary campaign has simply been too acrimonious. Both Santorum and Gingrich have said too many things about Romney that could not be glossed over in the general campaign.  Although it is widely reported that Ron Paul and Governor Romney are personal friends, they are ideologically too far apart for Dr. Paul to be considered.  Romney has been roughed up rather badly and is widely suspected of being a closet moderate or worse by the right wing of the party.  Rubio is the safe bet, but whoever he picks he will need someone with solid neo-con / social conservative credentials if he is to have any hope of rallying the party base going into the general election.

Next start looking for a gradual but incremental change in tone from the campaign.  It is a given that in primary battles candidates must tack to the right (or left for Democrats) and then as soon as possible heavily qualify or simply forget many of their more extreme statements from the primary season as they try to present themselves as a centrist to the broader electorate.  It was most impolitic of one his top advisers to actually admit this on national television with his now infamous "etch-a-sketch" comment.  But it absolutely is the way it's done by all nominees of either party, if they are serious about winning the general election.  In this respect President Obama has a significant advantage as he is not facing a primary challenge.

Finally the pressure on his two main opponents to bow out of the race is going to pick up quickly.  Will they bow out?  My guess is probably not immediately. But neither of them are idiots and both have some aspirations to holding public office again at some point.  That would be jeopardized by any perception of playing spoiler or a lack of party loyalty once the nomination has been clearly decided. At the very least I expect them to tone down their rhetoric.  And of course there is the simple fact that presidential campaigns require money.  Santorum has shown an ability to run on a shoestring budget.  But even that requires some money.  Who is going to give money to a candidate who has clearly lost?  A lack of money and rapidly dwindling media coverage will sooner or later bring an end to the campaigns of the "also rans."  Dr. Paul is the exception.  He has money and a loyal following and I expect him to continue to campaign at least until Romney actually locks down the last delegates needed for the nomination.

The first phase of the 2012 presidential election is now coming to an end.  Stay tuned for the next chapter.

Dismissing economics; Santorum vows to campaign on social conservative agenda

MOLINE, Ill. — Defying almost all conventional wisdom about the 2012 election, Rick Santorum said the race would not turn on the economy and so it wasn’t important if unemployment and growth rates rose or fell.

Seeking to sharply contrast himself with Mitt Romney, Mr. Santorum waved away economics as he went after his chief rival as insufficiently conservative in his core values.

“I don’t care what the unemployment rate’s going to be,” Mr. Santorum said on Monday, the day before the Illinois primary. “It doesn’t matter. My campaign doesn’t hinge on unemployment rates and growth rates. There’s something more foundational that’s going on here.”

Read the rest here.

On Eve of Illinois Primary Romney Widens Lead

Several polls are showing former Governor Romney's lead in tomorrow's critical Illinois primary widening over Rick Santorum. The former US Senator from Pennsylvania is Romney's only remaining serious challenger. Santorum's campaign has largely conceded that they have little hope of gaining the necessary number of delegates to nail down the nomination before the August national convention in Tampa Florida. Their current objective is to deny Romney enough delegates to prevent him from being nominated on the first ballot and hope for a brokered convention. At present Romney has slightly more than twice the number of delegates as all of his challengers combined and slightly less than half the number needed to secure the nomination (1144). The mathematical wall however is daunting and Romney will likely be able to count on the support of so called super delegates who are usually loyal party establishment types. If Romney wins Illinois decisively the odds of Santorum being able to force the nomination fight on to the convention floor will be greatly reduced.

California could decide the GOP nominee

California is not exactly the GOP’s idea of home turf.

But in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, it’s the most important state on the calendar.

California’s June 5 primary, despite being the second-to-last contest, is looking more and more like it may determine whether Mitt Romney can win the Republican nomination or whether the party goes to its August convention without a nominee.

“If Gingrich drops out and Santorum can go at Romney one on one, it could be competitive all the way to California, in which case California would pretty much decide the nomination,” said John Ryder, a Republican National Committeeman from Tennessee who is an expert on the delegate process.

Part of the reason is the state’s sheer size. Because states are given three delegates to the Republican National Convention for every congressional district they have, California has a whopping 172 delegates. That’s more than 15 percent of the delegates needed to win the nomination.

California is technically a winner-take-all state, but because basically all of its delegates are awarded by congressional district, there is the possibility that they get sliced up any number of ways.

Read the rest here.

Some observations on the state of the GOP race

First a quick caveat.  As I write Ohio has just been called for Romney and Alaska's  polls have only just closed.  I don't expect to wait up for that race to be called.

Right now Romney has taken Virginia, Vermont, Massachusetts, Ohio, Idaho and Wyoming.  (Wyoming hasn't been called by the media but its going for Romney.  They have been really slow tonight in calling some obvious races.) Santorum has taken Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Dakota.  Gingrich took his native state of Georgia.  The delegate math is starting to really pile up to Romney's  advantage.

Now for a quick breakdown of the primary race by candidate. In alphabetical order...

•  Newt Gingrich: His campaign is now on life support.  In my opinion he has zero chance of capturing the nomination and absent another massive infusion of cash from his wealthy political sponsors via his Super PAC he will be forced out of the race.  Tonight he took only his home state and could not break 50% there.  His showing in virtually all of the other states was abysmal.  Many neo-conservatives are starting to note that the votes for Gingrich, though insignificant by themselves have been more than the margin of victory for Romney in several key races including Michigan and tonight in Ohio.  In short Gingrich is Romney's biggest ally right now because he is splitting the neo-con anti-Romney vote.  Look for calls to start coming in, privately at first and then publicly if needed, for Gingrich to take one for the team (or face electoral reality) and drop out of the race. This will allow the neo-cons to concentrate their votes for the first time in their anyone but Romney campaign.  From this point forward a vote for Gingrich is a vote for Romney.
• Ron Paul: "Always the bride's maid, never the bride."  Ya ya I know... Alaska is still counting votes.   Ron Paul made some impressive 2nd place showings tonight.  In fact he had a better night than any so far in the campaign.  But he has yet to put up a state in the "win" column.  Of course no one beyond the delusional thinks Dr. Paul has any chance at winning the nomination.  His ambition is to accomplish three things.  First advance the libertarian cause and lay the groundwork for an ideological revolution that will profoundly reshape the GOP. Like Moses he knows he is unlikely to live to see the promised land.  But he has lead the faithful to it.  This is a battle that will be waged over many elections.  The next generation is much more libertarian and they will be the future of the Republican Party if Ron Paul is successful.  Secondly, in the near term he wants a voice in the platform committee and a speaking slot at the convention.  If he has enough delegates he could reasonably expect that.  And lastly if there is a brokered convention (still unlikely but not beyond the realm of possibility) he may play a role in naming the GOP nominee.
• Mitt Romney:  He's still the odds on favorite to win the nomination.  But his support is incredibly weak.  He is winning through a combination of excellent staff work and enormous money advantages.  Yet almost everywhere his support remains profoundly anemic.  The only states he has really won by large margins are his home state of Massachusetts and those with large Mormon populations.  Take Virginia, a state where the party establishment pretty much rigged the election for Romney by making it as hard as possible for candidates to get on the ballot, and then prohibited write in candidates, and then topped it off by requiring a loyalty oath from all voters that they would support the nominee of the party in the general election.  Romney was only running against Ron Paul and yet Paul took over 40% of the vote!  Additionally Romney has yet to win in really conservative states absent large Mormon support. Still Romney knows how to run a numbers game and he is doing it well.  The mathematical wall he is building is starting to look impressive.  As noted above, he has been enormously aided by the inability of his mainly neo-con opposition to rally behind a single candidate.  His greatest strength right now is money and organization.  His greatest fear is that Gingrich will drop out of the race leaving him to face a unified opposition falling in line behind Santorum.  If he can get through the next big round of primaries with his opposition divided, he may finally be able to close the deal and claim the mantle of the inevitable nominee.  But hostility  among neo-cons to Romney is almost visceral.  Even if he wins the nomination he is gong to have a lot of damage control to work on within the party going into the general election.
• Rick Santorum: I can't stand the man's politics, but one cannot help but admire his unflagging perseverance.  He has waged a campaign that is not just come from behind, but really come from dead last and risen to become the only viable opponent to Mitt Romney's eventual coronation in Tampa.  And he has done it all with virtually no campaign staff or organization and a shoestring budget.  Romney has outspent him by 6:1, and still here he is.  Santorum must be feeling deeply frustrated tonight.  He has had two really huge opportunities to rock Romney back on his heels, first in Michigan and tonight in Ohio, and he came up just short in both cases.  If even a small percentage of Newt Gingrich's voters had instead backed him, Romney would be in serious trouble tonight.  Santorum's greatest strength and weakness are pretty much the same thing, his obvious and deeply felt conviction on social issues.  He is rallying the neo and social cons with his blistering culture war rhetoric but also alienating moderates.  This tends to play well in primary season when you are trying to fire up the right wing of the party.  In a general election though much of what he has said would come back to hurt him.  More than a few people have opined (and I concur) that nominating Santorum would probably set the GOP up for an epic electoral shellacking not seen since 1964.  And for the record the Democrats made the same mistake, nominating an ideologue, back in 1972.  To win the nomination though, Santorum needs to stick to populist economic themes and by hook or by crook get Gingrich out of the race.  If Gingrich drops out he has a shot at stopping Romney.  But time and the math are not on his side.

Super Tuesday polls start closing

Early results...
Gingrich takes Georgia (no surprise)... Romney leads in Virginia and Vermont.

Update I (1628 PST): Romney takes the phony election in Virginia. Vermont still too close to call.

Update II (1642 PST): Romney will take Vermont. Ohio too close to call. While Virginia has been called for Romney, it should be noted that Ron Paul is taking around 44% of the vote. That's a very bad sign for Romney.

Update III (1704 PST): Romney wins Massachusetts and Santorum is leading in Oklahoma. Ohio remains too close to call.

Update IV (1733 PST): Santorum takes Tennessee continues to lead in Oklahoma. Ohio still too close to call. Ron Paul posts strong 2nd place showings in Virginia and Vermont hoping to take Alaska.

Update V (1805 PST): Santorum takes Oklahoma.  Ohio still too close to call

Update VI (1858 PST): I am not sure why the MSM is so slow calling North Dakota.  With roughly 70% of the vote in Santorum is winning by 10 points with 38% of the vote.  I guess I will scoop the AP and MSNBC... Ad Orientem is calling North Dakota for Rick Santorum.

Update VII (2005 PST): It looks increasingly likely that Romney will pick up two more states shortly.  Idaho is going for Romney by  a landslide.  No real surprise with its large Mormon population. And Romney also holds about a 20 pt lead in Wyoming with roughly 60% of the vote in.  That strikes me as an insurmountable lead.  Alaska has not closed their polls yet and Ohio remains a nail biter.

As polls close all eyes are on Michigan

Michigan is pretty close to a "must win" state for Mitt Romney.  It is his native state and one where his father was a very popular governor.  If he loses there in the wake of his weak showings in the last four primary/caucus contests it would be hugely embarrassing.  Further it would almost certainly call into question his status as the frontrunner and the nominee presumptive of the Republican Party.  In short, if Romney loses Michigan it could throw the entire primary season into chaos.

The most recent polls taken before voting began showed Romney with a very slight lead over his rival Rick Santorum.  But that lead is well within the margin of error and from a statistical perspective amounts to a tie.

Politics in the air...

It's January in a year that will see the summer Olympics. This means it's also an election year. With this in mind I thought I would contribute my own two cents and see if I can land a job as a talking head on CNN.

The Democrats:
Barack's victory in Iowa was a small earthquake for a number of reasons. First he is NOT the choice of the party big shots. Hillary is. Secondly he does not have the money. Hillary does. And thirdly he is black. Hillary is not. The fact that he not only won but that Hillary came in third(!) adds even more weight to this remarkable upset. It was humiliating for her and it has shattered her creditability as the nominee presumptive. John Edwards is not going to get the nomination barring a major screw up on the part of Barack. Even then I think people would gravitate towards Clinton before Edwards. His support seems to mostly come from some of the institutional base of the party like big labor. Looking forward...

If Obama wins in New Hampshire tomorrow and Hillary does not come in at least a close second she is going to be in serious trouble. It may prove to be a fatal blow to her campaign. No, she won't be dropping out of the race. But South Carolina then becomes do or die for her. And there is something worth noting about South Carolina as opposed to Iowa and New Hampshire. South Carolina does have a significant African American population. Finally look for most of the also rans to drop out of the race after New Hampshire with the likely exception of Dennis Kucinich (the anti war lefty).

The Republicans:
If New Hampshire is likely to be the beginning of the end for the Democratic nominating process it will just as likely blow open the Republican race. Mike Huckabee won in Iowa but I don't see a repeat performance coming in New Hampshire. Two of the GOP's heavy weight candidates mostly skipped Iowa. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani were largely absent. McCain has been stumping hard in NH and I expect him to win there where Huckabee does not seem to be showing nearly as well. In short Huckabee's win in Iowa may well have been a fluke or an anti-Romney vote by a lot of Protestant Evangelicals who are very uncomfortable with Romney's religion (Mormonism). Looking forward...

A McCain win in New Hampshire would be even worse for Romney than Obama winning will be for Hillary. This is Romney's back yard and people there don't typically vote on religious lines. In South Carolina they (at least the Republicans) do. In this respect New Hampshire may prove decisive. It could knock out the one time front runner. But it will otherwise leave the race wide open. McCain and Huckabee will both have one victory and Giuliani is expected to make a major showing down the stretch in the super Tuesday primaries which will involve many of the larger states with more moderate Republican voters. Fred Thompson's place in the race will become tenuous if he does not place at least a respectable third in tomorrow's voting. As with the Democrats, look for the remaining also rans to start dropping out after New Hampshire with the possible exception of libertarian/isolationist Ron Paul who has a small but remarkably dedicated following. Paul has zero chance of winning the GOP nomination. But his stable support and the remarkable amount of money he has been able to raise could allow him to force the major candidates or even the eventual nominee presumptive (once we get one) to address his issues.