Silver

It's no secret that precious metals have been in a bear market for around the last seven years. Lately silver has been taking a beating that in another age would have been associated with the parlor rug. Since peaking in 2011 at just a tick under $50.00 oz silver has been in a steady downward decline that has reached the point where the spot price closed today at $14.22 oz. Even more interesting is its relationship to gold. The silver/gold price ratio (the number of ounces of silver needed to equal 1 oz of gold) has fluctuated, at times dramatically, over the last 45 years or so since gold was demonetized. But the average has been in the range of 50:1 give or take.

Currently it is within spitting distance of 85:1.

No, that's not a record. See these historical charts from Kitco. But it is the highest it's been in a quarter century. And on the rare occasions when the ratio has gotten over 80:1 it has been a signal that silver, at least relative to gold, has become over sold and is cheap.

Hmm...

[Full disclaimer: I have recently added some silver to my precious metals holdings on a speculative basis. Nothing posted on this blog should be considered investing advice. The above is purely for informational purposes and readers should do their own due diligence before making any financial investments.]

5/3 Bank

In the unlikely event anyone reading this blog is employed by 5/3 Bank I just wanted to post a short note to let you know why I will shortly be closing my account.

I just spent most of the afternoon trying to rent a safe deposit box. For those unfamiliar with the process, it should be neither complicated nor time consuming. I have done this on multiple occasions in the past at different banks and cannot recall any instance where it took much more than 15 minutes.

When I arrived at the bank somewhere between 1300-1330 I was informed there were a number of walk in customers ahead of me. So I waited patiently and was eventually informed that it would be at least an hour and half before I would be seen. It was suggested I make an appointment to which I agreed. An appointment was made for 1600. When I arrived back at the bank at appx 1545 I was told that the personal services banker was with another customer which did not overly concern me since I was a few minutes early and had an appointment. But within five minutes I was told that my appointment would be pushed back because the walk in customer was taking up more time than expected.

That's when I gave up and left. Clearly this is a bank that is not interested in my business which is just as well. If they can't manage something as simple as renting a safe deposit box in the course of several hours I cannot imagine how long I might have had to wait if I actually had one and needed to access it.

So, within the next few days I will close my account and look for a bank that is capable of handling in a timely manner the simpler bread and butter activities typically associated with that profession.

Spanish flu: the killer that still stalks us, 100 years on

One hundred years ago this month, just as the first world war was drawing to a fitful close, an influenza virus unlike any before or since swept across the British Isles, felling soldiers and civilians alike. One of the first casualties was the British prime minister and war leader, David Lloyd George.

On 11 September 1918, Lloyd George, riding high on news of recent Allied successes, arrived in Manchester to be presented with the keys to the city. Female munitions workers and soldiers home on furlough cheered his passage from Piccadilly train station to Albert Square. But later that evening, he developed a sore throat and fever and collapsed.

He spent the next 10 days confined to a sickbed in Manchester town hall, too ill to move and with a respirator to aid his breathing. Newspapers, including the Manchester Guardian, underplayed the severity of his condition for fear of presenting the Germans with a propaganda coup. But, according to his valet, it had been “touch and go”.

Lloyd George, then aged 55, survived, but others were not so lucky. In an era before antibiotics and vaccines, the “Spanish influenza” – so-called because neutral Spain was one of the few countries in 1918 where correspondents were free to report on the outbreak – claimed the lives of nearly 250,000 Britons. Cruelly for a nation that had seen the flower of British male youth mown down by German guns, the majority were adults aged 20 to 40. The mortality was the inverse of most flu seasons, when deaths fall most heavily on the elderly and the under-fives.

The global death toll was inconceivable: according to the most recent estimates, between 50 million and 100 million people worldwide perished in the three pandemic waves between the spring of 1918 and the winter of 1919. Adjusting for population growth, that is equivalent to between 200 million and 425 million today.

Read the rest here.

Ukraine: It's Official

Bart is going to do it.

The Chief Secretariat of the Holy and Sacred Synod of the Ecumenical Patriarchate announced on 7 September 2018 that within the framework of the preparations for the granting of autocephaly to the Orthodox Church in Ukraine, the Ecumenical Patriarchate has appointed as its Exarchs in Kiev His Excellency Archbishop Daniel of Pamphilon from the United States, and His Grace Bishop Ilarion of Edmonton from Canada, both of whom are serving the Ukrainian Orthodox faithful in their respective countries under the Ecumenical Patriarchate.

Source
HT

Lord have mercy!

Good news!

As some of you will be aware I was wondering what had happened to the Midwest Conservative Journal, one of those blogs that was on my check everyday list. I am very happy to report that I just got an email from Christopher J who has started blogging again. The new address is http://themcj.blogspot.com/. I will be adding it to the sidebar directly.

The Coming Schism (maybe)

No, this is not about the Roman Catholic Church. It is about the Orthodox. Sadly, evidence is rapidly accumulating that the Ecumenical Patriarch intends to take actions in the ongoing schism within the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that are all but guaranteed to provoke a major crisis within the Church. I am still praying that this will not happen but reports are mounting daily, without any denial from the EP or those closely connected to him, that he intends to issue a tomos of autocephaly to the schismatic Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kievan Patriarchate.

It is inconceivable that the Russian Church will not respond by breaking communion.

The question is, how far will the schism spread?

I think it quite possible that the Serbians and Bulgarians will side with Moscow. We can assume the ethnically Greek local churches will side with Constantinople. I am including here the Patriarchates of Alexandria and Jerusalem. The latter is of course composed of 99% Arabs, but the hierarchy is 99% Greek.

As for the rest... The Romanians I honestly have no idea. There is not a lot of love for Russia there but I just don't have any feel for how they will go. The Church of Georgia is close to Moscow. Would that be enough to provoke their taking sides in the schism? Then there is the Church of Antioch. They are already out of communion with Jerusalem over that church's intrusion on Antioch's canonical territory and they are none too thrilled by Constantinople's refusal to come to their aid. And lastly there are what may be called the micro churches... Albania, the Czech Lands, Poland and the OCA.

Thoughts...?

Catastrophe

Brazil's National Museum housed in the former imperial palace has been virtually destroyed by fire. The exact extent of the loss is not yet known but is likely to be of staggering proportions. The museum housed one of the most important collections in the Western Hemisphere. This is a cultural calamity likely to be felt around the world.

Ukrainian Autocephapy (updated)

Rumors and reports from sources of unknown reliability are circulating to the effect that the Ecumenical Patriarch may be about to do something very dangerous to the unity of the Church.

Update: The latest from the Russian Church's website seems to throw cold water on some of the alarmist rumors circulating this morning.

Poll: Trump takes a hit

 I would take this with a very large grain of salt as it seems an outlier and is inconsistent with other recent polls. That said, a newly published ABC News-Washington Post poll shows Trump taking a fairly big hit. According to the poll his support level has dropped into the mid 30% range and his negatives have jumped to around 60%. Worse, approximately half of those polled support impeachment proceedings. As this is only a single poll I would wait to see if it is backed by others. But if it is, that would be really bad news for Trump. Washington is populated by people who won't answer the call of nature without first taking a poll and Trump's very strong and sustained support among Republican voters has been a major factor in keeping the rank and file GOP Congress Critters (most of whom privately detest Trump) in line. If they think that GOP support for Trump is starting to crack two months out from a general election where the president is the issue, things could get ugly quick.

Details.

The Pope Takes the 5th

In response to the direct accusations leveled by Archbishop Carlo Viganò, former Papal Nuncio to the United States, in an eleven page indictment alleging moral corruption in the Vatican including the Pope himself, Francis had this to say...

“I read the statement this morning, and I must tell you sincerely that, I must say this, to you and all those who are interested: Read the statement carefully and make your own judgment, I will not say a single word on this.”

Source.

See also Rod Dreher's blog for the latest details.

Ex-Papal Nuncio Accuses Pope of Complicity in McCarrick Coverup- Calls on Francis to Resign

A report that is being described as a bombshell is out in the National Catholic Register (the non-heretical NCR). Unfortunately the death of Senator McCain is likely to give an excuse to the mainstream (read "pro-Francis) press/media to bury this story.

Read the report here.
HT: Dr. Tighe

Memory Eternal

The last Republican presidential candidate that I voted for. He was imperfect, and his interventionist foreign policy tendencies were dreadful. But he was the last of the old breed of Washington pols who had tremendous bipartisan stature and who was not afraid to buck his own party, or president, when he felt obliged to do so.

Poll: 70% Support "Medicare for All"

A vast majority — 70 percent — of Americans in a new poll supports "Medicare for all," also known as a single-payer health-care system.

The Reuters–Ipsos survey found 85 percent of Democrats said they support the policy along with 52 percent of Republicans.

Medicare for all has been in the headlines after a study by the libertarian-leaning Mercatus Center at George Mason University found it would lead to $32.6 trillion increase in federal spending over a 10-year period.

The study’s author, Charles Blahous, wrote in The Wall Street Journal earlier this month that even doubling taxes would not cover the bill for a single-payer health-care system.

The policy’s proponents, however, point to a note in the study showing that health-care costs would also decrease by $2 trillion by 2031 if it became law.

Read the rest here.

Schema-Archimandrite Gabriel (Bunge) : Does Orthodoxy Need Monastic Orders? (& etc.)

Schema-Archimandrite Gabriel (Bunge) is the abbot of the Monastery of the Exaltation of the Cross located near Lugano, Switzerland. He is a well-known patrologist, theologian and author of a number of books, which have been translated into numerous European languages. Fr. Gabriel converted to Orthodoxy in 2010. He addresses a number of issues related to monasticism and the prospects for restoration of communion with the Roman Catholic Church in the interview linked below.

Read the full interview here.

Venezuela is pegging its money to a cryptocurrency that’s considered a scam

Venezuela is doing something completely unprecedented. Some even say illegal.

As part of an attempt to stop skyrocketing inflation, the country is issuing a new fiat currency called the "sovereign bolivar," which will be backed by a cryptocurrency. But that cryptocurrency, called the "petro," does not trade, and Venezuela's own parliament says it's being illegally used to mortgage the nation's cash-strapped oil reserves.

"This is a smoke-and-mirrors operation typical of Venezuela — I'll believe it when I see it," said Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and one of the world's leading experts on hyperinflation. "The problem with the petro is it's a scam, it doesn't even trade."

In February, President Nicolas Maduro unveiled the oil-backed "petro" digital currency as a means to raise cash amid an economic meltdown and economic sanctions. Maduro said each petro token, which is not in circulation yet, would be backed by a barrel of the state's national petroleum. He also said about 100 million petro tokens would be issued — estimated to be worth around $6 billion.

Crypto rating site ICOindex.com, which rates initial coin offerings, labeled the petro "scam status." The site evaluates coins based on their white papers, and said while petro promised to be backed up by oil resources, "the technology and mechanisms to do so are not adequately explained." Another site, ICObench, gives it a 1.6 out of 5 stars.

Read the rest here.

Socialism + fiat money + cryptocurrency= The trifecta of make believe economics.

Traveling

Little or no posting until the 23rd.

Russian Church Reportedly Ready to Discuss Restoration of the Monarchy

I don't see this going anywhere for now. Putin is not likely to want anyone in even a ceremonial role that might hold enough moral authority to pose a threat to his rule.

Source.

LGBT ‘Catholic’ groups: If Pope can reverse Church teaching on death penalty, why not homosexuality?

Now who didn't see this coming?

 (Image HT: E. T. Ybarra)

Pope Francis Declares Capital Punishment Inadmissable in All Circumstances

It's all over the news, and the blogosphere. My views on this Pope have been firm for quite some time. Pope Francis is a heretic. And no, I am not referring to the various theological differences dividing Rome from Orthodoxy. He is essentially a liberal Protestant.

I have no idea how serious Catholics, who have been doing contortions to try and reconcile themselves with this papacy, are going to jam this particular square peg into the theological round hole. But I expect most will find a way. What alternative do they have? The Catholic concept of Doctrinal Development has been used to explain some crazy stuff before, but this is going to be on an altogether new level. To accept this is to effectively concede that there is no fundamental article of faith that cannot be revised or in this case, de facto reversed.

[Longtime readers will know that I am generally opposed to capital punishment. But my opposition is not based on Christian morality. It is pragmatic and utilitarian. And I do concede some rare exceptions.]

God, Sports and Martyrdom

There are quite a few people out there who seem to believe that He takes an interest in sports. This is not new. We know that as far back as the glory days of the Empire the Blues and Greens both called out for divine favor on behalf of their respective chariot teams in the Hippodrome. The Blues were generally supported by the upper crust of society and were associated with strict Orthodoxy. In contrast the Greens were seen as the team of the working class and were suspected of harboring at least some sympathies for Monophysitism.

Personally I have been rather skeptical of the idea. How could a just God allow something as abhorrent as the New York Yankees? See this earlier discussion by Dr. Hart. All of which said, I have been toying with another line of thinking. Perhaps God's intervention in sports is solely for the purpose of preparing the righteous for eventual martyrdom.

How else can one explain this...?