Jon Huntsman is officially out. His relatively small slice of the electoral pie will almost certainly gravitate to Mitt Romney. Romney was polling at around 30-35% with Gingrich at somewhere between 15-20% (polling data varies) and Santorum in a statistical tie with Dr. Paul. Ron Paul is in this until the last dog dies and his supporters are by and large not going to anyone else. That's probably about 15% of the vote. Perry is done, you can stick a fork in him. Look for him to drop out after South Carolina votes. The anyone but Romney crowd is going to lose because they can't agree on a candidate and more importantly, the two leading social conservative candidates both have ego's that will not allow them to step aside for the team.
Of the various candidates only two have the money and organization to go all the way, those being Romney and Ron Paul. Gingrich and Santorum are killing each other and all but guaranteeing that mittens will be the eventual nominee. If there is any hope of stopping the Romney train it probably lies with Ron Paul, though I doubt that even he could pull it off. But money alone (or more accurately the lack thereof) will cripple both Gingrich and Santorum going forward. And the next state to vote is Florida which is one of the most expensive media markets out there.
If Romney wins in SC and FL it's probably game over for the nomination. Of course that will still leave Ron Paul who is going to go all the way to the convention and looks to have a sizable number of delegates. What will they do with Ron Paul's delegates? He is going to be the only one on the ballot besides Romney in a lot of states. That means he will be racking up delegates, even if not enough to win the nomination.
This could get very very interesting.
Christ vs Kingdoms
16 hours ago
3 comments:
Per the Talmudist Krauthammer, Dr. Paul wants the delegates to make sure he has a prime speaking spot at the convention so he can publicize his platform and then endorse the GOP candidate, likely Romney. Should Paul pull a miracle and actually get the most delegates, the GOP would not allow him the nomination. You would be witness to some extreme maneuvering in order to deny him delegates. He would essentially destroy the GOP with a nomination, which would be a good thing. Unfortunately, looks like Romney has it in the bag and Krauthammer will end up being right on this one.
Romney can't beat Obama. Unless the economy takes a serious nosedive between now and November.
I think he can beat Obama, Anastasia. Unfortunately, I see that as George H.W. Bush's effective 7th term from where I sit.
One could argue Reagan's 10th term if one wished, and I would not make much of a fuss with that assessment either.
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